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Global Economy Bursting?

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The economy created just 80,000 jobs in June, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. But that same month, 85,000 workers left the workforce entirely to enroll in the Social Security Disability Insurance program, according to the Social Security Administration.

The disability ranks have outpaced job growth throughout President Obama's recovery. While the economy has created 2.6 million jobs since June 2009, fully 3.1 million workers signed up for disability benefits.

chart63.gif


See table at: [url]http://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/chartbooks/disability_trends/sect06-text.html#chart63[/URL]

As more low wage jobs displace higher wage jobs, demand for Social Security Disability will limit the labor pool and participation rate of the working age population.

A few things:
1) There are many people who may be physically able to work certain office / white collar jobs but can not physically handle the lower paying jobs that may be available to them.
2) Where do returning vets come into the picture?

I ask the 2nd question because I note that the graph above seems to correlate a bit with the 1st & 2nd Gulf wars IIRC. Many vets came back with physical injuries, weird illness(es), and PTSD. For 1st Gulf war the number of physical casualties was under 1000 but given the rest could account for a greater number (but less than 40k overall as that is just under what our troop total was IIRC). The numbers seem to have slacked around 1995 then increased again around 2000/2001. To date we have over 40k physical casualties (just survivors) from "War on Terror" so they and the other factors would have some affect as well. I saw the numbers you quoted were in the millions, not thousands, therefore military vets going onto disability would be a drop in the bucket but I wonder if there is increased civilian reactions to military disabilities as well as an increase due to change in mentality when we the US had cultural changes including possible over-medication for presumed ADD, ADHD and so forth. Combine culture, medication affects, and economic woes (including valid affects of lack of job availability to the marginally disabled) and I think the numbers are actually to be expected, unfortunately.
 
In a follow up, last month more people went on disability (85000) than were hired (80000)
 
And of the 80,000 jobs created over 10,000 were for kids on break from school including high school teenagers not just college kids.
 
And of the 80,000 jobs created over 10,000 were for kids on break from school including high school teenagers not just college kids.

Overall I think that has been a problem across the board with jobs lost often being higher paying jobs and jobs gained often (mayhap even usually) lower paying.
 
1) There are many people who may be physically able to work certain office / white collar jobs but can not physically handle the lower paying jobs that may be available to them.
I saw a friend who was laid off from a job he took about 1974. The plant closed. He's 60. He had a back operation about 10 years ago. A nearby plant that built similar electrical equipment was hiring but they rejected him - the back. So he took all his unemployment and is applying for disability. Why not? What else can he be trained to do? And retraining him means he is trained to work for only 1 or 2 years before he is eligible for SS? Two of his friends from the same plant did get hired and were laid back off under the probationary period. The way they were handling things were they were meant they were physically not in the shape required of the new job similar though it was. For the manufacturing employees of 1960-2000...they are not going to be retrained to repair computers, write computer code, and physically, they are not able to take hard labor jobs like they could have when they were 30. They are literally Middle Class employees who are destined to be workless poor in old age.

2) Where do returning vets come into the picture?
The long terms of service will result and even more PTSD and if like the Vietnam vets I know, much of that won't show up until years later. It seems from the 40s on, my classmates begin to show the worst signs of PTSD. They appeared "normal" for the first 20 years after returning from Nam. So expect that after about 2020, there will be a steady rise in folks who cannot hold down a job. They have to get disability and go on VA medication.

Examples. One was working for a lumber company and got into an argument with a customer and punched the guy out. He was one of the most mild-mannered fellows you could imagine. He hadn't had a fight since high school. He had been having nightmares for years. He was a river boat machine gunner. The VA diaganosed him immediately with PTSD. Another suffered from PTSD rather mildly but was sprayed with Agent Orange. He looks health as a horse but isn't. He has little feeling in his legs...a non-diabetic neuropathy...and now also diagnosed diabetic although he's never carried an extra ounce of fat and was a crew manager for the county maintenance department, a fairly physical job. It also manifest itself as arthritic condition where he can barely move.

The last example is the husband of a local appraiser. His stroke 3 years ago left him in a wheelchair but he had been going to the VA for months where they had also blamed his health issues on Agent Orange.

It's difficult to say what is and is not "really" caused by what...perhaps the latter would have had a stroke anyway. But the case is made that a higher percent of Vets have "issues" than non-Vets. And remember, this next generation of sick Vets will include a lot of women as well as men.
 
Workers Receiving Federal Disability Surpasses Population of NYC

http://www.thenewamerican.com/econo...ederal-disability-surpasses-population-of-nyc

The number of workers receiving federal disability insurance payments has spiked by more than 26,000 over the past month, bringing the total sum up to a record 8,733,461, according to the Social Security Administration (SSA). Astonishingly, that number surpasses the entire population of New York City by more than 500,000.

Over the past two decades, the number of Americans employed and earning a paycheck has plummeted, according to CNS News. In June 1992, nearly 120 million people were employed in the United States, compared to about 3.3 million workers who were receiving federal disability payments — equaling to about one person relying on such payments for every 35.5 people in the labor force. CNS News reports:

When President Barack Obama was inaugurated in January 2009, there were 142,187,000 people employed and 7,442,377 workers taking federal disability payments. That equaled about 1 person taking disability payments for each 19.1 people actually working.

In May of this year, there were 142,287,000 people employed, and 8,707,185 workers taking federal disability payments. That equaled 1 worker taking disability payments for each 16.3 people working.

But the total number of Americans relying on these payments far exceeds the purported amount, as spouses and children of federal workers are also eligible for the government-provided benefits. CNS News continues:

In addition to the 8,733,461 workers taking federal disability payments in June, there were also 165,469 spouses of disabled workers getting federal disability payments and 1,899,756 children of disabled workers getting benefits. That brought the total number of beneficiaries receiving disability insurance payment in June to 10,798,686.

The SSA explains the requirement for the disability benefits as follows: “We consider you disabled under Social Security rules if: You cannot do work that you did before; we decide that you cannot adjust to other work because of your medical condition(s); and your disability has lasted or is expected to last for at least one year or to result in death.”

Expounding how the system operates, the SSA asserts that qualifications for benefits are determined based on age and the number of “credits” a person has earned from the Social Security program:

Social Security work credits are based on your total yearly wages or self-employment income. You can earn up to four credits each year. The amount needed for a credit changes from year to year. In 2012, for example, you earn one credit for each $1,130 of wages or self-employment income. When you've earned $4,520, you've earned your four credits for the year.

The question, of course, is how many of these workers are legitimately disabled, or if they are somehow gaming the system simply to receive “free” government welfare. The prolonged economic slump, the Wall Street Journal reported late last December, “has fueled a surge in applications for Social Security disability benefits,” because many Americans seek other government welfare programs as their unemployment insurance runs out.

Testifying before Congress in December, chief actuary of the SSA Stephen Goss conceded that the poor economy has substantially inflated the overall number of applicants. “When employment is good — when employers are trying to employ lots of people — people with impairments, like everyone else, find it easier to find a job,” he acknowledged.

Two studies released last year reveal a damning correlation between when people seek disability benefits and when their unemployment payments run dry. The parallel has become so obvious that some economists have gone so far as to call the SSA’s disability system an extended unemployment program.

In conclusion, while the Social Security disability insurance program was established to offer financial assistance for people no longer capable of working due to an injury or poor health, these days, an expanding group of applicants with manageable health impairments — or no impairments at all — have added to the already financially-strapped system.
 
Florida Social Security Disability Benefits Lawyer Says Congress Needs to Repair SSD Trust Fund Now

http://insurancenewsnet.com/article.aspx?id=348734

Florida Social Security disability benefits lawyerLawrence Disparti said today that Congress must act to save the Social Security Disability (SSD) program trust fund, which could be depleted in 2016, according to analysts.

“We were surprised by a recent report that says the Social Security Disability trust fund’s rapid depletion over the next few years could result in huge cuts in the benefits that millions of Americans depend on,” said Disparti.

The program cannot legally operate with a deficit, so benefits to recipients would be cut by about 21 percent.

“Congress has to act on this,” Disparti continued. “Too many disabled men and women, as well as their spouses and underage children, rely on Social Security Disability benefits.”

Social Security programs are funded by payroll taxes.

Since the beginning of 2009, more than 5 million people have filed SSD benefit claims, according to the National Center for Policy Analysis. In 2010, 8.2 million workers ages 18 to 65, and 2.1 million dependents were receiving Social Security Disability payments.
 
Social Security Disability Program Expects Pending Initial Claims To Increase

http://insurancenewsnet.com/article.aspx?id=346617

In May, more than 230,000 people filed applications for Social Security Disability Insurance(SSDI), joining the thousands who are waiting to have their initial claims reviewed.

The SSA also estimates that more than 860,000 initial claims may be pending by the end of this fiscal year, which concludes Sept. 30, 2012, according to the SSA Annual Performance Plan for FY 2013.

By the end of fiscal year 2013, the Social Security Administration (SSA) expects pending initial claims to reach more than 1.1 million.

Social Security Disability Insurance is a federally mandated disability insurance program overseen by the SSA that operates separately from the retirement and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) programs. SSDI provides monthly benefits to those under full retirement age (age 65 or older) who can no longer work because of a severe disability. The impairment must be expected to last for more than 12 months or is terminal. Individuals and employers pay FICA taxes to fund the program.
 
One thing about Vietnam, the great majority went over, served their tour and came home. Some had return tours, but they were the exception, not the rule. In Iraq/Afganistan, the same troops are returned again and again. They never have the opportunity to readjust. Much higher PTSD probability.
 
Keep your eye on the Barclay's story. It's starting to come out in mainstream press about the bid rigging.
 
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