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Housing Bubble Bursting?

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Overvaluation, much like poor income documentation, should be caught at the underwriting level. Poor underwriting does not cause defaults per say but will cause higher default rates than predicted as it will allow loans to be funded which do not fit credit policy.
 
Bernanke Keeps `Inflation Bias,' Sees Growth Risks

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=axc.1t5mTiH4&refer=worldwide

March 28 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said monetary policy is still aimed at combating inflation even though risks to economic growth are multiplying.


``Our policy is still oriented towards control of inflation, which we consider to be at this time to be the greater risk,'' he told the Joint Economic Committee of Congress in Washington today. Still, ``uncertainties have risen, and therefore a little more flexibility might be desirable.''


His comments contained no reference to a possible interest rate cut, which some economists predict as soon as next quarter. Bernanke said the central bank last week dropped its stated tilt toward higher borrowing costs because policy makers wanted more room to maneuver. Policy makers want to move away from guidance on future rate decisions, he added.


``Neutral policy would be one where there is sense that the risks are weighted equally on both sides of the dual mandate, and therefore policy is essentially unpredictable and it depends on events as they come forward,'' Bernanke said. ``I do want to emphasize that we have not shifted away from an inflation bias.''
 
Overvaluation, much like poor income documentation, should be caught at the underwriting level. Poor underwriting does not cause defaults per say but will cause higher default rates than predicted as it will allow loans to be funded which do not fit credit policy.
I stand corrected Scott. You are astute to say the default rate reflects poor underwriting.

I said a loan default reflects bad underwriting.
 
I don’t think it is helpful to be self-protective. We as appraisers are trained to be unbiased but when it comes to our affiliate or ourselves; we become self-protective and defensive.
It is not good to say that everyone out there is bad but I am not one of them and later they found out that I am one of them with different name and size.
 
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Merrill Subprime Risks May Be Understated, Bank of America Analysts Say

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=akwmWRlI5xZk&refer=worldwide

March 28 (Bloomberg) -- Losses from subprime home loans may make Merrill Lynch & Co. bonds riskier than debt issued by Bear Stearns Cos., the biggest U.S. underwriter of mortgage bonds, Bank of America Corp. analysts said.


Merrill may have the most potential for losses from so- called collateralized debt obligations, or CDOs, that repackage bonds backed by mortgages, analysts led by Jeffrey Rosenberg in New York wrote in a research note dated yesterday. Among those mortgages are subprime loans.


``The relative exposure to Merrill is likely understated,'' Rosenberg said in an interview. Underwriting data ``suggest Merrill Lynch has the most exposure of the brokers to subprime through the origination of CDOs,'' his team wrote.

Merrill arranged $46 billion in structured-finance CDOs last year, garnering 24 percent of the market, according to data in the Bank of America report. Citigroup Inc. was second, with $21.3 billion, or 11 percent. Bear Stearns was 10th on the list, packaging $9.4 billion of the deals, or 4.9 percent.


Merrill's ``relative absence'' from CDOs backed by corporate loans, the second-largest part of the CDO market, ``suggests fairly concentrated market exposure to the structured-finance segment,'' the analysts wrote.

The firm's profits also may be hurt by its $1.3 billion purchase of First Franklin Financial Corp., the nation's 10th- largest originator of subprime mortgages as of September, the analysts said.


``You may not have a revenue issue, and you may not therefore have an equity market issue, but you may have a credit issue because you have a balance sheet issue,'' Rosenberg said in the interview.
 
GMAC Mortgage Unit's Subprime Losses to Hurt Earnings

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601208&sid=a.ToQmp3YtO8&refer=finance

March 28 (Bloomberg) -- GMAC LLC said losses at its Residential Capital home mortgage division, which includes subprime loans in its portfolio, will hurt profit this year as defaults and foreclosures surge.


GMAC is making changes at the mortgage unit, also known as ResCap, to limit losses, the company said in a slide presentation included in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing today. GMAC said it's ``sharply'' cutting non-prime mortgage lending and expanding efforts to cut losses from bad loans.

Rescap, based in Minneapolis, is the seventh-largest originator and servicer of U.S. residential mortgage loans and ranked as the 12th-largest U.S. subprime home lender. It operates under brands including GMAC Mortgage and Ditech.com.


The ResCap unit posted a fourth-quarter operating loss of $651 million, compared with profit of $118 million a year earlier, GMAC said March 13.
 
Feds Are Investigating Homebuilder Beazer

http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily...32.htm?chan=top+news_top+news+index_top+story

Amid the meltdown of the subprime housing sector, mortgage lenders and brokers have come under fire from state and federal officials for predatory lending practices with those risky borrowers. Now one national homebuilder is feeling the heat. BusinessWeek has learned that federal investigators have opened a broad criminal probe into lending practices, some financial transactions, and other dealings at Beazer Homes USA

The North Carolina field offices of the Federal Bureau of Investigation, the Internal Revenue Service, and the Justice Dept. have recently opened a joint investigation into the company over such matters.
The Inspector General of Housing & Urban Development is also part of the group since a large percentage of Beazer's loans were made to low-income borrowers and insured by the federal government through the Government National Mortgage Assn., according to people familiar with the investigation.
NAHB President Brian Catalde said in a statement. "Lending standards apparently are tightening not only in the subprime market but in other components of mortgage lending as well, and this is creating tremendous uncertainties regarding the near-term outlook for homes sales and housing production
 
IndyMac Chief Executive, Director Buy Lenders' Stock After Drop

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601208&sid=a6UITlTgmO6A&refer=finance

March 28 (Bloomberg) -- IndyMac Bancorp Inc. Chief Executive Officer Michael Perry and director Robert Hunt each bought more than $1 million of the lender's shares in the past week after investor concerns about U.S. mortgage defaults cut their value.


Perry, also the company's chairman, bought 35,000 shares on March 23 at prices between $29.40 and $29.50, according to a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Hunt, formerly president and chief operating officer at Coast Federal Bank, purchased 35,000 shares on March 23 and 26 at prices ranging from $29 to $29.50, a separate filing shows.


IndyMac's stock has lost more than a third of its value this year as a surge of mortgage defaults, led by loans to subprime borrowers, has prompted investors to sell shares of home finance companies on concerns that bad loans will continue to mount. The number of lenders who have shuttered operations or sought buyers has risen to more than 30 in the past year.
 
Good News Brad!

Brad, I posted the Bloomberg article on Indymac where your CEO and a director each bought $1 million dollars worth of company stock.

Just to put that into prospective, the public float of Indymac stock is 71.6 million shares. 18.7% of that is sold short or 13.39 million shares.

Nice gesture on your company officer's and director's part to indicate a vote of confidence. Time will tell if they are going to be rewarded or punished when Indymac's earnings and loan loss reports are released going forward.
 
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