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Housing Bubble Bursting?

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The bank owned sales are now competing with other well priced housing offerings. ( $ 250k to $ 500k).

Discounts seem to be about 20% off "appraised" prices for bank owned closing prices. At what point do we declare declining prices or do we leave them alone since "values" may be artificially softened until the bank inventory clears?

Recently had another friend of mine, long time appraiser, documents his stuff very well, receive a state complaint since his appraisal was $ 380k 3 yrs. ago and house now sold for $ 320k under bank owned scenario. What gives with these bank reviewers? Just because an opinion is different today is no reason to slander another appraiser. It the market stupid, not the appraiser.

john
 
john snyder said:
The bank owned sales are now competing with other well priced housing offerings. ( $ 250k to $ 500k).

Discounts seem to be about 20% off "appraised" prices for bank owned closing prices. At what point do we declare declining prices or do we leave them alone since "values" may be artificially softened until the bank inventory clears?

Recently had another friend of mine, long time appraiser, documents his stuff very well, receive a state complaint since his appraisal was $ 380k 3 yrs. ago and house now sold for $ 320k under bank owned scenario. What gives with these bank reviewers? Just because an opinion is different today is no reason to slander another appraiser. It the market stupid, not the appraiser.

john

I think a boot to the butt belongs to parties that overreach on either side.
The system could use a bit of balance. Any complaint that reasons simply that we sold the property for less than appraised value as primary evidence that a prior appraisal was inaccurate deserves to be dismissed and the complaining party immediately beamed back in time to take the life course over again:)
 
john snyder said:
The bank owned sales are now competing with other well priced housing offerings. ( $ 250k to $ 500k).

Discounts seem to be about 20% off "appraised" prices for bank owned closing prices. At what point do we declare declining prices or do we leave them alone since "values" may be artificially softened until the bank inventory clears?

Recently had another friend of mine, long time appraiser, documents his stuff very well, receive a state complaint since his appraisal was $ 380k 3 yrs. ago and house now sold for $ 320k under bank owned scenario. What gives with these bank reviewers? Just because an opinion is different today is no reason to slander another appraiser. It the market stupid, not the appraiser.

john


Liquidation value may become greater than market value.

When house sells for "X" through a bank ...... market value will equal "X-"

Theory being, banks will attempt to "prop" up sales collectively ....

Privately held properties will sell for less as the trendline continue to accerate downward.
 
I always include a blurb about the exposure time and value estimate being based on "adequate exposure by competent brokerage". Everyone knows that when a listing includes verbiage similar to "bank owned". "foreclosure sale", "auction", or "short sale subject to approval by bank" that it's an invitation for lowball offers and the seller is under undue pressure to sell within a limited time frame. Such conditions do not fit the definition of Market Value until the market is so bad that they are the typical sellers.
 
(Orlando) Region's home builders hear sobering news

Region's home builders hear sobering news (Orlando)

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news...,1711005.story?coll=orl-news-growth-headlines

Jerry W. Jackson | Sentinel Staff Writer
Posted August 3, 2006
Top housing-industry economists warned home builders meeting in Orlando on Wednesday that the industry will remain weak the rest of this year and next before possibly rebounding in 2008.

Higher interest rates and declining affordability are taking a toll, said David Seiders, chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders, and David Berson, chief economist for the Federal National Mortgage Association, known as Fannie Mae.

"I'm trimming everything in our forecast," Seiders told more than 100 people attending an industry forum in the Rosen Centre Hotel preceding today's opening of the Southeast Building Conference in the Orange County Convention Center.

"The economy has slowed and will slow further. I've got it that way through next year," he said.

Seiders said cancellations of new-home sales contracts are up sharply, builder confidence has plummeted, investor-owned homes are boosting inventory to record levels and home prices are starting to slip.

"Something is seriously going on here," said Seiders, who repeated a previous warning that "it's more than an orderly downturn."

Berson took a slightly more optimistic tone during the forum but did caution that, if oil prices continue to rise and another shock hits the U.S. economy, such as bird flu or a terrorist attack, "it could tip us into recession in 2007."

Both Berson and Seiders noted that Florida has advantages over most other states, with stronger job creation and healthier in-migration of residents. Those strengths seem to be remaining in place for both the home-construction and resale markets, though the state's rapid price run-up of recent years has set the stage for a steeper decline -- and the crisis in property-insurance availability and affordability is a negative force adding to the headwinds.

Florida's recent home-price appreciation rate -- averaging about 15 percent a year for each of the past five years -- is unsustainable, Berson said, and the question now is just how much the market will slow before stabilizing.

Seiders said he continues to be concerned that the Federal Reserve's interest-rate hikes are having an unintended consequence in that they drive up the so-called core inflation rate in a respect related to the ongoing downswing in housing.

While rising interest rates increase borrowing costs and slow the economy -- as they're supposed to do -- they also shift more consumers into the rental market, boosting apartment rates, and that gets factored into the federal government's Consumer Price Index, signaling more inflation, Seiders said.

"It turns out that Fed tightening is inflationary. How crazy is that," he said.

Seiders said that while he does have confidence in new Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, Fed officials seem relatively unconcerned that interest-rate increases, aimed at combating inflation, could actually contribute to inflationary pressure. Some members of Congress have taken note, he said, but it's unclear what might be done.

The Southeast Building Conference, which officially kicks off today with educational sessions and trade-show exhibits, continues through Saturday in the convention center's West Building. The event is open only to industry professionals.

Jerry W. Jackson can be reached at jwjackson@orlandosentinel.com or 407-420-5721.
 
Pamela Crowley (Florida) said:
Anybody else notice the increase in Stock Market trading TV ads?

No...

By I have noticed more Florida brokerages advertising in our local Homes of the Hamptons magazine. They never used to advertise here.

This month's advertisers include:

  • VIP Realty Group - Naples
  • Prudential (Florida WCI Realty) - Naples
  • Premier Estate Properties - various Florida locations
 
While rising interest rates increase borrowing costs and slow the economy -- as they're supposed to do -- they also shift more consumers into the rental market, boosting apartment rates, and that gets factored into the federal government's Consumer Price Index, signaling more inflation, Seiders said.
Now that is silly thinking and reasoning. Why? The reverse must be true also, that is, lowering interest rates is deflationary because more people can afford homes and they move out of apartments causing rents to stagnate or go down, which gets factored into the CPI, lowering the rate of inflation.

They had a free ride all the time the FED was cutting interest rates down to 1%. Now they cry because the rates are rising.

No doubt the rise in interest rates have caused fewer mortgages, sales, refinances, etc.
 
but did caution that, if oil prices continue to rise and another shock hits the U.S. economy, such as bird flu or a terrorist attack, "it could tip us into recession in 2007."

I think it is a given that oil prices will remain high and dampen the Xmas buying season severely....hurricane, bird flue, terrorism? yeah. anything right now is seen as bad news.
 
Builder Not Afraid of Big Bad Bubble

http://rismedia.com/index.php/article/articleview/15487/1/1/

Builder Not Afraid of Big Bad Bubble

Builder is developing a high-end custom home community in Nevada
RISMEDIA, August 4, 2006—(MCT)—The timing doesn't seem right for Ian Peltier to be developing a high-end custom home community on the lower slopes of Black Mountain in Henderson, Nevada.

Residential construction is slowing around the nation. In April, the seasonally adjusted rate of single-family construction spending was the lowest since December, Associated General Contractors of America chief economist Ken Simonson said.

Even Las Vegas, one of the hottest real estate markets in the country for the past five years, has seen an 8 percent decline in new home building permits through the first six months of the year, local firm Home Builders Research reported.

A reduced pace of home construction is expected in four of five U.S. regions covered in McGraw Hill's Construction Outlook 2006. The West is forecast to drop 9 percent from a very healthy 2005 as overpriced housing markets in that region are affected by reduced demand arising from higher mortgage rates, according to McGraw Hill.

Peltier, 36, president of Escana Properties, is not deterred by the reports. He came from a sagging economy in Michigan to Las Vegas, the second fastest-growing big city in America from 2000 to 2005.

"We were very fortunate to find a piece of land like we did," he said of the 5-acre parcel purchased for $2.5 million a year ago. "We certainly couldn't duplicate it today."
Peltier plans to develop the La Luz gated community with 17 estate homes priced from $1.5 million to $2 million. Construction is expected to begin in September and the first homes completed in July 2007.

Final maps have been secured for La Luz, grading is completed and installation of retaining walls and other on-site improvements are under way near Horizon Ridge and Viento Puntero.

Homes are selling for about $280 a square foot, which Peltier said is "an amazing price" considering the custom offerings such as Wolf appliances and rooftop fire pits that are standard at La Luz. Each home comes with a three-car garage and basement, something not often found in Las Vegas.

"We did extensive soil testing," Peltier said. "It's one of the risks we took. We're doing a small, boutique community. It's not always as cheap as other home builders want to do."
The homes are being designed by Michael Knorr and Associates, known for creating luxury homes for Las Vegas celebrities Siegfried and Roy and top casino executives.

Peltier said the architecture is unique to this area, appealing to both emotion and intellect. It's contemporary and very linear, in the style of Palm Springs, Calif., he said.

"I think we'll see the style of single-family homes change," he said. "You'll see more diversity."

Dennis Smith, president of Home Builders Research, said it's not a good time to be opening a new home subdivision in Las Vegas, which is on the deflation side of the housing bubble right now.

"If you had your choice between doing it now and a year ago, I'd do it a year ago," he said.

For some custom home builders, especially smaller builders, the time line for development may have played out, Smith said.

"The clock's ticking on financing, investors want a return. So it's basically at the point of either pull the permits and start construction or he sits tight," Smith said. "Some larger builders are basically sitting tight and selling what they've got. They've been told not to go out and buy new land right now."

Pulte Homes, the second-largest home builder in Las Vegas, is showing discipline by aggressively changing its strategy on land acquisition and speculative building, Susquehanna Financial Group home building analyst Stephen East said.

"On the land side, there is virtually a moratorium on new land purchases," he said.

Pulte Chief Executive Officer Richard Dugas commented that the company has land positions it "can capitalize on for years."

Copyright © 2006, Las Vegas Review-Journal
Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Business News.

RISMedia welcomes your questions and comments. Send your e-mail to: realestatemagazinefeedback@rismedia.com.
 
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