Randolph Kinney
Elite Member
- Joined
- Apr 7, 2005
- Professional Status
- Retired Appraiser
- State
- North Carolina
I have done some research at the county recorder site:
http://arcc.co.san-diego.ca.us/arcc/services/grantorgrantee/search.aspx
I have collected data for Default notice and Notice of Trustee Sale going back to 1990. It is a real eye opener. The notice of trustee sales are climbing so rapidly this year and in particular the last 4 months. For the month of September 2006, the number is around 373 for notice of trustee sale. Going back in time and looking at the month of September for notice of trustee sale, it looks as follows:
Sept 1990 167
Sept 1991 289
Sept 1992 354
Sept 1993 490
Sept 1994 384
Sept 1995 397
Sept 1996 482
Sept 1997 383
Sept 1998 294
Sept 1999 186
Sept 2000 130
Sept 2001 122
Sept 2002 166
Sept 2003 104
Sept 2004 83
Sept 2005 126
Sept 2006 373
From OFHEO for San Diego MSA, price index history by quarter 1991 through 1996:
1991 1 0.52
1991 2 -0.44
1991 3 -1.66
1991 4 -0.09
1992 1 -0.53
1992 2 -0.65
1992 3 -0.79
1992 4 -2.22
1993 1 -3.09
1993 2 -3.16
1993 3 -3.72
1993 4 -3.11
1994 1 -2.76
1994 2 -3.83
1994 3 -3.98
1994 4 -4.73
1995 1 -4.17
1995 2 -1.53
1995 3 0.31
1995 4 1.29
1996 1 1.74
1996 2 -0.68
1996 3 -1.66
1996 4 -0.66
My conclusion is that there is going to be some price declines that compare to previous years of similar quantity of notice of trustee sale. And, it may be a lot worse this time because unlike the previous years, San Diego is not having base closing or reduction in defense spending but the notice of trustee sale is on par with that time era. These notices of trustee sales appear to be related to 100% financing and subprime loans.
http://arcc.co.san-diego.ca.us/arcc/services/grantorgrantee/search.aspx
I have collected data for Default notice and Notice of Trustee Sale going back to 1990. It is a real eye opener. The notice of trustee sales are climbing so rapidly this year and in particular the last 4 months. For the month of September 2006, the number is around 373 for notice of trustee sale. Going back in time and looking at the month of September for notice of trustee sale, it looks as follows:
Sept 1990 167
Sept 1991 289
Sept 1992 354
Sept 1993 490
Sept 1994 384
Sept 1995 397
Sept 1996 482
Sept 1997 383
Sept 1998 294
Sept 1999 186
Sept 2000 130
Sept 2001 122
Sept 2002 166
Sept 2003 104
Sept 2004 83
Sept 2005 126
Sept 2006 373
From OFHEO for San Diego MSA, price index history by quarter 1991 through 1996:
1991 1 0.52
1991 2 -0.44
1991 3 -1.66
1991 4 -0.09
1992 1 -0.53
1992 2 -0.65
1992 3 -0.79
1992 4 -2.22
1993 1 -3.09
1993 2 -3.16
1993 3 -3.72
1993 4 -3.11
1994 1 -2.76
1994 2 -3.83
1994 3 -3.98
1994 4 -4.73
1995 1 -4.17
1995 2 -1.53
1995 3 0.31
1995 4 1.29
1996 1 1.74
1996 2 -0.68
1996 3 -1.66
1996 4 -0.66
My conclusion is that there is going to be some price declines that compare to previous years of similar quantity of notice of trustee sale. And, it may be a lot worse this time because unlike the previous years, San Diego is not having base closing or reduction in defense spending but the notice of trustee sale is on par with that time era. These notices of trustee sales appear to be related to 100% financing and subprime loans.