Housing Bubble Bursting?

[Randolph Kinney]

I sure don't know, because you accuse me of tunnel vision.

Moh assures me that my 30 year real estate record is a fluke of speculation.

All I know is I'm making money, tons of it.

Wink, wink my Coldwater Creek stock is up 50% since January 2006. Dumb luck, works every time.

Mike, you are too sensitive. No one says you are not making money from your job. But I have and I am saying you are confusing your job with investing. You remind me of people who go out to find aluminium cans and bottles. They turn them in for the deposit money. Wow! Look at the profit percentage. Something for nothing. Nothing can compete with that.

It is sad that all you know about is your job and only one way to invest: Real Estate.

 

[Randolph Kinney]

Easy question to answer, gold is always a good inflation hedge and the big run up in real estate prices signaled significant inflation is on the way.

And don't you know that the FED watches the prices of commodities closely and gold particularly to gauge future expectations?

People do vote their concerns with their money.

So what can one expect about the future concerning interest rates?

 

[DTB]

Mike, you are too sensitive. No one says you are not making money from your job. But I have and I am saying you are confusing your job with investing. You remind me of people who go out to find aluminium cans and bottles. They turn them in for the deposit money. Wow! Look at the profit percentage. Something for nothing. Nothing can compete with that.

It is sad that all you know about is your job and only one way to invest: Real Estate.

Now I'm sad and confused?????
I thought I was happy and cleaning up, until now.

You guys crack me up!!

I know a lot of smart guys, they call them professors. Some of them are pretty good tenants.

 

[Randolph Kinney]

Now I'm sad and confused?????
I thought I was happy and cleaning up, until now.

You guys crack me up!!

I know a lot of smart guys, they call them professors. Some of them are pretty good tenants.

Do you know the difference between an unhappy Socrates and a happy clam? Which one are you? :icon_smile:

Here is a chart of silver prices Mike, oh wise one. What is it telling you?

 

[Mike Simpson]

"It is sad that all you know about is your job and only one way to invest: Real Estate."

What's sad is this incessant bubble babble & ill will towards those who see it differently...

There's been more "tipping points" presented here over the years than one can recall, and now we've got precious medals 'experts' insinuating inflation is 'imminent.' Here's what you're missing (courtesy of FTN);

We're already beginning to see current indicators of a future turning point; economic growth will begin slowing considerably between now & year end.

Rising rates will begin taking their toll...resulting in tighter credit conditions = slowing home sales & spotty retail sales. Look for tightening mortgage loan standards & coming changes in mortgage regulations to result in further declining sales & prices (George's last post touched upon this issue).

Housing alone could cut GDP in half in the next year. Look for GDP Growth to bottom towards the end of this year @ about 1.5%...after which...expect a rebound.

The Fed has been tightening for 2 straight years. However, the housing markets have peaked, borrowing is slowing, and spending will soon slow as the economy slows. Look for the Fed to tighten again 25bp in May & then move into a holding pattern (too optomistic?). Look for them to cut 25bp in the 4th quarter & 50bp in the 1st quarter of '07' (now that IS optomistic isn't it?).

10 yr. bond has little upside left. Look for a fractional decline this quarter followed by a faster drop later this year. Look for the yield to bottom to 4.5% by late 2007.

Synopsis?: No Bubble (Bubble-Heads are finally starting to dissapear after 5 years & counting as their silly predictions have failed to materialize). The soft-landing scenario is unfolding in some areas of the country & will continue with the biggest declines in prices (still small by Forum standards) coming in those areas that saw the greatest speculation the past few years.

"Do you know the difference between an unhappy Socrates and a happy clam? Which one are you?"

I think guys like Neff are very content in the fact their expertise, knowledge and understanding of the housing markets are making them wealthy (THAT's The American Way!). I mean...why not give him credit for his talent, education, and ability?

There's something about success, and the security it brings that will always over ride silly (acerbic) comments like the one above. I'm bettin he's happy as a clam!

-Mike

 

[Randolph Kinney]

Mike N. & Mike S.

What I see as amusing (to me) is that both of you refuse to acknowledge when anyone tells you that they believe you, that you are making money from your job. No! No! No! It is not a job, it is investing. Okay, it is your form of investing. And that is Okay, you make money any way you can.

Neither of you seem to be aware or have any knowledge in other areas of investing. You can't make relevant comments on interest rates, inflation, supply and demand and how they relate to what you do or other investment vehicles. We believe you both, you are immune to the business cycle.

As to a bubble, that does not mean much except to you. To you, it means a catastrophic decline in the value of real estate. It may not be catastrophic to everyone. It may be an investment opportunity.

I'm bettin he's happy as a clam!

I thought so too, I agree with you. The reason why Socretes is unhappy is because he has knowledge whereas the clam is happy because he has no knowledge. In other words, the clam is just ignorant and does not know enough to be unhappy like Socretes. :icon_smile:

 

[JSmith43]

Do you know the difference between an unhappy Socrates and a happy clam? Which one are you? :icon_smile:

Here is a chart of silver prices Mike, oh wise one. What is it telling you?

It tells me the Hunt brothers were about 20+ years off on their market timing

 

[Bobby Bucks]

A job or investing? The only opinion that matters with that question is the one the IRS has. I wonder if they have people following this thread. I've been informed the IMF and World Bank are tracking it.

 

[Randolph Kinney]

It tells me the Hunt brothers were about 20+ years off on their market timing

It does smack of that time when inflation was beginning to rise and the FED was asleep or as they say, behind the curve on interest rates.:new_popcornsmiley:

 

[moh malekpour]

Mike Neff or Simpson:

I would like to repeat the Austin sentence earlier on this thread.
The problem I have with some people on this issue, like Mike, is that they look at this situation from their perspective and not the perspective of the nation as a whole
He is right.You guys are really self-center and see everything fromm your own perspective. You put yourself in the middle of any discussion that negates the real estate down turn as if you are representing all real estate investors. There is no doubt that there are astute and experienced investors in equity, bonds or real estate markets that are able to make money no matter what direction the market is going. It doesn’t change the fact of the market direction but just indicates the exceptional knowledge and expertise of experiences investors. But if you are one of 100 investors out there in which 99 of them are blindly speculating, there is a reasonable conclusion that you might be doing the same thing, however as I said there is always exceptional cases that you might be so astute and experienced that you could make money in the down market. So, instead of throwing yourself as a representative of investors world, you should confess to the reality and be proud that although, there is a down market but you are using your expertise and make money.
I posted the four phases of real estate market for investors like you to see. This is good guide for amateur investors so; they know when the wave is coming. I hope, you will accept that there is nothing permanent in this world and there is a cycle in everything but it doesn’t stop an experienced person to make money if the cycle is on the down turn. Unfortunately some inexperienced investors try to catch a falling sword. I hope you are not one of them.