Randolph Kinney
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Favorite Months To Layoff Someone
Layoffs loom .... How safe are you?
By Jeanne Sahadi, CNNMoney.com senior writer
August 31 2006: 3:52 PM EDT
The situation is better than it's been for awhile, but cost cutting still tops the corporate agenda.
Typically, the heaviest months for layoff announcements have been October, December and January, according to John Challenger, CEO of outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
But, because of a slowing in the economy and increased energy and payroll costs, Challenger said he expects to see somewhat of a jump in the fourth quarter. Over the past 10 years, 9.7 million jobs were cut, 38 percent of which were announced in the last four months of the year.
One indicator to watch for will be weekly reports of initial jobless claims. They've been trending between 300,000 to 325,000, he said. So if they start to come in consistently above that range, that may indicate layoffs are increasing in the fourth quarter.
And the unemployment rate - currently 4.8 percent - is likely to cross 5 percent by year-end, he predicts, although he doesn't expect it to top 5.5 percent.
Put into perspective, he said, the possibility that you or someone you know may be subject to a layoff won't be as low as it was in 2004 and 2005 pre-Katrina, but it won't be nearly as high as it was in 2001 or in the early 1990s, when weekly jobless claims were hitting half a million.
Layoffs loom .... How safe are you?
By Jeanne Sahadi, CNNMoney.com senior writer
August 31 2006: 3:52 PM EDT
The situation is better than it's been for awhile, but cost cutting still tops the corporate agenda.
Typically, the heaviest months for layoff announcements have been October, December and January, according to John Challenger, CEO of outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
But, because of a slowing in the economy and increased energy and payroll costs, Challenger said he expects to see somewhat of a jump in the fourth quarter. Over the past 10 years, 9.7 million jobs were cut, 38 percent of which were announced in the last four months of the year.
One indicator to watch for will be weekly reports of initial jobless claims. They've been trending between 300,000 to 325,000, he said. So if they start to come in consistently above that range, that may indicate layoffs are increasing in the fourth quarter.
And the unemployment rate - currently 4.8 percent - is likely to cross 5 percent by year-end, he predicts, although he doesn't expect it to top 5.5 percent.
Put into perspective, he said, the possibility that you or someone you know may be subject to a layoff won't be as low as it was in 2004 and 2005 pre-Katrina, but it won't be nearly as high as it was in 2001 or in the early 1990s, when weekly jobless claims were hitting half a million.