Housing Bubble Bursting?

[DeanHarris]

Thank you Dean!!! That's pretty much what I'm seeing in Brevard County.

Most of us here are Realtors, we just appraise instead of list and sell. Any Realtor that prefers to tell it like it is is more than welcome here!!!

Hi Pamela,

Nice forum you have here- quality posters. Good for you.

I suppose if you appraise property at least you get paid something.

I just started in November. The most free work I've ever done was trying Real Estate full time...and I read every book to help prepare me.

The way I see it (fwiw), there has been no major media stories on the rediculous excess inventory far exceeding any possible demand.

When they report on the numbers from March...they'll be some alarmists...and rightly so.

People are window shopping only, for the most part. They want to see big price drops before taking the next step.

What mike touched on was what was fueling the market. People selling their house for big $$$'s and stepping up into a bigger home.

During Open Houses, those most interested in actually buying had another property up for sale, and they needed to sell before buying. :new_silly:

Interesting you mentioned many of you were Realtors, but doing appaisals instead at the moment. I'm a Notary and just got a big book on how to be a good Mobile Signature Agent.

I feel that people who will buy are long term buyers. They have become more educated and careful about making a purchase with such high numbers relative to how Florida used to be.

When I joined the Central Florida Realty Invesment Association- I expected it to be a ghost town.

Opposite was true. It was packed.

Just my opinion, but I believe those potential buyers want to see a large chunk of that "greed profit" be taken away before they consider buying.

People aren't OK with giving someone 100% profit in 2yrs now that there is plenty out there.

 

[DTB]

It currently costs me a lot less on a monthly basis to own than I would pay in rent and I doubt the prices will roll all the way back so I could get back to this property tax bracket for my last recession-based purchase price. Why should I move to someplace where I can't surf - just to bank some cash? For me, a house is a place to live, not an wealth building system. I'll leave the Forbes 500 obsessions to guys like you, thanks very much.

BTW, I hope you're not pushing SD real estate - if you were your investors would probably be losing money right this moment.

As I would have expected.
nobody putting their $$$ where their mouth is. Lots of armchair QBs.

 

[Dale Smalley]

I just did my first couple of market correction appraisals where the values have not gone up and the gap between listings and closing are much smaller. Only one MB went balistic and declared my value was too low even though I used the 3 most recent sales in the complex. They were still counting on last years 20+% increase in prices. He complained that I killed his deal etc... but the appraisal is accurate and those are the true facts. I am getting more pre-foreclosure orders and REO is Back!
I was once told that 99% of all statistics were made up on the spot so I don't believe any of the Govt reports. The Miami metro is made up of many small market segments so if I put them in a group and get an average most would be wrong. We are starting to see lots of advertising for pre-construction units where before you had to have an inside contact to get on the list and in some cases had to put in $5000 to be on the VIP list. So If they want to know what markets are up or down HIRE AN APPRAISER.

 

[George Hatch]

Mike,

You obviously don't surf, so I don't expect you to understand nor does it matter to me if you do.

 

[DTB]

Mike,

You obviously don't surf, so I don't expect you to understand nor does it matter to me if you do.

Only your neighborhood has surfers?

George usually you make more sense, except regarding the bubble. It must be a sensitive issue.

 

[moh malekpour]

The true test for bubblologists. Have any of you sold your personal residence at the perceived top of the market and moved into one of the oodles of shiny, new beautiful rentals that are available in your market.

IF I felt the buble was coming my way, it would be prudent to sell at say 500K, lock it up at 5%+ and live for free. No repairs, no maintenance and still preserve my capital for the next buying opportunity.

Any bubblers doing this?

Mike,
What are trying to say? I am sure; you have been appraiser for many years and a homeowner as well. You should know that residential homeownership is not for the purpose of investment. No typical homebuyer looks at a home based on its rent. People buy homes because they like it for many tings but renting is not one of their major concerns. For that reason, I have never done an income approach for my residential appraisals.
Your suggestion doesn't make sense and doesn't prove anything regarding the housing price.

 

[DTB]

So if an IRA is for RETIREMENT you don't move it in and out of different investment vehicles????

And if you have zzz$$$ for housing, you are not looking for the biggest bang for the buck either?

The only thing I'm trying to "prove" regarding housing prices is that I haven't seen a bubbler with the conviction to sell at the "top" and stay on the sidelines for awhile.

I do many appraisers who have remained on the sidelines their whole career.

 

[Fred]

Greg,
So, you are going to leave the appraisal business to buy up all those foreclosures at 70% of market value (2003 prices)?

If you use the search function, you will find that bubble babble began on ths forum in 2002. Interesting now that 2003 prices would be bottom fishing. I am waiting for the 1998 prices. :icon_smile:

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

"The only thing I'm trying to "prove" regarding housing prices is that I haven't seen a bubbler with the conviction to sell at the "top" and stay on the sidelines for awhile.

I do many appraisers who have remained on the sidelines their whole career."

Actually I have seen a couple of people do that. One local investor type has been on the sidelines for over 2 years. Told me recently that he wishes he stayed in longer, but tops are impossible to pick. He did invest in gold however, so he came out alright. His spin was that rents were not keeping up with prices, so why buy property to rent. He argues that when the market gets tighter, rents will increase as demand from displaced homeowners increases. So he is sitting on some of his older better properties and intends to do so.

I doubt anyone can really pick a top especially in a specific area.

And I agree that we as appraiser tend to stay on the sidelines. I am always behind the 8 ball in terms of finding I am appraising bargains that I didn't know were on the market. One investor I know rents pasture for his cows and he has about 300 momma cows. Seems he finds the owners willing to sell after a few years and usually buys a bargain. Averages about 1 property per year and turns about $100,000 to $400,000 per sale. I have never been presented with an opportunity to buy a bargain. I seem to be expected to pay a premium over market for property, and I am not going to do that. I have tried several times to buy repo property by a client, but when I have to appraise it there is a conflict of interest and violation of USPAP, and otherwise, seems someone always has dibs on it. The only property lately the bank wanted me to buy was a very old house needing a lot of work with a MH, a Shop, and small land tract about 20% more against the place than it would appraise for...don't need it that bad. They will likely finance at favorable terms to someone with the bank. There are a lot of things worse than sitting on the sidelines with Halliburton ($13) and Sandisk ($20)stock.

 

[Couch Potato]

The true test for bubblologists. Have any of you sold your personal residence at the perceived top of the market and moved into one of the oodles of shiny, new beautiful rentals that are available in your market.

IF I felt the buble was coming my way, it would be prudent to sell at say 500K, lock it up at 5%+ and live for free. No repairs, no maintenance and still preserve my capital for the next buying opportunity.

Any bubblers doing this?

As a matter of fact my one year lease is up on July 1. I may extend the lease a bit, but that should be a decent time to enter the market again as price have already begun to slip in this area. Then again, my wife thinks maybe we should stick with renting (as you noted fewer headaches, especially in a hurricane area.) Currently, renting the house I'm in is cheaper than buying by just over $200 a month, not counting any unexpected expenses and purchasing with 20% down using a 30 YR fixed loan.