"growth" Checkboxes On Gse Forms

[DWiley]

My offer is real and it still stands. Show me how it is anything other than useless and I will write you a $10000 check. One thing about me is I am full of crap, but I ain't a liar. I really want to see how it is useful and I am willing to pay.

As is mine. But, stories and anecdotes won't cut it. Need an actual example.

By the way, the numbers were 130000, 129500, and 129000, and you marked "declining" ?? Seriously?

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

- I will make an offer

Statistically speaking the margin of error is outside any possible rigorous mathematical certitude if you lack a significant number of sales. You still apply the same judgment to the information you can do empirically. If you can, I will send you a free copy of Nicholas Taleb's "Fooled by Randomness".

The MC form has the same problem the polls did in the election. The margin of error was too great to say ANYTHING about the race so they applied their judgment that Hillary was going to win. Bad call... https://mishtalk.com/2016/08/07/nas...lver-about-election-odds-in-series-of-tweets/
Note the date Taleb is making this judgment - August...

The MC form is NOT statistically significant very often and is a waste of time.

 

[Ahhhh Yeahhhh]

As is mine. But, stories and anecdotes won't cut it. Need an actual example.

By the way, the numbers were 130000, 129500, and 129000, and you marked "declining" ?? Seriously?

That was the UW's response exactly. But why not mark declining? Its clearly a decline isn't it? If it isn't a decline then what is it and why?

 

[DWiley]

The MC form is NOT statistically significant very often....

As my formal education is in Mathematics/Physics, I understand that argument well. I have heard it often, and it just supports my assertion that many equate the grid at the top of the form to the actual form.

The grid is NOT the form. The grid is part of the form. If the grid has insufficient data for meaningful analysis.....see prior posts

 

[Ahhhh Yeahhhh]

As my formal education is in Mathematics/Physics, I understand that argument well. I have heard it often, and it just supports my assertion that many equate the grid at the top of the form to the actual form.

The grid is NOT the form. The grid is part of the form. If the grid has insufficient data for meaningful analysis.....see prior posts

This is what makes the FORM useless. You just admitted that the FORM is useless. You owe me some money bro.

 

[DWiley]

This is what makes the FORM useless. You just admitted that the FORM is useless. You owe me some money bro.

Sorry, that fact that appraisers ignore big sections of a form does not mean that the form is useless. It just means that those appraisers are ignorant about proper procedure Though I admit that some know how to do it correctly but choose not to because they just don't want to do the work.

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

it just supports my assertion that many equate the grid at the top of the form to the actual form.

It is pushed as an important part of the analysis of markets...but just where are proofs that the analysis of the market is improved by the form. And how is it improving the quality of valuation? And, so what purpose does it serve except to punish the better appraisers and confuse the rest of us? How can narrative appraisers not be failing badly by not using this remarkable form?

 

[Ahhhh Yeahhhh]

Here is the deal. Appraisers that were doing a market analysis prior to the 1004MC are still doing the market analysis. Appraisers that were just checking the boxes on page 1 are just fabricating numbers for the 1004MC form.

 

[DWiley]

And, so what purpose does it serve ...

The purpose it serves is to force all appraiser to provide some kind of information - The bigger purpose, to provide actual support, has not been realized because so many are too stubborn to simply follow the published directions. Instead they would rather stand on a soapbox and proclaim how their positions on the proper way to fill out the form are superior to the instructions provided by the very entity that created the form.

The form is not ideal in its design and structure. So what? No form is perfect. Completed correctly it can provide a lot of good support for other sections of the report.

I am done. This form will not be with us much longer anyway, but those griping the most will not be happy with the new way.

 

[djd09]

That form is worth nothing. It is so bad i tell my readers not to rely on it.