"growth" Checkboxes On Gse Forms

[residentialguy]

I personally subscribe to the school of thought that there is no such thing as a stable real estate market. The market has been in flux since the beginning of time and will constantly and forever be in flux. It will always be either a buyers market or a sellers market or a dead market but it will never be a stable market.

Yes, there is seasonality and spikes, but trend is the median line through all of that and is often stable. Prices per quarter 300k-285k-305k-280k = Stable. Remember, these prices do not reflect adjusted prices like comps on the SCA. Fluctuations are often variances in quality, condition, view, etc. The sales trends may be affected by seasonality or may be temporary, due to artificial Government stimulus, etc.

 

[Ahhhh Yeahhhh]

Just playing the devils *** here. In the example you post above 300-285-305-280 The OVERALL trend would be a decline from 300 to 280. The form asks for the OVERALL trend which would ignore the middle segment and only look at the change from beginning to end.

At what percentage or what threshold do you declare something stable or increasing/decreasing? And what do you base that on?

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

Grand Lake o' the Cherokees. NE NEO MLS, W, SW Tulsa MLS, SE NWA MLS. S part of east of lake? - no MLS. + FSBO (very significant portion of land market) . So errors before you start.

 

[residentialguy]

Just playing the devils *** here. In the example you post above 300-285-305-280 The OVERALL trend would be a decline from 300 to 280. The form asks for the OVERALL trend which would ignore the middle segment and only look at the change from beginning to end.

No, it would not.

At what percentage or what threshold do you declare something stable or increasing/decreasing? And what do you base that on?

I don't go by percentages. I go by my overall opinion on what is supported and what makes sense. It could be that in the summer time, the prices are higher because the homes with pools are selling or special locations, etc...which are higher priced homes than the subject. The numbers could be skewed because the neighborhood is going through gentrification. I have based it upon knowledge I gained from talking to the market and local RE Agents. Don't get so wrapped up in the numbers. If you know the market, you know what's going on.

 

[Ahhhh Yeahhhh]

so you are presenting some data and then just being appraisal god?

 

[residentialguy]

I'm presenting data and then explaining it, showing support for my professional opinion. Then they will know that I am the appraisal god by my work.

 

[Meandering]

OK. And how did you support those trends? Whatever you used, it should have been in the 1004MC. Note, I did NOT say in the 1004MC grid. I said, in the 1004MC.

Whatever data is used to support trends should be in the 1004MC. The problem is that when a lot of appraiser read that they think only about that damned grid, and not about the whole form. I don't know why that is such a mental block for so many appraisers, but I know that it is. Witness this thread.

Danny,

I'm a CG, trained in narrative ALWAYS reports.

My market conditions/tends discussion is typically approximately 6 pages and incudes interest rates, current and historic, Sales, pendings and listings, in aggregate and by categories for REO/bankruptcy/court ordered, short sales and estates. It also includes the HUD report, you can see one here:
https://www.huduser.gov/portal/MCCharts/php/pdf/42089.pdf . It may contain a compare and contrast of different neighborhoods or PUDs, if I warrant it necessary to understand the comps and/or adjustments, or it may contain only a specific type or range of type and size homes in a county which share a similar locational amenity or something that distinguishes them as atypical of their surrounding "neighbors".

It also includes comments to new commercial construction, area major employers and pending or recent tax reassessments, which here, are done on a countywide basis.

The 1004MC says, see the narrative addenda. The form is too minimal to accommodate the information necessary.

.

 

[residentialguy]

The 1004MC says, see the narrative addenda. The form is too minimal to accommodate the information necessary.

Atta girl

 

[Meandering]

You CANNOT on page 2 of the URAR say, these prices vary because of these things, FAVORIABLE FINANCING, age/condition/quality/GLA/basement/garage/pool,yada, yada, and then on the 1004MC say these prices vary only because of the time frame they sold in.

THIS is a major problem with the form.

All those other variances need to be taken into account first, to understand if the market for comparables has changed. God forbid all the comps with 2 car garages sold six months ago while all the 1 car garage comps sold in the current three months. There will be a declining price trend, when the trend is only reflecting market noise, not price trends.

So instead of Fannie dorking appraisers with this form, lets all start at what impacts prices, before we can even guess if prices have changed.

Interest rates,
Down payment requirements along with credit score range,
employment in the area
Disaster impacts
Regulation and law impacts including expected changes to zoning, taxes, yada, yada
Utilities expense (when we had the '70s oil crisis, house were built with fewer and smaller windows to conserve heat) As utility expenses increase, or decrease, desirability of certain home sizes and designs change. Remember in '08 when gas was $4.00 a gallon? We saw lots of "soaring cathedral ceilings" being blocked in with sheets, or false floors, anything to keep the heat down.
Gasoline expense. As commuting becomes more expense, neighborhoods farther away from employment centers become less desirable. Most people don't want a $400-$600 a month bill to commute to a job.
Infrastructure issues. The new mall opening down the road is causing a traffic jam and access to the neighborhood issues, certain times of day.
Headline News. Holy cow a guy north and west of here was paying the sewage company bill for 10 years and just recently found out, his sewage was being piped into the storm drains and out into the river. Everyone is suing everyone else, with the nightly news warning area residents, they alone are responsible to know where their sewage is going. Doesn't matter they have been paying sewage bills like, the sewage company has no responsibility to know if their homes are connected.

And yet none of these drivers of price changes are included in the 1004MC.

GHEE I WONDER WHY.

Smoke and mirrors, see it, believe it.

.

 

[Ahhhh Yeahhhh]

You CANNOT on page 2 of the URAR say, these prices vary because of these things, FAVORIABLE FINANCING, age/condition/quality/GLA/basement/garage/pool,yada, yada, and then on the 1004MC say these prices vary only because of the time frame they sold in.

THIS is a major problem with the form.

All those other variances need to be taken into account first, to understand if the market for comparables has changed. God forbid all the comps with 2 car garages sold six months ago while all the 1 car garage comps sold in the current three months. There will be a declining price trend, when the trend is only reflecting market noise, not price trends.

So instead of Fannie dorking appraisers with this form, lets all start at what impacts prices, before we can even guess if prices have changed.

Interest rates,
Down payment requirements along with credit score range,
employment in the area
Disaster impacts
Regulation and law impacts including expected changes to zoning, taxes, yada, yada
Utilities expense (when we had the '70s oil crisis, house were built with fewer and smaller windows to conserve heat) As utility expenses increase, or decrease, desirability of certain home sizes and designs change. Remember in '08 when gas was $4.00 a gallon? We saw lots of "soaring cathedral ceilings" being blocked in with sheets, or false floors, anything to keep the heat down.
Gasoline expense. As commuting becomes more expense, neighborhoods farther away from employment centers become less desirable. Most people don't want a $400-$600 a month bill to commute to a job.
Infrastructure issues. The new mall opening down the road is causing a traffic jam and access to the neighborhood issues, certain times of day.
Headline News. Holy cow a guy north and west of here was paying the sewage company bill for 10 years and just recently found out, his sewage was being piped into the storm drains and out into the river. Everyone is suing everyone else, with the nightly news warning area residents, they alone are responsible to know where their sewage is going. Doesn't matter they have been paying sewage bills like, the sewage company has no responsibility to know if their homes are connected.

And yet none of these drivers of price changes are included in the 1004MC.

GHEE I WONDER WHY.

Smoke and mirrors, see it, believe it.

.

Amen!!!