Housing Bubble Bursting?

[Randolph Kinney]

Randolph,
No, that's you trying to confuse things.

If you belive interest rates don't move together, then you have blown the credbility you would have had left, if you didn't already blow it posting and defending that goofball graph. If you can't see the interest rates moving together on those other limited graphs, try looking at the correlation coeffecient. Looking at all those wiggling lines must have you intoxicated, if your head wasn't already swirling from bubble psychosis.

If I had listened you bubble bozos when you first started posting here and sold, I would have missed out on the value of my house more than doubling.

More of the same, worthless opinion, no data, sophistry analysis, etc. Time to move on.

 

[Steve Owen]

OK, class: Your homework assignment is to check points along the home cost chart. Since we don't have the source data for the "basic home", nor the inflation data used to index the basic home, I propose the following:

Do we have a volunteer to appraise a 120 year old standard home?

OK. First, the volunteer appraiser does a retrospective appraisal effective 1/1/1890.

Repeat for additional years. Let me know if the data gets better as you go along.

To what length does the author go in his book to outline the scope of his work? IMO, it would be a laborious, but necessary task to follow along with his assumptions about the underlying data for each particular time interval, the assumptions wrapped into any constant dollar conversion, etc.

The quality and quantity of data probably varied considerably along that time line, not always getting better as time went forward. WW 1, WW2, Lots of questions

Thanks Roger, I needed a chuckle today.

 

[Brad Ellis]

Steve and Roger,

Laugh a bit, but in Chicago, I could actually do it. The newspapers are available and over the years I did find selling prices published in them for periods before 1900. They were always interesting. But gonnat take some time, so... Roger:

We will put together the team and all we need is your credit card number, the expiration date, that funny 3 digit number on the back, the last 4 of your SS#, and your written assurance you have not maxed out the darn thing!!

Brad

 

[Bobby Bucks]

Hold off on the hemlock, the guru says it's over. By the time the NAR goons publish this, they'll be predicting another boom market before Thanksgiving. I apologize for bringing this bad news to my bubble buddies.
http://today.reuters.com/news/artic...-MARKETS-HOUSING-GREENSPAN.xml&src=rss&rpc=23

 

[Greg Bell]

Greenspan said the housing decline is over.Mortgage applications are up for refi's.All is well.Maybe he has never heard of the Dead cat bounce.

 

[JSmith43]

Greenspan, from the article:

Greenspan said the fall of communism, not sharp interest rate cuts by the Fed, was behind the housing boom in the early part of the decade. Cheap labor flooding into the West after the fall of the Berlin Wall had a disinflationary effect, causing bond yields to fall and house values to rise, he said.

I'd expect this type of analysis out of Chauncy (Chance) the Gardener (Peter Sellers, Being There 1979) both before and after his car accident.

Thank goodness that cheap labor flooded our market. No wonder East Germany went belly up, spending substantial resources on Spanish lessons for it's citizens, etc.

I'm betting that the quote is a bit out of context, recent stroke, something like that. Maybe I had the stroke?

 

[Greg Bell]

Heh heh..good one.maybe Greenspan has has reverted to the Forest Gump
approach , Housing is like a box of chocolates , you may bite into the cocunut
cream., yuk..

 

[Couch Potato]

No, an accurate assesment.

Greenspan, from the article:

Greenspan said the fall of communism, not sharp interest rate cuts by the Fed, was behind the housing boom in the early part of the decade. Cheap labor flooding into the West after the fall of the Berlin Wall had a disinflationary effect, causing bond yields to fall and house values to rise, he said.

I'd expect this type of analysis out of Chauncy (Chance) the Gardener (Peter Sellers, Being There 1979) both before and after his car accident.

Thank goodness that cheap labor flooded our market. No wonder East Germany went belly up, spending substantial resources on Spanish lessons for it's citizens, etc.

I'm betting that the quote is a bit out of context, recent stroke, something like that. Maybe I had the stroke?

I think the comment is dead on. The greatest threat to the economy since the fall of the Soviet Union has been deflation. It has taken all the inflationary pressure the Fed could muster, to this point, to keep that disaster from occurring. It will be even harder to handle such problems in the future now that the US is no longer the worlds dominant economy.

 

[JSmith43]

I'm all for increased productivity, lower prices. Those of you that wish to walk further than necessary to gather wood for a fire, go right ahead.

It really depends upon what brings about the increase in value of the dollar that really matters.

 

[Brad Ellis]

Bobby,

What fun!-

Roger,

I like to watch...

MOH------MOH !!!!!!!!!!!!

The maestro has spoken. Omigosh, could he be right?

Time will tell.

Brad