Housing Bubble Bursting?

[TD Morgan]

I have a feeling that is actually part of their master plan.

How much do you want to bet that our federal government has pledged federal lands as collateral for some of the money loaned to us?

How about letting China buy up all our bankrupt cities, states and territories?

 

[Randolph Kinney]

Isn't that the same thing, just stacked differently?

.

Yes, but know stackable shipping containers are much cheaper than a jail.

 

[Randolph Kinney]

I have a feeling that is actually part of their master plan.

How much do you want to bet that our federal government has pledged federal lands as collateral for some of the money loaned to us?

Maybe Donald Trump has bought some of the asset backed collateral from the government?

 

[Michael S]

I appraised a property build out of shipping containers recently. It was built out of eight new containers which cost about $5,000 each delivered. The total cost of construction was about 10 times that once you add in all of the insulation, HVAC, plumbing, electrical, etc. It really wasn't any cheaper than if they had just built it using tradition building materials. Used containers are cheaper but I believe they still run about $2,000-$3,000 delivered. My dad used to be a welder and he said the worst job he ever had was ripping out the flooring in a shipping container that had been used to ship fish. The insulation and floor boards were permeated with rancid fish oil and these had been sitting closed up out in the sun for a long time. I think he said he quit that job after two days.

 

[Randolph Kinney]

10-year yields surge above 2.3% on jobs report

U.S. sovereign bond yields surged Friday after the October jobs report handily beat expectations.

The U.S. economy added 271,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department said, with the unemployment rate falling to 5 percent. Economists polled by Reuters forecast about 180,000 new jobs were added in October, with unemployment holding at September's 5.1 percent rate.

"It's very encouraging to see a solid monthly job gain at the same time better wage growth but perspective is always important. ADP on Wednesday said the average job gains over the past three months for the private sector was 185,000," Peter Boockvar, chief market analyst at The Lindsey Group, said in a note.

After today's BLS figure of 268k, the government's 3 month average is 181k for the private sector. Thus, the October strong figure is a mean reversion print from the soft numbers seen in August and September," he said.

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/06/treasury-yields-dip-from-highs-ahead-of-jobs-report.html

The market is leading the FED on the increase in interest rates. It might be an eye-opener next year for housing and mortgages.

 

[Randolph Kinney]

Employment has improved for the 25 to 54 age group although the labor force participation rate has not improved.

Looks good enough for a FED rate hike.

 

[Randolph Kinney]

Below is the breakdown of select industries which, according to the BLS, were most active in October hiring. The breakdown:

• Education and Health: +57K
• Professional Services: +54K
• Retail Trade: +44K
• Leisure and Hospitality: +41K
• Temp Help: +25K

And Manufacturing workers: +0

In short, one more month where the bulk of job additions went to the lowest paying jobs, including teachers, waiters, entry level professionals, retail trade, and temp workers, while the US industrial economy continues to stagnate.

Visually:





And here is the breakdown of waiters vs manufacturing workers since December 2007: the former up 1.5 million; the latter down 1.4 million.

 

[Randolph Kinney]

The 'crapification' of jobs is the direct result of the 'crapification' of the economy

The decline in the quality, pay and upward mobility of jobs is directly related to the dynamics of globalization, financialization, and the surplus of ordinary labor and capital.

Rents, taxes, healthcare, government fees, etc. all rise like clockwork; that leaves labor as the largest component that can be trimmed.

With the cost of capital at all-time lows, the pressure to replace costly labor with new software, robotics, etc. is intense. Software, robotics and related technologies are dropping in price even as their productivity increases.

Employees tend to overlook the overhead costs paid by employers: workers compensation insurance (soaring), healthcare insurance (soaring), disability insurance, unemployment insurance, 401K or pension contributions, etc. Total compensation costs = wages + labor overhead. If labor overhead costs are climbing, the employer is paying more per employee even though the employees aren't getting a dime more in wages.

As system costs rise, those with stagnant incomes have less to spend. The share of income that is truly disposable is declining as the big-ticket expenses continue rising.

The net result of stagnating income for 90% of the households is stagnant sales.

 

[Randolph Kinney]

"The most liquid capital markets in the world," were halted for 5 seconds this morning as "great news" on surging jobs sent bond markets into turmoil ...

 

[Meandering]

Just wait a ding dong minute here:

The U.S. economy added 271,000 jobs last month,

the average job gains over the past three months for the private sector was 185,000," Peter Boockvar, chief market analyst at The Lindsey Group, said in a note.

So was 86,000 of these new jobs government jobs, if not private sector jobs?

Does that roughly equate to 2 private sector jobs for every one government job? Or 50% of the income from each private sector job to pay for the wages of the public sector employee?

Oh here's big news.

One of Yellen's Most Important Labor Market Measures Now Looks a Lot Better


.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-labor-market-measures-now-looks-a-lot-better

Like throwing a chair off the deck of the titanic and claiming it weighs less now.

.