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Housing Bubble Bursting?

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Bobby Bucks said:
The disappointment level in here has risen 8% in the last week for no other reason than that the bubble hasn't occurred yet. :-)
Maybe. However, those who proclaim there are no worries are located in Indonesia. So ... you moving soon are ya Bucks? :flowers:
 
July 17, 2006​
Colorado Realtors Help Growing Number of Homeowners Avoid Foreclosure


Colorado leads the nation in the number of foreclosures. Over 10,000 homes across the state are in the pre-foreclosure process, according to foreclosure.com. Mortgage defaults are expected to gain momentum as interest rates rise, energy costs increase and consumer debt ratios continue to remain the highest in history.

Denver County tops the list with 2,703 pre-foreclosures, meaning homeowners are at least three months late paying their mortgage and there is a recorded “notice of default” against the property, announcing the lender’s intention to foreclose. At this stage, according to Colorado foreclosure law, the 100 day auction countdown begins.

Other areas with rising mortgage foreclosures include Westminster with 1,749, Adams County with 968, Jefferson County with 937, Colorado Springs with 935 and Greeley with 762 recorded foreclosure notices.

While many homeowners receiving an NOD (notice of default) don’t know what to do, licensed real estate agents nationwide are now seeking advanced training on how to build their businesses by assisting homeowners avoid foreclosure. This comprehensive short sale broker/agent training system touts listing the “upside-down” property for sale and subsequently negotiating a discount with lenders on the entire mortgage balance owed.

The process is known as a real estate short sale. Specially-trained real estate professionals are now in high demand by not only homeowners, but also mortgage lenders who can save tens of thousands of dollars by avoiding costs associated with completing a foreclosure process against a defaulted borrower.

By educating themselves and their clients, licensed real estate agents and brokers can offer a variety of solutions to homeowners, as well as the ability to sell the equity-deficient home at no out-of-pocket cost to the homeowner. Brokers then earn an industry-standard sales commission paid by the lender, not the homeowner.

“A real estate agent or broker has a vital job in the pre-foreclosure market niche. Homes with negative equity are growing exponentially across the US, “ says Margot Murphy, The Short Sale Pro and licensed broker in Portland, Oregon. “Now, more than ever, an agent or broker can truly help a homeowner out of a tight situation by selling the equity-deficient home and creating win-win-win-win situations for all parties involved.”

Ms. Murphy is the founder of RealEstateProGuides.com and has taught this pre-foreclosure niche market strategy to thousands of licensed real estate professionals nationwide.

Advanced short sale training has been widely received in the California markets of Sacramento and San Diego, and now Murphy and her crew are heading to Colorado for intensive short sale training with broker/agents on July 27th.

In a traditional listing, Realtors™ help their clients list, market, and sell their home to a buyer. In the case of a short sale transaction, the agent or broker not only lists, markets and sells the home, but the broker also negotiates directly with the lender to settle the mortgage payoff at a discount of the balance due on the note. The broker/agent is paid a well-deserved commission by the lender. This home sale strategy can prove advantageous for homeowners who desire to meet their loan obligation, yet they are ready to move on and rebuild.

“This type of real estate listing is challenging, but also very rewarding because everybody wins. The bank or lender wins, the buyer wins, the seller wins and the broker who closes the deal wins because the lender pays the sales commission. I teach Realtors™ how to perfect this important strategy because I am convinced it’s only going to grow as a market sector in the coming years,” Murphy said.

“If enough agents are equipped with this knowledge,” Murphy said, “it literally can help hundreds of thousands of homeowners across America.”
 
Thursday, July 20, 2006


Foreclosures on the rise in the South


Real estate investors looking to cash in on foreclosures note rising foreclosure rates around the South:
A six month housing market analysis reveals Tennessee is moving "up" the list of Top Ten states for mortgage foreclosures for the past six months.

The state ranks seventh for all of 2006, with Georgia coming in first for the year and second for the month of June, according to newly released study from Foreclosure.com.

According to the Foreclosure.com 2006 Mid-year Market Analysis, Georgia ranks highest among states in foreclosure rates to date in 2006, followed in order by Indiana, Colorado, Michigan, Texas, Ohio, Tennessee, South Carolina, North Carolina and Utah.


Another report says Florida and Georgia are "foreclosure hotspots", and cites what some might consider predatory lending practices as partially to blame:
"This time around, however, the situation is exacerbated by the widespread use over the last five years of exotic mortgage products such as so-called option adjustable rate loans with very low start rates and high negative amortization. People bought homes they really couldn't afford, and now they're losing them as these loans reset to market rates and they can't find affordable refinancing options," Ms. McGee said.​
Yet another report cites growing problems with "piggyback mortgages", or so-called "suicide loans":
According to Gill, piggyback mortgages, which are a combination of two loans packaged together and closed simultaneously, represent just one of many non-traditional mortgages that have put homeowners at risk of losing their homes.

Typically for people with little or no down payment, the amount for the first mortgage is set so it does not exceed 80% of the home's value. This allows the borrower to avoid paying Mortgage Insurance (MI). The remaining loan amount is financed as a second mortgage by way of a Home Equity Loan or a Home Equity Line of Credit and "piggybacked" onto the first.

According to SMR Research, lenders and mortgage brokers whose commissions are based on loan size, have aggressively promoted these loans because the first-lien portion of piggybacks tends to be larger than standard first mortgages.

Gill warns that borrowers with these loans should be ultra concerned because they are concentrated in metropolitan areas with the greatest risk of experiencing a fall in housing prices.

"If borrowers start to go into default in a declining property market, they will be committing financial suicide by having their credit destroyed and still being burdened with a debt well after they lose their homes," said Gill.

 
California foreclosures increase

California foreclosures increase


IRVINE
July 18, 2006 8:04am

With 10,031 properties entering some stage of foreclosure, a 15 percent increase from the previous month, California leapfrogged past Florida to document the second most foreclosure filings of any state in June, according to a report Tuesday from RealtyTrac Inc., an Irvine-based company that publishes a national database of pre-foreclosure and foreclosure properties.

California's foreclosure rate of one new foreclosure filing for every 1,218 households inched above the national average for the first time in three months, it says.

Nationally, 88,195 properties went into some stage of foreclosure in June, a decrease of 5 percent from May but still a 17 percent increase from June 2005, according to RealtyTrac’s report. The report also shows a national foreclosure rate of one new foreclosure filing for every 1,311 U.S. households during the month.

"New U.S. foreclosures dropped to their lowest level of the year in June, despite some of the sensational and misleading figures that we've seen reported recently," says James Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac, in a written statement. "The fact is that most states, with the notable exception of California, Ohio and Nevada, reported decreased numbers of foreclosure filings in June."

Despite posting the nation's highest foreclosure rate for the fourth month in a row, Colorado foreclosure activity declined in June, says RealtyTrac. The state reported 3,695 properties entering some stage of foreclosure, a 12 percent decrease from the previous month but still a 61 percent year-over-year increase from June 2005. With one new foreclosure filing for every 495 households, the state's foreclosure rate was 2.7 times the national average, the Irvine company says.

Nevada's foreclosure rate jumped from seventh highest to second highest in the nation thanks to a 13 percent increase in foreclosures from the previous month. The state reported 1,244 properties entering some stage of foreclosure, more than twice the number reported in June 2005 and a foreclosure rate of one new foreclosure filing for every 697 households -- 1.9 times the national average.

Georgia reported 4,390 properties entering some stage of foreclosure, a decrease of 24 percent from the previous month and a decrease of 11 percent from June 2005, but the state's foreclosure rate of one new foreclosure filing for every 705 households still ranked as the third highest in the country.
 
Tuesday, July 18, 2006 03:07 AM

SACRAMENTO -- ForeclosureS.com, a northern California based real estate investment advisory firm and publisher of foreclosure property information, reported today that home prices in several major California markets had started to fall as a long awaited price correction in overheated coastal markets began.

"We're not going to see a price crash like we did in the early 90's," said ForeclosureS.com president Alexis McGee. "Back then, overbuilding by developers led to excess inventory and what we call competitive liquidation of unsold new homes. This time, the inventory just isn't there."

Ms. McGee said that rising foreclosure activity was a function of cooling housing markets. She said "too many people have been using their homes as ATM machines to manage consumer debt. Now that interest rates are coming back up to normal levels, the refinance window is closed to these people and they are being squeezed by rising home payments."

Defaults in several western markets, said Ms. McGee, are on the rise as markets cool down and interest rates move up. "In Colorado, about 4,200 properties went into foreclosure in May. As of mid-July about 10,500 properties have entered foreclosure," said Ms. McGee. She added that Colorado was a bit behind the rest of the nation in economic recovery, but was strengthening.

In Arizona, Ms. McGee reported, a little over 8,000 properties were in foreclosure, with almost 6,000 in the Phoenix metro area. "You have to understand that 65% of Arizona's population lives in Maricopa county. What we're seeing across the west is that most foreclosures are occurring in major urban centers."
 
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Randolph I wonder if any westerners are investing in real estate in Indonesia. US computer software companies consider them pirates with regard to property rights. They do still advocate the art of caning which may win points with some in here. :)

Back to the bubble…..there was a positive non-bubble real estate article in the Wall Street Journal on July 22. here is a link

http://online.wsj.com/google_login..../SB115352070003714080.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
 
Well Bobby, Singapore is notorious for caning as a form of corporal punishment for misdemeanor offense.

Indonesia is a Muslim country (over 90% of the population) and some parts of it are governed by Sharia law; Islamic law code based upon the Koran. This is where they cut off your hand if you steal; cut of body parts for committing the offense, for example, cutting off your tongue for bad speech.

Bobby:
Back to the bubble…..there was a positive non-bubble real estate article in the Wall Street Journal on July 22. here is a link

WSJ:
As the nation's housing market cools, there's a rush to snap up undeveloped property as buyers stake their claim on everything from New England creek-front parcels, to mountainous woodlands in Tennessee, to big-sky vistas in Montana.
The article is giving me the impression of speculators gone wild. You might even compare this kind of speculation to the froth of the last stock market crash.
 
http://money.cnn.com/2006/07/25/news/economy/homesales/index.htm

Realtors: Home sales now a 'buyer's market'
Sales fell for third straight month in June; nearly flat prices make double-digit gains seem like a distant memory.
By Chris Isidore, CNNMoney.com senior writer
July 25 2006: 10:47 AM EDT


NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- It's official - even the nation's leading group of real estate agents now says it's a buyers' market in housing, as a soaring supply of homes for sale means nearly flat prices and longer waits for sellers.

The news came in the National Association of Realtors' report for June, which showed that home sales fell to the slowest pace since January last month while price gains were the smallest in over a decade.


The industry group said sales of existing homes fell to an annual rate of 6.62 million in June, compared with a 6.71 million pace in May. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had forecast sales would slow to a 6.60 million rate.

June was the third straight month of slower sales, and the lowest pace of sales since the seasonally adjusted number for January. The pace of sales is now 9 percent year-ago levels, and was down in each of the four regions of the country.

The median home price, which reflects the point at which half the homes sold cost more and half cost less, edged up to $231,000 from $229,000 in May.

But that marked only a 0.9 percent increase from a year earlier, which is the smallest year-over-year gain in home prices since May 1995. As recently as October, prices had jumped a record 16.8 percent from a year earlier due to tight supplies and bidding wars among buyers.

"The change in price performance is directly tied to housing inventories - a year ago we had a lean supply of homes and a sellers' market, with monthly home sales at an all-time record high," David Lereah, chief economist for the group, said in a statement. "Sellers have recognized that they need to be more competitive in their pricing given the rise in housing inventories."

The inventory of homes for sale on the market is now at 3.7 million, up a whopping 39 percent from a year ago. That resulted in a 6.8-month supply of homes for sale at the current sales pace, up from only a 4.4-month supply in June 2005.

The Realtors statement said the market has shifted to a "buyer's market," which it said is good news for those shopping for a home even if it posed a problem for those looking to sell.

"People who were discouraged by the bidding wars that were so common over the last few years are finding more choices now," said Thomas Stevens, a Realtor from Vienna, VA., who is president of the group.
 
Official buyers market

Now lets see how long it takes for it to go from a buyers market to an official bargain hunters market, then to an official bottom feeders market, then to an official banks' market where price is set,

then to an official centrally planned housing market where dwellers get a place to live in exchange for meal tickets and food lines .......
 
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