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Housing Bubble Bursting?

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One of these days Wall Street activity will match Main Street reality at a cost of billions of dollars in market capitalization. Mattress piggybank anyone?
 
In a subdivision located in Lake County, FL...

I have a listing there range priced from $399k-$435k

Last week I check the subdivision in the MLS.

There are two new actives. Same model. Golf course lots as well. Both have pools too, so very similar to my listing.

They are listed at $350k and $355k.

A few days ago a couple more similar models pop up, though no pool...

$299k and $310k.

There are 49 active properties for sale in there.

There are ZERO in pending status.

A woman in there is having financial trouble. Needs to sell her house she bought in the peak of the market.

She would need to sell it at $400k to break even.

A very similar house sold 3 months ago for...$300k.

There isn't just 1 active builder in there, but THREE. They all lowered prices and are focusing on smaller houses now. It's stealing every possible resale.

It was perhaps 3-4 weeks ago that the lowest priced house in there was $350k. They're falling fast.

Builders are also dumping inventory homes for nearly $100/sq ft.

Any subdivision with an active builder is really set to fall in prices.

People who bought in 2000-2003 can sell far below people who bought in 2005+ and still walk away pretty.

My guy paid $377k for his house. The folks selling for $299k paid $158k six years ago.

Anyway, prices were failry steady up until the builders made large price cuts in January. Now they are dropping at a very dramatic pace.
 
For some reason I have a much keener interest in the SoCal market versus National. Markets are local, and National versus SoCal... We're not even on the same page. :shrug:

Most of my markets are gradual decline, to soft, to stable.
Based on the stats I create for every appraisal. No mass exodus or big declines so far. I wish. :leeann2:
 
Lee,

Yep.

And despite what Randoplh has said- I am sure he has a handle on the markets he works alright- or what Moh says, the facts actually remain.

Year over year- 12/05-12/06 none of the Socal Counties are actually down in resale values. This wqeekend the KLA Times had the Dataquck info for San Diego County and it was up .9% year over year.

OF COURSE, the trend is down. Still the hard numbers cannot be ignored- never can.

Brad
 
Brad Ellis said:
Lee,

Yep.

And despite what Randoplh has said- I am sure he has a handle on the markets he works alright- or what Moh says, the facts actually remain.

Year over year- 12/05-12/06 none of the Socal Counties are actually down in resale values. This wqeekend the KLA Times had the Dataquck info for San Diego County and it was up .9% year over year.

OF COURSE, the trend is down. Still the hard numbers cannot be ignored- never can.

Brad
Click to expand...
Brad,
Well come back to the discussion. This thread is still going on and it may take some more times to find out what is really going on. The market eventually is going to show its face. So far, the sub-prime lenders have given up and most of them have closed down their shops or are in the process to do so or they are changing their policies and tightening their rules. That by itself takes out a portion of hungry buyers who used to take any price at any time as long as there was some sub-prime lender to lend them money. For that reason only, the supply is currently exceeding, DOM is increasing and listing prices are decreasing in markets that were affected by sub prime lenders risky activities. People are not going to give up their homes that they are living in real easy but those who have 2 or 3 homes and cannot make the mortgage payment will get rid of them no matter what. I think within next 11 months we should find out what direction the market is going. The odds are that it is going to go further down but gradually and constantly in Socal.
 
Brad Ellis said:
Lee,

Yep.

And despite what Randoplh has said- I am sure he has a handle on the markets he works alright- or what Moh says, the facts actually remain.

Year over year- 12/05-12/06 none of the Socal Counties are actually down in resale values. This wqeekend the KLA Times had the Dataquck info for San Diego County and it was up .9% year over year.

OF COURSE, the trend is down. Still the hard numbers cannot be ignored- never can.

Brad
Click to expand...
Hi Brad,

Do you want appraisers to quote KLA Times and DataQuick as the source for checking the stable box on the 1004? Maybe even checking the increasing box? What about short sales and foreclosure activity? Any mention of those?

Are you seeing any appraisals coming out of San Diego county with the declining box checked and a neighborhood analysis included to support that? Or do the majority of appraisal you see mirror what DataQuick is saying, values are increasing? Just curious.
 
Foreclosures jump 25% in January

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/foreclosures-jump-25-january/story.aspx?guid=%7B92F4F738%2D0060%2D4356%2D96D9%2DFBD4D077CD7C%7D

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The number of U.S. homes entering the foreclosure process because of nonpayment on mortgages rose to 130,511 in January, 25% more than in January 2006, according to data released Monday by Realtytrac Inc.


The foreclosure rate was one for every 886 U.S. households.


The 130,511 foreclosures is the highest monthly total since the firm began tracking national foreclosures two years ago. Foreclosures were up 19% compared with December.
 
Good article

The main thing it tells me is that the housing market is anything but uniform.
 
Randolph,

"Do you want appraisers to quote KLA Times and DataQuick as the source for checking the stable box on the 1004? Maybe even checking the increasing box? What about short sales and foreclosure activity? Any mention of those?

Are you seeing any appraisals coming out of San Diego county with the declining box checked and a neighborhood analysis included to support that? Or do the majority of appraisal you see mirror what DataQuick is saying, values are increasing? Just curious."

Gee, Randolph, I do not know. Would you call an entire county a neighborhood? I am sure that is accurate for a few really remote areas but would not think that applies to San Diego county. So- of course not.

Reports I am seeing are generally talkling about stabilization of values in the county- some indicating declines even for SFRs, but these comments are generally neighborhood specific. About the only generalization I see is on the SD condo market where almost everyone is saying declining.

And no- I do not consider newspapers as sources- I do consider Dataquick info as a source but remember this is about a neighborhood and not a whole county. So- to the point- as I said you appear to know your markets and have told us for a while now about the declines, but that would also mean that if your markets are in decline then some others in the county must be going up if the county-wide data is actually up- no?

Brad
 
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