Brad Ellis
Senior Member
- Joined
- Feb 7, 2006
- Professional Status
- Certified Residential Appraiser
- State
- California
Moh,
Your quote,
"Thank you Brad,
Finally, you acknowledged that you are not buying the stock of your own company. I don't blame you, I wouldn't buy it either. With that acknowledgment, can we assume that you believe in your heart that there is going to be a hard landing and a market crash but you just don’t want to say it? "
Utter rubbish. The 52 week high/low ranged from about $34 to about $50. The current close was $40. EPS is $5.00- all per public data. The current trend for almost all bank stocks is downward.
I do not buy stocks in a sector that is trending down; I buy stocks in a sector when it is trending up.
Wall St. traders and investors have a saying, "The trend is your friend." I, and others add- "...until the end".
So, not buying right now has nothing whatever to do with the performance of my firm at all; it has everything to do with the sector trend.
When the trend reverses- and it will- I'll be jumping in again. Note that I have not sold a single share since 2002- I am holding it because I am not only in profit but expect the share price to increase nicely after all the dust settles from H+R Block, etc.
Anyone who tries to time a market has rocks in their head. That is why I wait to a trend to be established.
We continue to increase market share over the longer term. Our profits are just fine, thank you.
And, once the trend reverses, do you really think I will not be buying a stock with enormous upside potential that is selling for P/E of 8 ???????
In 2002 I bought it at about $18 and sold some about 6 months later at $22. That was about a 40% annualized return. The current price represents an increase of 122% over 4 years +/-. By comparison, my Citigroup stock went up only about 11% in the same period. Hmmm.
As to your assertions/questions about whether I believe there is a crash coming, the answer is NO.
I will , however, start pricing out headstones. For yours, it will say, "here lies Moh, who died from a broken heart because the real estate market did not implode."
Now a question for you: If this market does not crash, are you going to be man enough to admit you were wrong?
I guess we will see that soon enough, too.
Brad
Your quote,
"Thank you Brad,
Finally, you acknowledged that you are not buying the stock of your own company. I don't blame you, I wouldn't buy it either. With that acknowledgment, can we assume that you believe in your heart that there is going to be a hard landing and a market crash but you just don’t want to say it? "
Utter rubbish. The 52 week high/low ranged from about $34 to about $50. The current close was $40. EPS is $5.00- all per public data. The current trend for almost all bank stocks is downward.
I do not buy stocks in a sector that is trending down; I buy stocks in a sector when it is trending up.
Wall St. traders and investors have a saying, "The trend is your friend." I, and others add- "...until the end".
So, not buying right now has nothing whatever to do with the performance of my firm at all; it has everything to do with the sector trend.
When the trend reverses- and it will- I'll be jumping in again. Note that I have not sold a single share since 2002- I am holding it because I am not only in profit but expect the share price to increase nicely after all the dust settles from H+R Block, etc.
Anyone who tries to time a market has rocks in their head. That is why I wait to a trend to be established.
We continue to increase market share over the longer term. Our profits are just fine, thank you.
And, once the trend reverses, do you really think I will not be buying a stock with enormous upside potential that is selling for P/E of 8 ???????
In 2002 I bought it at about $18 and sold some about 6 months later at $22. That was about a 40% annualized return. The current price represents an increase of 122% over 4 years +/-. By comparison, my Citigroup stock went up only about 11% in the same period. Hmmm.
As to your assertions/questions about whether I believe there is a crash coming, the answer is NO.
I will , however, start pricing out headstones. For yours, it will say, "here lies Moh, who died from a broken heart because the real estate market did not implode."
Now a question for you: If this market does not crash, are you going to be man enough to admit you were wrong?
I guess we will see that soon enough, too.
Brad