EDWARD BERRY
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Terrell, This Is The Most.
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Global Economy Bursting?
- Thread starter Austin
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Randolph Kinney
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Run on Allied Irish Banks, Customers Pull 17% of Deposits
http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2010...banks_8152403.html?boxes=Homepagebusinessnews
The human cost of the Irish crash
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...he-human-cost-of-the-irish-crash-2136104.html
This is the result of the real estate collapse and property bubble bursting with 300,000 unoccupied homes and 100,000 households are struggling to make regular repayments on the money they owe.
The U.S. would be like Ireland except we can print the money to bail out the banks and also suspend FASB accounting standards for financial institutions, which means the banks aren't telling the truth about their financial condition.
The day is coming for the U.S. where the rest of the world is going to demand payment in something other than dollars.
http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2010...banks_8152403.html?boxes=Homepagebusinessnews
The human cost of the Irish crash
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...he-human-cost-of-the-irish-crash-2136104.html
This is the result of the real estate collapse and property bubble bursting with 300,000 unoccupied homes and 100,000 households are struggling to make regular repayments on the money they owe.
The U.S. would be like Ireland except we can print the money to bail out the banks and also suspend FASB accounting standards for financial institutions, which means the banks aren't telling the truth about their financial condition.
The day is coming for the U.S. where the rest of the world is going to demand payment in something other than dollars.
Austin
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REPORT ON THE STATE OF THE REVOLUTION: November 15-20, 2010
The reason I started this thread was to chronicle the unfolding economic revolution. One of the most effective books I have ever read was written in 1867 after the American Civil War. The writer started off by stating that the present generation would read this book and say “sour grapes” and he expected that, however the book was not directed to the living generation. It was written to a future generation of young idealists that would emerge in 175 to 200 years and pick up the pieces when the end came. I had that in mind when I started this thread. I started it for those to follow so that when they read it years from now they can see the events in the proper prospective of the times they took place.
The week of November 15-20, 2010, was a very eventful week. The powers that be in the government and establishment are coming under increasing attack. Examples: There is a cartoon going around the internet like a virus that makes a mockery of the FED and Wall Street. It is a hoot and linked in this thread. There is a documentary movie out making the rounds in theaters across the country about how the powers that be created the economic collapse. There is a new book out by two New York Times reporters giving a running history of the factors leading to the collapse naming those involved. I watched two TV interviews of these two authors one with Charlie Rose and one with Jon Steward. Rose is an establishment liberal and Steward a radical liberal show hosts. The writers are New York Times columnists. The last people in the world you would expect to turn on the establishment but they literally took the FED, Wall Street, Congress, and the administration to task like I have never heard it before. All TV talk shows are wall to wall discussions on the subject with the most vicious coming from the government's own media as I just described.
We all hear things and interpret events in the context of our life’s experiences. I hear this cacophony of raging discussions in a different context than most on this forum. Back around 1970, I was in the US Army stationed in Okinawa which is only 400 miles from Mainland China. We served 18 months tours of duty and my unit had a policy of allowing troops with good records to voluntary for easy duty during their last 3 months of their tour. The plum job was security guard at a Nike missile site on Naha Air Base on the southern tip of Okinawa. We were inside a fenced missile site a short distance from the airport runway. I got the 11PM to 5AM guard shift which consisted of sitting in the guard shack at the entrance gate and enjoying the peace of the night undisturbed.
400 miles west was Mainland China where a revolution was underway. This was the Mao Revolution in Communist China. Chairman Mao, the ruling establishment, got paranoid that his power was threatened and instituted a revolution to purge the counter revolutionary forces. I had a small AM radio in the guard shack as my only form of entertainment. At night I would tune the AM dial and listen to the sounds of the Mao revolution raging in China. It was wall-to-wall broadcast 10 deep on every spot of the dial consisting of raging lunatics chanting Mao thought and railing against the counter revolutionaries. It was a sound you have to hear to appreciate. Thousands upon thousands of voices all singing the same chant in hysterical voices reading Mao’s little red book, “Mao’s Thought.” I remember hearing a saga in English about what a messiah and super human Mao was and that at age 72 he had jumped into the river and swam 27 miles.
That is the context in which I hear the above described events. The sounds of revolution. The ranting and raving is just getting its voice in the Western world and will continue to take its course. The end result in China was a purging of those accused of being part of a counter revolution and they were sent to labor camps to do hard labor and be re-educated in Socialist Mao thought and to think in terms of the collective instead of their own selfish interest. You may hear it differently based on your particular life experiences but in my mind I know the sounds of revolution when I hear them. How this will unfold God only knows but it appears the powers that be are headed to the Western version of re-education camps to have their value system adjusted to the new paradigm. Whatever that turns out to be.
The reason I started this thread was to chronicle the unfolding economic revolution. One of the most effective books I have ever read was written in 1867 after the American Civil War. The writer started off by stating that the present generation would read this book and say “sour grapes” and he expected that, however the book was not directed to the living generation. It was written to a future generation of young idealists that would emerge in 175 to 200 years and pick up the pieces when the end came. I had that in mind when I started this thread. I started it for those to follow so that when they read it years from now they can see the events in the proper prospective of the times they took place.
The week of November 15-20, 2010, was a very eventful week. The powers that be in the government and establishment are coming under increasing attack. Examples: There is a cartoon going around the internet like a virus that makes a mockery of the FED and Wall Street. It is a hoot and linked in this thread. There is a documentary movie out making the rounds in theaters across the country about how the powers that be created the economic collapse. There is a new book out by two New York Times reporters giving a running history of the factors leading to the collapse naming those involved. I watched two TV interviews of these two authors one with Charlie Rose and one with Jon Steward. Rose is an establishment liberal and Steward a radical liberal show hosts. The writers are New York Times columnists. The last people in the world you would expect to turn on the establishment but they literally took the FED, Wall Street, Congress, and the administration to task like I have never heard it before. All TV talk shows are wall to wall discussions on the subject with the most vicious coming from the government's own media as I just described.
We all hear things and interpret events in the context of our life’s experiences. I hear this cacophony of raging discussions in a different context than most on this forum. Back around 1970, I was in the US Army stationed in Okinawa which is only 400 miles from Mainland China. We served 18 months tours of duty and my unit had a policy of allowing troops with good records to voluntary for easy duty during their last 3 months of their tour. The plum job was security guard at a Nike missile site on Naha Air Base on the southern tip of Okinawa. We were inside a fenced missile site a short distance from the airport runway. I got the 11PM to 5AM guard shift which consisted of sitting in the guard shack at the entrance gate and enjoying the peace of the night undisturbed.
400 miles west was Mainland China where a revolution was underway. This was the Mao Revolution in Communist China. Chairman Mao, the ruling establishment, got paranoid that his power was threatened and instituted a revolution to purge the counter revolutionary forces. I had a small AM radio in the guard shack as my only form of entertainment. At night I would tune the AM dial and listen to the sounds of the Mao revolution raging in China. It was wall-to-wall broadcast 10 deep on every spot of the dial consisting of raging lunatics chanting Mao thought and railing against the counter revolutionaries. It was a sound you have to hear to appreciate. Thousands upon thousands of voices all singing the same chant in hysterical voices reading Mao’s little red book, “Mao’s Thought.” I remember hearing a saga in English about what a messiah and super human Mao was and that at age 72 he had jumped into the river and swam 27 miles.
That is the context in which I hear the above described events. The sounds of revolution. The ranting and raving is just getting its voice in the Western world and will continue to take its course. The end result in China was a purging of those accused of being part of a counter revolution and they were sent to labor camps to do hard labor and be re-educated in Socialist Mao thought and to think in terms of the collective instead of their own selfish interest. You may hear it differently based on your particular life experiences but in my mind I know the sounds of revolution when I hear them. How this will unfold God only knows but it appears the powers that be are headed to the Western version of re-education camps to have their value system adjusted to the new paradigm. Whatever that turns out to be.
Last edited:
Terrel L. Shields
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That is the scary part... like the Damaclean sword. Not so much when will it drop but who will it fall on? Who will be sitting in the throne when the thread breaks? I think that there is a common goal among the old established politicos of both sides that want to throttle the Tea Party. If the economy gets back on its feet (which I doubt) soon, the Tea Party will be a memory like the Free Sliver party or populist Grange movement... But the Tea Pary will expand and strengthen if the economy remains flat. And they are going to demand radical change.. so radical it isn't going to be possible to predict which way they go...over-regulation or under-regulation...just whatever is cheaper or preceived in the short term to be cheaper.
People are seeing the hypocrisy of it all. "Core Inflation" is LOW???? gimme a break. Gasoline and medical costs are much higher. Insurance higher.... The big bills we have are up up and away. Screw the average cost per page of printer ink. Or Mgs' per $1 of computer memory. If you have created an economy where on line banking, bill paying, and business is increasing dramatically, it is ingenuine to suggest that inflation is low because your cell service is lower cost per minute....when in fact, the cost doubled when you added the internet and doubled again when you went to a smart phone. People are getting poorer and the average Joe is going to be very lucky to tread water. People are sinking all around him.
People are mad. They are also frightened by the lack of control and the apparent inability of anyone to do something quick. Bernanke is off on a path that many many economists argue is going to backfire...but some argue he is doing too little.
Nothing is going to help us IMHO with interest rates near zero. Nothing it seems, you can invest in, makes money including letting it sit in the bank on T Bills...but low interest rates are efforts to get business folk to invest in things they don't want to just to "put the money to work." Ultimately, that is a disaster waiting to happen to a lot of people.
It was a terrible mistake to take interest rates to zero...now it is going to be a difficult task to pull them off that bottom without slowing the economy even more. The Fed shot its bullets too soon and now it is hunkered behind down in the trench trying to figure out how to keep the enemy from figuring out that they have no more ammunition.
Randolph Kinney
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The historical rate of appreciation for Asian currencies (dollar-Asia index)
http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-asian-currency-appreciation-2010-11
During recessions, the dollar falls. Afterwards, Asian currencies appreciate. However, following the Asian currency appreciation, a new economic crisis develops.
What Asian currency is not showing appreciation? The Chinese yuan. Which country will precipitate the next economic crisis?
Terrel L. Shields
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Again, weakening the dollar may force China's hand. Banks there have to keep 20% or so of their cash in the bank...the central planners intend to keep their economy growing and you question if they can do it or will something "break the bank"....another round of recession here (that belated double dip) would or could be a tipping point... and we are headed there if gasoline hits $4 or more again. People simply cannot afford it.
Randolph Kinney
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Just a note, I have done several markets in north county San Diego last week and the median sold price for last 6 months is 3.7% higher than the median list price for current listings. The listing inventory is increasing with about 50% distressed sales.
It does appear that home prices will be declining as well as selling volume; it is the proverbial double-dip.
I expect the economy will worsen also.
It does appear that home prices will be declining as well as selling volume; it is the proverbial double-dip.
I expect the economy will worsen also.
Randolph Kinney
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China Assails Monetary Easing, Citing `Imported Inflation,' Bubble Risks
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...g-citing-imported-inflation-bubble-risks.html
The U.S. exports dollars and China exports good to the U.S. What don't they understand? Their policy of fixing their yuan exchange rate to the U.S. dollar allows for the royal disadvantage they are getting. Allow the yuan to float; dollars become worthless while the yuan gains in value. Of course that means a natural cut back in dollar capital flows into China and a loss of export share to the U.S.
The question is, which way do you want your disadvantage? China cannot win this game of chicken as the U.S. practices "printing" the paper and buying the paper using a fiat currency at the same time.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...g-citing-imported-inflation-bubble-risks.html
The U.S. exports dollars and China exports good to the U.S. What don't they understand? Their policy of fixing their yuan exchange rate to the U.S. dollar allows for the royal disadvantage they are getting. Allow the yuan to float; dollars become worthless while the yuan gains in value. Of course that means a natural cut back in dollar capital flows into China and a loss of export share to the U.S.
The question is, which way do you want your disadvantage? China cannot win this game of chicken as the U.S. practices "printing" the paper and buying the paper using a fiat currency at the same time.
Randolph Kinney
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Thailand calls on Asia to use yuan in trade
http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/local/206142/abhisit-calls-on-asia-to-use-yuan-in-trade
The soaring Thai baht (currency) is due to massive capital inflows of U.S. dollars as trade is conducted in the world reserve currency, the U.S. dollar.
Solution? Use the Chinese yuan as a media for payment, not dollars.
As more countries run away from the U.S. dollar for trade purposes, the U.S. will be like any other banana republic that uses the printing press to pay for its debts and imports.
http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/local/206142/abhisit-calls-on-asia-to-use-yuan-in-trade
The soaring Thai baht (currency) is due to massive capital inflows of U.S. dollars as trade is conducted in the world reserve currency, the U.S. dollar.
Solution? Use the Chinese yuan as a media for payment, not dollars.
As more countries run away from the U.S. dollar for trade purposes, the U.S. will be like any other banana republic that uses the printing press to pay for its debts and imports.
Randolph Kinney
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UN Proposes to Scrap Dollar as Sole Reserve Currency
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE65S40620100629
It's official - The United Nations is calling for abandoning the U.S. dollar as the main global reserve currency, saying it has been unable to safeguard value. The proposal is to create a new global reserve system. Russia and China have also supported the idea.
However, any reform of a trading media of exchange won't work unless trade imbalances are rectified. As long as the U.S. did not run the printing press and allowed imports unrestricted at the same time other countries practiced printing their currencies to pay for their imports, everybody was happy.
Trade wars are happening. The question is, which country will pay for it. Tariffs are an easy answer; raises revenue for the government and raises prices for the consumer. That counters the running of the printing press.
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE65S40620100629
It's official - The United Nations is calling for abandoning the U.S. dollar as the main global reserve currency, saying it has been unable to safeguard value. The proposal is to create a new global reserve system. Russia and China have also supported the idea.
However, any reform of a trading media of exchange won't work unless trade imbalances are rectified. As long as the U.S. did not run the printing press and allowed imports unrestricted at the same time other countries practiced printing their currencies to pay for their imports, everybody was happy.
Trade wars are happening. The question is, which country will pay for it. Tariffs are an easy answer; raises revenue for the government and raises prices for the consumer. That counters the running of the printing press.
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