Housing Bubble Bursting?

[Big ole Boy]

World War III

If Hezzbalah fires a chemical weapon at Israli troops this weekend ....

.... I would say we could be serously looking at checking the box "unstable" in our neighborhood descriptions on Monday.........

..... and maybe a (-1) in the external box in the cost approach .....

.... just kidding .......

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

When Israel gets enough, one nuke over Damascus, one over Tehran. War is over.

 

[Pamela Crowley (Florida)]

As expected, the phrase "New Paradigm" is out, "Soft Landing" has just arrived DOA, and now they're casting about for another variation of "it won't happen this time because things are different".

I heard the next buzz phrase they were test driving is "the new normal". Time will tell how that one works out but I'm not enthusiastic for that one, either.

That's funny! Nope, I don't think 'the new normal' will work either.

 

[Steve Owen]

"the new normal"

That phrase is already taken, George. It refers to gasoline at more than $3 per gallon.

 

[Big ole Boy]

The new normal

If we can just get that new normal to have the "meaning" of a "working mean" that allows the global economic system to find another way to shore up the US Economy into perpetuity ......

 

[Steve Owen]

If...

If there is a housing bubble burst, even a localized one, here is the tall and short of the role appraisers will have played:

http://appraisersforum.com/improving-profession/108159-new-headache-homeowners-inflated-appraisals.html

 

[Randolph Kinney]

Lets face it, when is the appraiser not at fault when house values decline?

If the housing industry takes a serious downturn where the loan value is no longer above market value and many homeowners and lenders take a hit, the outcry for government intervention will cause politicians to act. It will be stated most strenuously that the appraisal industry needs reform and new safeguards need to be added to protect the public trust.

And of course, there will be Salem witch trials (bad appraisal lawsuits). The majority of the outcome will be to hang the guilty bastards. The good and the bad appraisals will all be treated with the same contempt.

After the purge, and government bailout, life will go back to the "old normal".

 

[Big ole Boy]

Freddie Mac's TV commercials

Well as Freddie says on TV; the real estate industry accounts for about 20% of the US economy and that being said, we know that about 20% of the US economy is over-valued from a systemic errosion of "old normal" ......

..... of course, the other 80% of the economy is valued in the "new normal" as well ......

whew, .........

and 30% of all publically traded companies "back date" their options when the stock is trading low ..... to overstated income on their financials behind the stockholders back ........ and the retract that income and give it to corporate executives and compensation ......

...... I think we will have to return to a barter system to rid ourselves of the "fission matter" of a capitilzed democracy gone besserk ....

.... well, I am starting my fall garden today ....... new batch of tomatoes ....

..... may need to expand my operations .....

 

[Big ole Boy]

Barter comedy

How can internet bartering find a place in the real world?

Below is an attempt to be more comical than realistic – perhaps through comedy all things converge.

Years ago young minds thought of the internet and thought of elaborate trading systems for goods. Today we have big internet and yet we have not harnessed the power of bartering goods across the country on an individual level.

Consider the fact that the trade would probably take ten years if we did not use FED-EX and a central acceptable platform for the lengthy elaborate trade. Cost of shipping would have to be the only expense incurred by the sender and receiver of the goods.

So if a guy has got …. Say five chickens, and another guy needs three hammers and another dude needs an appraisal …… how can the trade be made with a super-computer on the internet so that a hyper-collective can make viable shipping trades that remove Uncle Sam from the equation?

I can appraise and I will do it for 5 chickens (cleaned and USDA inspected) + I want a used lawn mower? ……

If the internet is so great – why can’t we trade in a quantum hyper-conscious collective space …… anybody need my fresh grown home tomatoes? …… as part of my trade for that lawn mower? …… Kray computers and the internet have not figured this one out yet or have they ? ……

Now, how can I get me propane powered electric generator and some propane for my appraisals?

 

[Randolph Kinney]

California Job Market Has Pronounced Slowing

Financial hiring, construction down

By Dean Calbreath
UNION-TRIBUNE STAFF WRITERJuly 22, 2006

<snip>

Peter Morici, economist at the University of Maryland, said the number of jobs added recently nationwide has been “well south of the number needed to keep unemployment from rising.”

In California, the weakest segments in the jobs market are two of the areas that have seen the greatest growth in recent years: construction and real-estate services.

On a seasonally adjusted basis – filtering out the effects of the typical summer spike in construction – construction firms statewide were down 500 jobs in June and financial firms were down by 1,000, with most of the declines concentrated in loan services.

<snip>

But those gains were tempered by the weakness in construction and lending, which reflects a slowdown in the housing market.

In the meantime, San Diego County continues to add construction jobs, according to data that are not adjusted for seasonal variations.

Countywide, construction companies added 1,400 jobs in June, mostly in specialty trade professions, such as electricians and carpenters.

Mason added that one reason for the continuing health of the local construction industry is a rise in office construction.

“Office construction may be keeping us alive in San Diego,” she said. “Unfortunately, the methodologies we use can't tell us exactly how much employment comes from office construction versus residential.”

Other local employment growth included 2,600 jobs in leisure and hospitality services, which tend to swell during the summer tourist season; 1,100 jobs in trade and transportation, led by retail jobs in clothing stores; and manufacturing, which added 300 jobs, mostly making computers and electronics.

In San Diego, unemployment climbed to 5.2 percent last month from 4.7 percent in May, due to seasonal fluctuations.