Global Economy Bursting?

[Couch Potato]

People are obsolete

As I said years ago, this is no short term thing. With the tax situation and health care requirements, I expect manufacturing to become very agressive about mechanization and robots. Robots don't need health insurance and one person running a super fast robot is cheaper than 10 people doing the same job.

That implies that many of the jobs already lost and soon to be lost will disappear forever. And if you don't have engineering or technical skills, you are not going to be in great demand. Better work on your CDL.

You are correct in your manufacturing assessment. Current 3D printers are mostly used for prototypes, but the transition is beginning to make them the primary method of manufacturing for simple items. However, it is wrong to say they "don't need health insurance." Expensive robots are insured against destruction and have maintenance plans that are quite costly. Anyone who has ever been in an office with a copying machine should comprehend that fact.

A strong educational foundation along with a quick ability to learn and adapt are the keys to employment in the twenty-first century. Those who use the technology to create their own job are the ones in the best position. High school drop outs have little hope of employment outside of criminal enterprises.

 

[DTB]

You are correct in your manufacturing assessment. Current 3D printers are mostly used for prototypes, but the transition is beginning to make them the primary method of manufacturing for simple items. However, it is wrong to say they "don't need health insurance." Expensive robots are insured against destruction and have maintenance plans that are quite costly. Anyone who has ever been in an office with a copying machine should comprehend that fact.

A strong educational foundation along with a quick ability to learn and adapt are the keys to employment in the twenty-first century. Those who use the technology to create their own job are the ones in the best position. High school drop outs have little hope of employment outside of criminal enterprises.

These attributes are not transferable from one person to the next. Unfortunately for many, either you got it or you don't.

The cost of this type of equipment is much easier to calculate it's amortization, than a flesh and blood human. No payroll tax is another benefit.

Typically there is 10% of the population at the top end of the educational spectrum with 10% at the bottom. The missing jobs apply to the middle 80%. After having had manufacturing businesses and advising High School age youths in several capacities, to think that the 80% are suited for the "new" age is folly.

Terrell's CDL advice, sadly, is most spot on.

 

[Restrain]

Re, CDL, ATI is laying off 900 with a downturn in people coming in for training. Coal companies announced hundreds of layoffs due to new healthcare and EPA regulations. Both industries use people with limited education, so opportunities continue to be reduced for those without the ability to start their own businesses.

The 3D printers have reached a point that a company in South Africa is developing one to build airplane parts.....very large airplane parts. This to replace the tedious labor-intensive carbon fiber assembly process. And labor costs in SA are significantly lower than theUS or EU. They are also being used routinely in small manufacturing facilities (specialty auto, firearm, etc).

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

Coal companies announced hundreds of layoffs due to new healthcare and EPA regulations

This carbon tax for coal will mean most coal in the U. S. will now be exported, the only exception, Powder River Basin coal. But I predict substantial changes in all electrical generation.

More energy will be produced by natural gas to reduce the carbon tax and if not, we'll soon be exporting nat gas in liquid form overseas where it is selling for 4 x our current price. Coal is in high demand in China.

This has implications for energy costs, particularly in the NE. Cuomo and others are bashing the electric companies who are struggling against time and weather to put the genie back in the bottle. They will demand a more robust electrical system which will cost money, money that the companies are willing to spend if the state is willing to let electric rates rise...which they must if they want a better system. Or they could just trim the trees.

Truth is that the same people howling about not having juice are often the same people who fought the electric companies efforts to trim the trees and remove trees that would fall on power lines. How many times do you see a homeowner plant a tree next to the ROW for the powerpoles that supply them? Duh.... I didn't see a lot of power poles that fell on their own. I did see a lot of power poles laid over by trees falling on the lines and causing a domino effect of the poles.

 

[Riick]

....That implies that many of the jobs already lost and soon to be lost will disappear forever.
And if you don't have engineering or technical skills, you are not going to be in great demand. .

Was said as far back as the Eisenhower recession.
It's only taken 50+ years to take hold.
Never fear, unions will require manufacturers have Machine Tenders, Machine Tender personal assistants,
Machine Tender librarians, Machine Tender cooks, bartenders & bottlewashers.
Maybe not today or tomorrow, while things can be outsourced to places w/o unions,
but in 20-30 years, when all 3-4 trillion people on earth come up against capital A Automation.
As for the CDL, timing is almost too late
- you've not been paying attention to Google's driverless car ??
Capital A Automation

 

[Big ole Boy]

China's fake GDP

Accounts receivables in China Corps keep rising and rising ... never collecting ...makes GDP look good ... but it is all smoke and mirrors .......

...same with US cause we are playing the same game

...real world is contracting

 

[Couch Potato]

Don't have those down here.

Was said as far back as the Eisenhower recession.
It's only taken 50+ years to take hold.
Never fear, unions will require manufacturers have Machine Tenders, Machine Tender personal assistants,
Machine Tender librarians, Machine Tender cooks, bartenders & bottlewashers.
Maybe not today or tomorrow, while things can be outsourced to places w/o unions,
but in 20-30 years, when all 3-4 trillion people on earth come up against capital A Automation.
As for the CDL, timing is almost too late
- you've not been paying attention to Google's driverless car ??
Capital A Automation

What's a union???:new_all_coholic:

 

[Couch Potato]

These attributes are not transferable from one person to the next. Unfortunately for many, either you got it or you don't.

The cost of this type of equipment is much easier to calculate it's amortization, than a flesh and blood human. No payroll tax is another benefit.

Typically there is 10% of the population at the top end of the educational spectrum with 10% at the bottom. The missing jobs apply to the middle 80%. After having had manufacturing businesses and advising High School age youths in several capacities, to think that the 80% are suited for the "new" age is folly.

Terrell's CDL advice, sadly, is most spot on.

Actually I think it is more like 25% at the top and 40% at the bottom, but otherwise I agree.

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

It's only taken 50+ years to take hold.

Actually there were lots of antedotal tales back in the 70s about cabbies with Doctorate in Philosophy or English. They were a dime a dozen then. It was engineering, chemistry, and sciences that got the good interviews

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

cause we are playing the same game...real world is contracting

Mark Steyn, a Canadian conservative put the whole Europe mess this way

One of the bizarre aspects of media coverage since 2008 is the complacent assumption that what's happening is "cyclical" – a downturn that will eventually correct itself – rather than profoundly structural. Francine Lagarde, head of the IMF, found herself skewered like souvlaki on a Thessaloniki grill for suggesting the other day that the Greeks are a race of tax evaders. She's right. Compared to Germans, your average Athenian has a noticeable aversion to declaring income. But that's easy for her to say: Mme Lagarde's half-million-dollar remuneration from the IMF is tax-free, just a routine perk of the new transnational governing class. And, in the end, whether your broke European state has reasonably efficient tax collectors, like the French, or incompetent ones, like the Greeks, is relatively peripheral.

I am convinced that while our economy can recover somewhat, we are stuck in a structural change in the way the world operates. And it is a world issue, we are no longer USA concentric and are headed for a structural remaking of America.

Mexico wants the SW of the nation back. A 2002 Zogby poll of Mexicans showed 58% of them think the SW US should be theirs. They will get it back, and I predict that they are likely to get Texas, New Mexico, California, Arizona and perhaps Colorado. And we will cede those states to Mexico. It won't happen in my lifetime, but possibly in the lifetime of someone born today. It won't be a true "break" but rather a Balkanization of the entire N. American continent where we all become the AU - American Union, such as, the European Union. By that time the First and Second Amendments will be basically null and void. There will be no USA per se. Canada will break up into French and English, and the U. S. will consist of 3 or 4 loosely allied federations of states.

The nations will all look like Mexico anyway. Rich people will live in secluded areas guarded from the intrusions of the impoverished lower class (as opposed to Lower classes... as there will only be the workng poor and indigent, indistingushable at best.) The rest will depend upon a combination of working and government healtcare a la Cuba. We give you all the care we can but we cannot give you much because we don't have the resources.