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Global Economy Bursting?

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Stockton, California moves closer to bankruptcy

http://www.wsws.org/articles/2012/jun2012/stoc-j18.shtml

Stockton’s city council overwhelmingly passed a resolution last week authorizing City Manager Bob Deis to declare bankruptcy if the city is unable to reach an agreement with its creditors once the state-mandated mediation process ends June 25.

The city has already slashed public services to the bone and laid off masses of workers over the last five years, including a quarter of its police force, 30 percent of firefighters and 43 percent of all other job classifications. The city suffers some of the highest rates of foreclosure and unemployment in the nation.

Stockton is, in reality, one of several major cities in this predicament. Sacramento Bee political columnist and “insider” Dan Walters laid out the situation rather bluntly in a recent article: “It’s no secret that other California cities are at least thinking about bankruptcy as their expenses outstrip revenues, including the state’s largest, Los Angeles.”

The underlying fear is that Stockton’s bankruptcy could begin a domino effect in which a number of major cities go broke, compromising not only their own bond ratings, but that of the entire state, ultimately leading to a situation—not unlike that confronted by workers in Spain, Italy and Greece today—in which finance capital directly dictates ever-more extreme austerity measures while demanding crushing interest rates for the municipal bond holdings of already wealthy investors.

As Walters notes, Los Angeles—the second largest city in the nation and a critical hub of the global economy—is navigating a fiscal crisis like Stockton’s. Another major California city, San Jose, has also openly considered bankruptcy. The vaunted center of the computer and Internet boom—third largest city in California and tenth largest in the nation—has been waging political war on its own public safety workers for months in an effort to strip them of pension benefits promised during the bubble.

The recourse to municipal bankruptcy creates new tensions between state and local governments. Although bankruptcy threatens to damage municipal bond ratings—an issue of immediate concern for the state—it has become increasingly attractive to local governments as a potentially faster and less politically risky means of eliminating the pensions and benefits of workers.

The case of Vallejo, California, is instructive. Vallejo’s city council voted to authorize Chapter 9 municipal bankruptcy in 2008, making it the largest city to do so in California’s history. Like Stockton and San Jose, the city’s politicians scapegoated workers and their “exorbitant” pensions and benefits for the fiscal breakdown. The city emerged from the process last year after using the threat of default and the collusion of labor union bureaucrats to force drastic reductions in pensions, benefits, and salaries and even alter minimum-staffing requirements for the fire department.

Dan Walters expresses rhetorically the growing allure of bankruptcy to a number of strapped local governments that have been all but abandoned by the state: “Could a bankruptcy court, citing the primacy of the federal law over the state law set aside local government labor contracts, slash pay and even reduce pension promises?”

In anticipation of such a development, the state legislature quickly passed a new law last year that requires Stockton, and all others from now on, to go through the current 90-day mediation process before filing for Chapter 9. Spurred by the prospect of many cities following Vallejo’s lead in the seemingly endless economic crisis, the legislation was meant to stave off or at least slow down municipal bankruptcies.
 
Greeks, Spanish Pull Billions Out Of Banks In Self-Protection

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/06/17/greece-spain-money_n_1603669.html?utm_hp_ref=business

In Europe's most economically stricken countries, people are taking their money out of banks as a way to protect their savings from the growing financial storm.

People are worried that their savings could be devalued if their country stops using the euro, or that banks are on the verge of collapse and that governments cannot make good on deposit insurance. So in Greece, Spain and beyond they are withdrawing euros by the billions – behavior that is magnifying their countries' financial stresses.

The money is being hoarded at home or deposited in banks in more stable economies.
 
Italy's Mass Protest: Tens Of Thousands Rally Against Cuts, Hikes, Reforms

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/...test-tens-_n_1603652.html?utm_hp_ref=business

Tens of thousands of Italian workers rallied in Rome on Saturday to protest pension cuts, tax hikes and labor reforms imposed by the government of Mario Monti and to demand more stable work, particularly for the young.

In the seven months it has been in power, Monti's government of technocrats has pushed through painful pension cuts, labor reforms to make it easier to fire workers and tax increases that have cut into the pockets of ordinary Italians already coping with hard times and youth unemployment at a staggering 36 percent.

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The day is coming for California ... firing state, county and city employees, cutting their pensions, because the taxpayers won't go along with more tax increases to pay for them.
 
From my technical analyse I am seeing a consolidation in the markets. The SnP is already at the bottom of it's weekly stochastic and wants to trend up. Bernanke is talking on Wednesday and we will see if there are any hints of a QE.

All I see now is another re-run show of the Euro and the crapped out banking system that continues to frustrate retail traders while the institutions are banking on insider info. IMOP I see a rally too November.
 
Swedes struggle to cope with tough 26-hour workweeks

Do your Swedish friends seem sluggish, with barely enough energy to lift a Stieg Larsson hardcover? It's not their fault. A study reveals that the poor lambs now work an average 26.2 hours per week, the highest weekly average since 1991. "Many [Swedes] are working during weekends and vacations when they really ought to be off the clock in order to recover," one labor union leader said.
According to a 2010 study, the average American worker logs 33.6 hours per week, but 86 percent of men and 66.5 percent of women routinely top 40 hours. The workingest country? Turkey, with a 49.7-hour weekly average. How do you say "Suck it up, Swedes" in Turkish?

http://now.msn.com/money/0618-sweden-workweek
 
California default concerns grip munis

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/46664664-...s_capital-markets/feed//product#axzz1yBMPGkts


Default fears have gripped a $20bn part of the US municipal bond market as the fallout from state budget cuts in California may threaten upcoming payments.

At issue are bonds sold by so-called redevelopment agencies, or RDAs, in the state.

The RDAs were eliminated in state budget cuts last year, a move that has ushered in uncertainty.

The legislation calling for the wind-down of RDAs included provisions to ensure their debt was repaid, but the process has proved tricky, creating increasing confusion among investors and squabbling in California over how the tax revenues will be divvied up.

Moody’s has said it may stop rating this debt due to “insufficient information” to evaluate the probability of default.

The rating agency also recently stripped $11.6bn of RDA debt of its investment grade ratings, warning of “the potential for debt service defaults”.

According to the California state controller’s office, there is about $20bn of this RDA debt outstanding.
 
Bernanke is talking on Wednesday and we will see if there are any hints of a QE
There will be QE IV (Twist is actually QE III) .... and in doing so, we drag this out to the point of becoming the very Japan that Bernanke was scolding the Japanese "zombie" banks with in 1999... go figure.

With lowering gasoline prices (oil) and low nat gas prices (despite the slight bump up over the past few days) the economy should show some rebound - again I argue that the oil market and economy are deeply correlated. Which only reinforces the notion of a rally into the fall elections. Certainly the current administration won't be opposed to that,
the institutions are banking on insider info
but it does strike me that a lot of "insiders" are making like bandits and the "moral hazard" isn't very hazardous to an awful lot of big banks who may stand to lose money in the Euro zone but Benny Bailout will be there with the cash if they cry loud enough.
 
Mr. Buffett’s views on newspapers have been a hot topic of late. Three years after telling his shareholders that he would not buy a newspaper at any price, Mr. Buffett has moved aggressively into the business, buying 63 papers and revealing a 3 percent stake in Lee Enterprises, a chain of mostly small dailies based in Iowa.

While he is less certain how he will make papers profitable in the digital age, he is confident that in certain cities, newspapers will thrive.

These are all small town newspapers where the digital age has not displaced the need for local news. The people are not interested in what happened outside their town.

I don't think it is a winning investment long term. Print news is very expensive.
 
Conversely, the New Orleans Times-Picayune has laid off much of its staff and will move to a 3-times a week paper.
 
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