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Housing Bubble Bursting?

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Time for the FED to raise interest rates

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After many years of ultra-accommodative policies, it is clear that ongoing interventions have failed to boost actual economic growth and only exacerbated the destruction of the middle class. It is clear that employment growth has only been a function of population growth, as witnessed by the ongoing decline in the labor force participation rates and the surging levels of individuals that have fallen out of the workforce. While we will continue to operate to foster maximum employment and price stability, the reality is that the economy overall remains far too weak to sustain higher interest rates or any tightening of monetary policy.

That's the real message the FED should have sent.
 
Free trade for everyone (except for you, your job goes to China)

ArcelorMittal is taking the latest knock from record Chinese steel exports hurting producers across the globe.

The world’s biggest steelmaker on Friday cut its full-year profit target and suspended its dividend, putting the blame on the flood of cheap steel from China’s loss-making mills. The market is being overwhelmed with material coming from the nation’s state-owned and state-supported producers, a collection of industry associations said Thursday.

“It is obvious that we are operating in a very challenging market,” Chief Financial Officer Aditya Mittal said on a call with reporters. “This is essentially the result of very low export prices out of China that are impacting prices worldwide.”

The steel industry has been roiled by the slowest economic growth in two decades in China, the biggest consumer. The flood of cheap exports from the nation has drawn complaints from Europe and the U.S. that the shipments are unfair. Bloomberg Intelligence estimates Chinese steel shipments overseas will exceed 100 million metric tons this year, more than the combined output of Europe’s top four producing countries.

While demand for steel in the company’s largest markets of the U.S. and Europe is recovering, producers’ profits are being hit by slumping prices because China has been pushing excess supply onto the world market as its economy slows.

“This is not an economic crisis, it is not a volume crisis, it is an import crisis,” Mittal said. “Our core markets of Europe and Nafta are still growing,” he said, referring to North American Free Trade Agreement.

Mittal said exports into the Nafta region from China rose 30 percent to 40 percent in the first half while those to Europe gained about 40 percent in the first nine months of the year. ArcelorMittal lowered its expectations for steel demand in China, forecasting that consumption would contract by 3.5 percent this year.

“Global steel prices continue to deteriorate,” said Seth Rosenfeld, an analyst at Jefferies International Ltd. in London.

“The pricing that is coming out of China is just not sustainable,” Mittal said. “The volume of losses that they are encountering is very significant. Their problem is being amplified and then exported on to our markets.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...2015-profit-target-as-quarterly-earnings-fall

Time to raise interest rates! :rof:
 
US housing recovery divided on age, race and place

WASHINGTON (AP) — It's the most profitable time to sell a house since the Great Recession started in late 2007. But first-time buyers are increasingly scarce.

More Americans are qualifying for mortgages, yet minorities still get disproportionately rejected.

Three new industry analyses released Thursday show that the recovering economy has produced a divided U.S. housing market. Where people live, their age and the color of their skin have largely influenced who has benefited as real estate continues to heal from the bursting of a mortgage bubble that triggered the worst economic downturn in nearly 80 years.

Budding sales growth over the past year has overwhelmingly helped existing owners who are seeking an upgrade. But the millennials buying their first home are being priced out of the market because student debt has prevented them from saving. And a major gap exists among who qualifies for a mortgage even as the overall approval rate improves.

SELLER'S MARKET

Between July and September, sellers unloaded their homes for an average of $40,658 more than they paid for their properties, according to RealtyTrac, the California-based real estate information company. This was the largest profit recorded since the third quarter of 2007, although it remains below profits averaging in excess of $100,000 during the height of the boom in late 2005.

The financial gains might be enough to coax more people to list their properties for sale, ending a shortage of homes on the market.

The profits are "enough to say, yes, I can leverage this into moving up and buying a bigger home," said Daren Blomquist, a vice president at RealtyTrac.

But not all markets are equal.

Sellers in San Francisco pocketed $463,505. Manhattanites reaped $385,909. Those in Washington, D.C. made $130,593, while sellers in Los Angeles came away with $115,573.

Meanwhile, housing in other major U.S. counties sold on average at a loss.

This includes the Chicago suburbs outside Cook County, with McHenry County sellers losing an average of $19,849. Sellers tended to unload properties for less than they paid in Baltimore, Cincinnati, Milwaukee and Tampa, Florida.

"In some cases, it may have to do with outlying areas that people were willing to buy into during the housing bubble," Blomquist said. "They're not close enough to jobs to make sense for buyers now."

FIRST-TIME STRUGGLES

Millennials, ages 18 to 34, face a less affordable housing market than their parents, forcing them to put off ownership.

The share of first-time homebuyers has fallen for the third consecutive year to its lowest level since 1987, according to a survey by the National Association of Realtors.

First-timers accounted for less than a third of sales that are expected to comfortably exceed 5 million this year. This group has traditionally represented 40 percent of sales.

The Realtors survey indicates that student loans and other debts have delayed down payment savings by a median of three years. A quarter of the first-time buyers identified saving for a down payment as their biggest challenge, with the majority of this group saying that education loans hurt their ability to set aside money.

This problem may only worsen as student debt burdens continue to expand.

College borrowers who graduated in 2014 finished on average with $28,950 in debt, a 31 percent increase over the past decade after adjusting for inflation, according to a report last week by The Institute for College Access and Success.

MORTGAGE APPROVALS

It's gotten easier to receive a mortgage, yet black and Hispanic homebuyers continue to lag substantially behind whites and Asians.

The mortgage rejection rate fell last year to 11.2 percent from 12.4 percent in 2013, according to Zillow, the real estate marketplace.

The rejection rate for blacks also fell over the past year, but it remains elevated at 23.5 percent. Just 2.5 percent of approvals for conventional mortgages went to blacks in 2014, even though they represent 12 percent of the U.S. population.

Hispanics face similar obstacles. They composed only 5.5 percent of mortgage approvals, despite being 17.3 percent of the population.

One of the issues is that home values in minority communities have been slower to rebound for the recession.

Zillow found that home prices in primarily white neighborhoods are 4.7 percent below their peak, compared to being 20.3 percent below in neighborhoods that are predominantly Hispanic neighborhoods and 16.7 percent in neighborhoods that are largely black.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-housing-recovery-divided-age-race-place-170939844--finance.html

So seller's in 4 major cities made a profit, and that's what makes the market "good" across the country?

.
 
Doubters question 'strange' stock market rebound

LONDON/MILAN (Reuters) - The double-digit stock-market rebound after a bruising summer has put European shares back into positive territory for the year, but sentiment around the central-bank-fueled rally remains fragile.

Weak trading volumes, a so-far disappointing earnings season and a focus on reliable dividend payouts rather than blockbuster growth have all contributed to the view that investors are being sucked into a market updraft rather than enthusiastically betting on a cyclical upturn.

"We can observe that the market continued to be really driven by what is going on with the central banks. If we just look at the fundamentals of the economy it's very difficult to be very optimistic about equities," Jérôme Schupp, Head of Research at SYZ Asset Management, said.

"We had a very strong month of October after two weak months. I don't expect this positive trend to continue."

There are a few reasons to be fearful. On the investor side, European hedge funds have actually been reducing exposure to stocks while the market has rallied, according to strategists at Morgan Stanley.
This is in contrast to what is happening in the United States, they suggest, adding that the exposure data usually tracks equity performance relatively closely. Volumes have also been weak. While August's falls were partly attributed to low volumes, October saw even less trade.

The corporate landscape is mixed at best. Third-quarter earnings are expected to decline 4.3 percent from 2014, and 44 percent of companies on the STOXX 600 <.STOXX> that have reported results have beaten expectations. Typically, 49 percent of firms beat expectations.

Strategists at Barclays also find that the recent market rally has been not been backed up by a outperformance in the economically sensitive "cyclical" stocks. Even as bond markets are no longer pricing in deflation, the defensive parts of the equity markets are the ones outperforming.

"Frustratingly for us, while the overall market continues to closely track the outlook for inflation, style and sector performance has not," the strategists wrote in a note, adding it was different to the rally in the first half of the year. "This time round, although we have had the rally in the market, we have not experienced the same pro-cyclical rotation within the market. Strange indeed."

Even against this underwhelming backdrop, however, there is an overriding feeling that equities may still remain the only game in town - especially for those in search of yield.

High-yielding "defensive" stocks like drugmakers or utilities are especially in favor for their bond-like properties in a low-interest rate environment.

With macro conditions unpredictable and a possible Fed rate rise on the table before the year is out, the "bond proxy" play could be under threat if investors switch back into bonds.

Bullish notes from the likes of Citi and Bank of America/Merrill Lynch have cited policy support from the European Central Bank and the generally cautious sentiment as a reason to keep the faith and carry on with a "Buy Europe" strategy.

"While the concerns regarding global growth have not yet lifted, as could be seen by the continued pressure on the commodity sector, the renewed willingness of the (European Central Bank) to extend stimulus (has been) enough to dispel the gloom," Clodagh Muldoon, equity strategist at BNP Paribas, said in a note.

"For how long is anyone's guess, but we shall take what we can."
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/doubters-strange-stock-market-rebound-155454732--sector.html

It just goes up, and nobody knows why.
Don't worry, just buy
just buy
just buy

Yeah, okay.

.
 
My rural County is slowly slowly increasing from the drop after the 2006/2008 highs. Low end is higher, middle steady, high not recovering except on rural acreage and recreational a slow gain on low and middle, but very few high sales. So one has t run a two to three year comparison to see if there is any change on the subject amenities set you have on every appraisal. New construction in rural areas is now increasing, but not in towns or subdivisions. County wide MLS data is skewed by recreational properties that have a high turn rate in late spring to fall. I put the Indiana Assn of RALTORS Public monthly MLS County data and My own MLS comparison of Y2Y comparables of the subject in each report.

They are again pushing the 100% financing which along with the 125% of value secondary loans was the precursor to the last upheaval.
 
Hey Sid,

I was in Bloomington a year ago, last week, and noticed that the local newspaper had a slew of advertised jobs then. Here, not even a full page in the classified section. Jobs availability makes all the difference.
 
If the Chinese are ever able to get "THEIR" pipeline finished, they will be able to gain access to our oil, refine it and ship it throughout Asia at the expense of American jobs, just like they have done with steel

Free trade for everyone (except for you, your job goes to China)

ArcelorMittal is taking the latest knock from record Chinese steel exports hurting producers across the globe.

The world’s biggest steelmaker on Friday cut its full-year profit target and suspended its dividend, putting the blame on the flood of cheap steel from China’s loss-making mills. The market is being overwhelmed with material coming from the nation’s state-owned and state-supported producers, a collection of industry associations said Thursday.

“It is obvious that we are operating in a very challenging market,” Chief Financial Officer Aditya Mittal said on a call with reporters. “This is essentially the result of very low export prices out of China that are impacting prices worldwide.”

The steel industry has been roiled by the slowest economic growth in two decades in China, the biggest consumer. The flood of cheap exports from the nation has drawn complaints from Europe and the U.S. that the shipments are unfair. Bloomberg Intelligence estimates Chinese steel shipments overseas will exceed 100 million metric tons this year, more than the combined output of Europe’s top four producing countries.

While demand for steel in the company’s largest markets of the U.S. and Europe is recovering, producers’ profits are being hit by slumping prices because China has been pushing excess supply onto the world market as its economy slows.

“This is not an economic crisis, it is not a volume crisis, it is an import crisis,” Mittal said. “Our core markets of Europe and Nafta are still growing,” he said, referring to North American Free Trade Agreement.

Mittal said exports into the Nafta region from China rose 30 percent to 40 percent in the first half while those to Europe gained about 40 percent in the first nine months of the year. ArcelorMittal lowered its expectations for steel demand in China, forecasting that consumption would contract by 3.5 percent this year.

“Global steel prices continue to deteriorate,” said Seth Rosenfeld, an analyst at Jefferies International Ltd. in London.

“The pricing that is coming out of China is just not sustainable,” Mittal said. “The volume of losses that they are encountering is very significant. Their problem is being amplified and then exported on to our markets.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...2015-profit-target-as-quarterly-earnings-fall

Time to raise interest rates! :rof:
 
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If the Chinese are ever able to get "THE" pipeline finished, they will be able to gain access to our oil, refine it and ship it throughout Asia at the expense of American jobs, just like they have done with steel

Citing Climate Change, Obama Rejects Construction of Keystone XL Oil Pipeline

WASHINGTON — President Obama announced on Friday that he had rejected the request from a Canadian company to build the Keystone XL oil pipeline, ending a seven-year review that had become a symbol of the debate over his climate policies.

oil sands to the Gulf Coast, comes as he seeks to build an ambitious legacy on climate change.

“America is now a global leader when it comes to taking serious action to fight climate change,” Mr. Obama said in remarks from the White House. “And, frankly, approving this project would have undercut that global leadership.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/07/u...ruction-of-keystone-xl-oil-pipeline.html?_r=0

th


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The Lafayette/West Lafayette/Purdue University is the center of employment and the fastest growing in the area. I am just one county out, it is 20 miles from my office. A new jet aircraft engine plant will start production soon (replacement engines for 707 and similar size) along with expanded Suburu, Alcoa extruding, Nanshan America Aluminum Casting, Purdue Industrial park start ups and several others increasing, with the Caterpillar large engine plant laying off.

The high cost of gas, (tranportation cost) from out of county can be plotted with house values as you go further from Lafayette. Just over the 30 mile range is the low $. Intersecting circles from larger cities like Kokomo and Indianapolis with smaller circles from smaller job markets Rensselaer, Rochester and Logansport plots the market values. The recreational lakes with buyers from Chicago and Indianapolis push lake value beyond many locals reach.
 
Wow.

Remember that Lake Liston lady from a few years ago?

Maybe she should have held on to that property.
 
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