• Welcome to AppraisersForum.com, the premier online  community for the discussion of real estate appraisal. Register a free account to be able to post and unlock additional forums and features.

Housing Bubble Bursting?

Status
Not open for further replies.
Lenders Seek Ways To Grow Customer Base

Post-Housing Boom, Lenders Seek Ways To Grow Customer Base


BY DAVID DEVOSS
FOR INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY
Posted 8/24/2006

realestate082506.gif


Sixty-nine percent of American adults have mortgages, up from 64% in 1990.

Now that the bloom's fading from the housing boom, lenders are probing how to boost home ownership further, thus their business.

Some risk is inherent in their strategy, which entails offering more exotic and longer loans, and appealing to new buyers.

Minorities will account for nearly 65% of these first-time home buyers. Indebted college graduates, single parents and young marrieds just starting to build equity will comprise much of the balance. Freddie Mac says $6 trillion will be needed to finance these loans.

"There's money to be made by targeting this segment of the market because it is underserved and growing," said Lorrie Blevins, Freddie Mac's western region manager for housing and community investments.

That's one tonic to mortgage lenders, who have been coping with the slowest pace of mortgage application activity since 2002 and with more competitors in their industry grappling for borrower business.

Finding New Owners

Prospects for raising the incidence of U.S. home ownership look good partly because of potential in African-American and Hispanic markets and because of an influx of immigrants intent on buying, says Countrywide Financial Chief Executive Angelo Mozilo.

Agencies such as Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae (FNM) and the Federal Housing Administration want to create tax-paying property owners and are making money available. And moves are afoot to broaden loan-making potential. A measure to raise FHA loan ceilings, extend loan lengths and drop down payment requirements from 3% to zero passed the House, and went to the Senate in June.

However, extending credit more liberally raises the specter of delinquency and default, already an industry worry. More buyers just barely making it could end up in a bind as adjustable rate mortgages reset at higher rates.

Regulators Take A Look

Banking regulators have cast a wary eye, and they're expected to soon put out guidance on nontraditional mortgage issuance. The proposed guidance makes it clear nontraditional mortgage products are perfectly appropriate if underwritten properly with meaningful disclosures, according to Comptroller of the Currency John Dugan.

Credit's more plentiful than it once was. Last year nonprime loan originations — those based on middling credit scores — comprised 21% of the market vs. about 5% a decade ago. Such loans had a foreclosure rate of 3.3% in the fourth quarter of 2005, while loans to borrowers with better credit, the prime market, had a foreclosure rate of 0.4%. However, lower scorers pay more for loans because they're higher risk. Also, the lending industry considers itself better equipped to manage risk, thanks partly to new high-tech underwriting tools.

Today's wide range of mortgage choices is broadening the ranks of homeowners by taming monthly payments and requiring little or no down payment. For instance, lenders market 40- and even 50-year mortgages. Forty-year loans have been around for decades, but lenders are offering them more broadly and home buyers are asking for them in significant numbers.

Also, ARMs appear in greater variety than they once did. For instance, there's the pay option loan, which lets buyers choose what to shell out each month: a partial interest payment, a full interest payment or payment of principal and interest.

It's Different Today

Times have changed drastically in the world of housing. Sixty years ago, following World War II, buying a new home was relatively easy. The Veterans Administration and the FHA guaranteed most mortgages for first-time home buyers. A young married couple with a 20% down payment could borrow the balance of the purchase price at the prime rate plus one or two points, a point equaling 1% of the loan amount. Banking was so simple, it jokingly was called the 3-6-3 business: Bankers paid 3% interest on deposits, loaned money at 6% and hit the links at 3 p.m. when their offices closed.

Programs financed by Washington and offered through local housing authorities let a person buy a house with little or no money down. But the borrower must decide if the loan being offered is appropriate to his circumstances.

If cash is tight, a pay option loan lets a borrower skip a portion of his monthly mortgage payment and add the unpaid balance onto the end of his loan.

Miss too many payments, and a negative amortization situation develops in which you may end up owing more than the home's purchase price.
An interest-only loan allows for low monthly payments initially because repayment of principal is deferred for an agreed-upon number of years. The downside is that you build no equity for the first couple of years despite making monthly payments.
 
Steve Owen said:
Too soon to say for sure, but it seems to make sense to me...

http://www.kansascity.com/mld/kansascity/business/15550889.htm
Steve,
Soft Landing? Not a chance. How about A Crash Landing?

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/
Monday, September 18, 2006
No Hard Landing
I have it on great authority that there will not be a hard landing in real estate.
Who told me that? It was none other than Mike Morgan at MorganFlorida. Please listen in to what Morgan has to say.

Mike Morgan:

Will there be a hard landing? No!
Will there be a crash landing? Absolutely!

Despite September’s short covering of home builders and value buyers trying to cash in on low P/Es and stocks selling at or below book value, a hard landing is now out of the question. We’re in for a market crash. Read between the lines, or read actual comments for content.

Here’s what Robert Toll, CEO of Toll Brothers said at the Credit Suisse conference. “The market got ahead of itself in recent years, citing "greed on the part of buyers and sellers, and that the current level of speculative inventory is probably the largest ever.”

And how about Don Tomnitz, CEO of D.R. Horton. “We have never seen housing prices and demand slow as quickly as they have during this down cycle."

Take it a step further and look at the statistics. Never before have we seen inventories at these levels. Recently NAR finally admitted home price are coming down. Never before have we seen home prices fall. And RealtyTrac just announced that foreclosures are up 53% from a year ago.

For those “value investors” buying the home builders because the P/Es are so low, I ask, “What happens when there are no earnings?” And for those “value investors” buying for the book value, I ask, “What happens when the builders take massive write downs to land, and burn up cash with carrying costs of unsold inventory?”

But that’s not even the heart of the current problems. For the last two weeks I’ve been receiving daily calls from desperate mortgage brokers, real estate attorneys, insurance brokers, title companies and subcontractors looking for deals and work. This week I spoke with a real estate attorney closing his office and returning to the corporate world. And several of the smaller builders have called me offering triple commissions to entice sales of their inventory. It doesn’t end there.

Who will the housing crash effect? Everyone. Real estate agents will be first. As a group, they’ve made a ton of money during the housing boom, and they’ve spent millions on new cars, vacations, restaurants, clothes, and everything else that comes with excessive discretionary income. That’s over now. Agents are not buying the luxury items that helped feed the economic boom, and they are cutting back on business spending like advertising and marketing. That hits the vendors and newspapers revenues.

Take it a step further. With sales off 50% and more, all of the industries that have benefited from the boom, will suffer loss of revenue and jobs at accelerated rates and massive proportions. Home builders and condo developers have been announcing cancellations of projects and cut backs in spec building. The flippers fed the housing boom, and they’re washed up right now. In fact, they are making the crash much worse than it should have been.

Many flippers bought multiple properties. When in the history of the world have we ever seen the housing industry conduct business like a stock exchange. We had bidding wars. We had lotteries on new developments, just like we had allocations for new tech offerings during the late 90’s. And just like the tech boom, the buyers were not making decisions based on fundamentals. Take a look at the recent Vonage offering, where buyers don’t want to pay for their stock, because the price dropped after the public offering. The same thing is happening in the housing market, with thousands of buyers walking away from deposits, refusing to close on homes. That adds to the woes of the builders.

And just like we saw a tech crash with everyone rushing to sell, we’re now just starting to see flippers dump properties for 200-400% losses on their deposits. Add to the woes, the fact that interest rates are up and most flippers bought using creative financing and low rate ARMs.

But this is all old news for us. The other shoe is dropping now. Loss of hundreds of thousands of jobs created from housing will act like a virus and spread throughout our economy. As real estate agents, attorneys and mortgage brokers reign in their spending, it will effect restaurants, car dealers, advertising companies, jewelers, remodeling contractors, furniture manufacturers, bank profits, electronic retailers, clothing and the list goes on and on and on.

As the primary players are effected, and they cut back on spending, so will the secondary players in this market. These companies will be forced to lay off employees, and the cycle will grow like a virus. Is that it? Not a chance.

The housing market benefits most when rates are low and jobs are being created. With rates rising and job loss skyrocketing, the affordability index for homes drops in step. The buyers that are still in the market can not afford the same home they could a year ago. On average, with the rise in interest rates, the buyer that could afford a $500,000 home a year ago, can now only afford a $425,000 home. But with the loss of jobs growing, there are fewer buyers that can afford the $425,000 home and many existing homeowners that can no longer afford to make their monthly mortgage payments.

So now we have a third group of sellers scrambling for the ever dwindling buyers’
market. You’ve got the flippers desperate to sell. You’ve got the builders stuck with inventory of unsold homes, and now you have the group of sellers that are being foreclosed or simply decide to sell because they can no longer swing the monthly mortgage payments after losing their jobs.

Nonsense? Hardly. I spoke with a real estate agent the other day that has not sold a home in three months. His wife works for a title company and was just laid off. He’s now sending out applications for a job in his former field of banking. Lots of luck. He’s been out of the field for five years, and he’s 54 years old. They have two kids in college and a hefty mortgage. Oh, by the way, did I mention they own three flip properties that they can’t sell.

How about the attorney that is closing his office and returning to the corporate world. He’s laying off six people in his office. And how about the builder that called me this week. He employs about a dozen people, as well as a small army of subcontractors. He’s closing up, and he has unsold inventory that he cannot sell at a profit. That means the dozen employees are out of work, and his army of subcontractors are out of work for the first time in four years.

And how about my office. I’ve decided to lay off one of my team members. She’s a single Mom, but as much as it hurts to break the news to her, I have no choice. If things don’t pick up within the next 30 days, I will be forced to lay off a second team member. When you do the math, the choice is survival. It doesn’t end there. Realistically, if things do not pick up within 90 days, I will close my office and concentrate on my other businesses. This is reality, and you’re hearing it from the horse’s mouth.

Multiply these four scenarios by thousands and you have a crash. A hard landing is out of the question at this point. The economists should be talking about how devastating the crash will be.


The USA Today is reporting More fall behind on mortgages.

Calls to the Homeownership Preservation Foundation, which provides free credit counseling, hit a record 2,464 in August, a 25% jump over July. More than half of the distressed callers had ARM loans.

"It's alarming. It really is," says Pam Canada, executive director of the NeighborWorks Homeownership Center in Sacramento. Her non-profit counseling center used to receive two or three calls a week from homeowners in financial quicksand; now, it's 20 a week.

More homeowners with shaky credit are falling behind on their mortgage payments, especially in such states as Ohio, Alabama, Tennessee, Michigan and West Virginia, where job losses have struck the local economies, the Mortgage Bankers Association said Wednesday.

The problem is the worst for those with subprime credit who pay higher-than-usual interest rates and who have adjustable loans that have been resetting to higher rates. About 12.2% of such borrowers were late paying their loans in April through June, the highest level since the end of 2003.

In Ohio, which has lost thousands of manufacturing jobs, the foreclosure process was already underway for 11% of homeowners with subprime ARMs — the nation's highest rate. In California, which had the nation's highest number of risky ARM loans, delinquency rates are still near historic lows. "There's no place to go but up," says Doug Duncan, the MBA's chief economist.

Foreclosures and delinquencies have "no place to go but up". That is the key message that Morgan, Duncan, and I have been saying for quite some time. No, there will not be a hard landing. We will crash.
 
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=amW7x3OwQgGE&refer=home

U.S. Economy: Housing Starts, Producer Prices Fall (Update4)

By Bob Willis and Courtney Schlisserman

Sept. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Housing construction in the U.S. fell to a three-year low and a measure of wholesale prices dropped, increasing speculation the Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates through year-end and possibly beyond.

Housing starts plunged 6 percent last month to an annual rate of 1.665 million, the Commerce Department said today in Washington, a steeper slide than economists forecast. Prices paid to U.S. producers excluding food and energy declined 0.4 percent from July, the Labor Department said, marking the first back-to-back monthly drop since the end of 2002.

The slump in housing, which fueled growth for half a decade, is now so deep that it raises concerns the rest of the economy will be dragged down with it. Today's price figures suggest the Fed isn't under any pressure to resume raising interest rates following 17 consecutive increases that ended in June. Treasury notes jumped and stocks fell.

``Right now, it's just housing that's slowing, but this can spread to the rest of the economy very quickly,'' said Chris Low, chief economist at FTN Financial in New York. ``It should be absolutely clear to the Fed that they've done enough.''

Fed policy makers meet tomorrow and will keep their benchmark lending rate at 5.25 percent for a second month, according to all 109 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Building permits dropped to an annual rate of 1.722 million from 1.763 million the prior month. Not since May to November 1986 have permits declined seven straight months.

Economists expected starts to fall to an annual rate of 1.746 million from an originally reported 1.795 million pace in July, based on the median of forecasts in a Bloomberg survey.

Recession Risk

``In the past couple of months we've watched the growth side, housing in particular, deteriorate faster than anybody expected,'' said Gregory Miller, chief economist at SunTrust Banks Inc. in Atlanta. ``I'm not ready to raise the flag to start calling a recession, but there's clearly a risk.''

Miller predicts the Fed will lower borrowing costs next year.

Diminishing increases in home prices helped bring the smallest gain in household net worth in four years last quarter, the Fed reported today. Total net worth rose $54.1 billion to a record $53.33 trillion in the second quarter, the central bank said in its Flow of Funds report.

Borrowing rose at an annual rate of 6.4 percent from April through June, the smallest increase since the first quarter of 2002, the Fed report showed.

Producer Prices

In a sign of easing inflation, overall prices paid to producers rose 0.1 percent for a second month in August, the Labor Department said. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News expected a 0.3 percent rise.

New-home sales dropped in July and inventories of unsold new homes rose to a record, the Commerce Department said on Aug. 24, leaving builders with little choice but to cut construction and offer incentives to spur demand.

Bonds notes rallied with the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note dropping 8 basis points to 4.73 percent at 4:11 p.m. in New York. The Standard & Poor's Supercomposite Homebuilding Index retreated 1.7 percent to 622.71, while the S&P 500 dropped 2.9 points, or 0.2 percent.

`Unsustainable' Expansion

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson told his counterparts at a Group of Seven meeting in Singapore on Sept. 16 that they needn't worry about a housing-led collapse of the world's largest economy. The real-estate market is cooling from an ``unsustainable'' expansion, he said.

Construction of single-family homes declined 5.9 percent in August to a 1.36 million rate, the slowest since February 2003, the Commerce Department said today. New construction of multifamily homes, such as townhouses and apartment buildings, fell 6.7 percent to an annual rate of 305,000.

Starts fell in all regions but the Northeast. They decreased 12 percent in the Midwest to 267,000, the lowest since December 2000; 6.1 percent in the South to an 833,000 pace; and 5.5 percent in the West to 410,000. Starts rose 5.4 percent in the Northeast to a 155,000 pace.

Industry Incentives

Wells Fargo & Co. Chief Executive Officer Richard Kovacevich said yesterday that the housing market is probably weaker than economic data suggest because homebuilders are using ``very significant incentives'' to attract buyers.

``We will see, over the next five to six months, inventories increase quite substantially'' as that strategy becomes less successful in tempering the decline in demand for new homes, Kovacevich, whose bank is the second-biggest U.S. mortgage lender, said at a conference in San Francisco.

Builder confidence is suffering. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo said yesterday that its index of builder optimism fell this month to the lowest level in 15 years. The Standard and Poor's 500 Homebuilding Index, made up of five of the largest U.S. builders, has fallen by more than a quarter this year, the second-worst performance among S&P 500 industry groups.

Lennar Corp., the second-largest U.S. homebuilder by market value, on Sept. 8 said profit fell in the fiscal third quarter for the first time in six years.

`Continued to Deteriorate'

``The U.S. housing market has continued to deteriorate,'' Stuart Miller, Lennar's president and chief executive officer, said in a statement. ``Given difficult market conditions, we have limited our land purchases while we have remained focused on even flow production and minimizing completed inventory.''

Home sales will probably drop 8 percent this year and another 2 percent next, according to a National Association of Realtors forecast issued Sept. 7.

Median existing home prices will rise 2.8 percent this year to $225,900 after rising 10.5 percent in 2005, the Realtors forecast. Home prices in some months this year may dip below year-ago levels, the Realtors forecast.

The group's measure of housing affordability fell in July to its lowest level since 1989 as mortgage rates increased and home prices edged up.

Home construction in the second quarter subtracted more from economic growth than at any time since the first three months of 1991, according to the Commerce Department. The slowdown in the real estate market is also producing smaller gains in home prices that may remove a source of strength for consumer spending as fewer home owners refinance.

To contact the reporter on this story: Bob Willis in Washington bwillis@bloomberg.net
 
U.S. Stocks Fall on Yahoo Forecast, Signs of Housing Slowdown

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=avX9.EjFg7JI&refer=home

U.S. Stocks Fall on Yahoo Forecast, Signs of Housing Slowdown

By Allen Wan

Sept. 19 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks retreated, snapping the Nasdaq Composite Index's longest winning streak in eight months, as slowing advertising growth at Yahoo! Inc. and a drop in home construction suggested the economy is losing momentum.

Yahoo, the most-visited U.S. Web site, tumbled 11 percent and spurred losses in technology shares. Toll Brothers Inc. led declines among homebuilders, the market's worst performers this year aside from Internet companies.

Stocks reached the day's lows after Thailand's military seized control of the country and the prime minister declared a state of emergency. While prices rebounded in afternoon trading, an inflation report that suggested the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged tomorrow failed to reassure investors.

``The market's vulnerable,'' said David Briggs, senior vice president of equity trading at Federated Investment Management in Pittsburgh, which has $30 billion in stocks. ``People begin to wonder about the psyche of the average consumer and how it might slow up the economy.''

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 2.87, or 0.2 percent, to 1318.31. Energy shares had the biggest drop among the benchmark's 10 industry groups as oil tumbled to a six-month low. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 14.09, or 0.1 percent, to 11,540.91.

Nasdaq's Drop

The Nasdaq fell for the first time in eight days, declining 13.38, or 0.6 percent, to 2222.37. The gauge last rose for seven consecutive sessions in the period ended Jan. 11.

Stocks opened lower after the government said a glut of unsold homes spurred a 6 percent plunge in housing starts. Losses accelerated after Yahoo said its profit and sales will be at the low end of its forecasts this quarter and Thai military chiefs took the capital.

Shares of mutual funds that invest in Thailand dropped in U.S. trading. Thai Fund Inc. fell 3.8 percent to $8.65 after earlier tumbling as much as 7.1 percent. Thai Capital Fund Inc. lost 4.4 percent to $9.70.

The housing report, along with Yahoo's forecast, raised concern that corporate profits may slow and supplanted confidence that the Fed will keep interest rates at 5.25 percent tomorrow for the second straight meeting after raising them for two consecutive years.

Yahoo Slumps

Yahoo plunged $3.25 to $25.75 for the biggest decline in the S&P 500.

Profit and sales this quarter will be at the low end of the company's forecast range on slower advertising demand from automakers and financial services companies, Chief Financial Officer Susan Decker said. It was Yahoo's biggest retreat since July 19.

Other Internet shares declined. Google Inc., the most-used Internet search engine, slid $10.88 to $403.81. Monster Worldwide Inc., owner of online job-listing service Monster.com, plunged $2.83 to $37.10. IAC/InterActiveCorp, an Internet and media company run by Barry Diller, was down 45 cents at $27.97.

Fourteen out of the 16 members of the S&P Supercomposite Homebuilding Index dropped after the housing starts report.

Toll Brothers, the biggest luxury homebuilder, slumped 74 cents to $27.42. Pulte Homes Inc., the largest homebuilder by market value, slid 46 cents to $31.61.
 
Housing starts fall more than expected

Housing starts fall more than expected
New construction of homes falls to 1.665 million rate, a 3-year low

By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch
Last Update: 11:27 AM ET Sep 19, 2006


WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- New construction on U.S. homes was weaker than expected in August, calling into question the orderly economic slowdown envisioned by the Federal Reserve.

U.S. housing starts fell 6% in August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.665 million, the lowest since April 2003, the Commerce Department estimated Tuesday.

Housing starts have fallen in six of the past seven months.

Building permits, meanwhile, fell 2.3% to a seasonally adjusted rate of 1.722 million, the lowest since August 2002. Permits have fallen seven months in a row, as builders adjust to the rapidly weakening market. Permits are considered a leading indicator for the housing sector and the economy.

"We reckon third-quarter starts will fall 35% annualized, following a 39.5% drop in the second quarter," said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist for High Frequency Economics. "If that's not meltdown, it's pretty close."

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B1C82E6BD%2DB1BB%2D47C2%2D85ED%2D8182B80FE559%7D&siteid=
 
Treasury Mulling GSE 'options' In Place Of Bill

Treasury Mulling GSE 'options' In Place Of Bill

09-19-06 12:11 PM EST

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones) -- The Bush administration is considering unnamed " options" to reform big housing finance companies Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae if lawmakers do not pass a bill before leaving for the November elections.

Action on creating a new, more powerful regulator for the companies is stalled in the Senate as lawmakers quibble over limiting the amounts of mortgage investments each firm may have.

The Treasury has consistently argued the $1.4 trillion in retained mortgage portfolios held by both companies is too big an amount and places the financial system at risk in the event of trouble at either Fannie or Freddie.

http://news.morningstar.com/news/DJ/M09/D19/200609191211DOWJONESDJONLINE000567.html?t1=1158707967
 
"We have argued strongly that these concerns need to be addressed and that the best way to do so is through a legislative solution," Henry told the National Association of Federal Credit Unions in prepared remarks.
What's so surprising about that? Big government thinks that the way out of the mess they've made is through more regulation. Here's a novel idea... cut Fred and Fan loose from the public trough... let them sink or swim. Frankly, I (as are many other taxpayers) am sick and tired of all the corporate welfare. It's time to get Ronald McDonald (and many others) off the public dole.
 
Steve Owen said:
What's so surprising about that? Big government thinks that the way out of the mess they've made is through more regulation. Here's a novel idea... cut Fred and Fan loose from the public trough... let them sink or swim. Frankly, I (as are many other taxpayers) am sick and tired of all the corporate welfare. It's time to get Ronald McDonald (and many others) off the public dole.
Steve, don't hold back, tell us what you really think!

Fannie has been run like a corrupt fiefdom with the protection of the mafia, I mean the government. It has the aura that its debt is protected by government guarantees like Ginnie Mae however, it has no government backing. The magnitude of size of debt obligations is overwhelming and now the mafia, I mean government, wants to reign it in before something happens like a severe drop in the housing market or whatever else that causes people not to pay their mortgages. In the end, the government will be on the hook to bail out the investors of Fannie debt even if Fannie were cut loose of government regulation. Too big to fail doctrine.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Find a Real Estate Appraiser - Enter Zip Code

Copyright © 2000-, AppraisersForum.com, All Rights Reserved
AppraisersForum.com is proudly hosted by the folks at
AppraiserSites.com
Back
Top