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Housing Bubble Bursting?

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Steve, it all depends on which article you read about what Bernacke said. I posted one from Bloomberg just a few post back. see the link

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=axc.1t5mTiH4&refer=worldwide

March 28 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said monetary policy is still aimed at combating inflation even though risks to economic growth are multiplying.


``Our policy is still oriented towards control of inflation, which we consider to be at this time to be the greater risk,'' he told the Joint Economic Committee of Congress in Washington today. Still, ``uncertainties have risen, and therefore a little more flexibility might be desirable.''
Now do your really expect Bernacke to actually say that risk from subprime specifically and mortgages in general are spreading to other parts of the economy?

I guess he feels he needs flexibility just in case problems get out of hand.
 
H&R Block Shares May Rise on Option One Sale, UBS Says

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601208&sid=alxFluFxtVTE&refer=finance

March 28 (Bloomberg) -- H&R Block Inc. shares may rise if the company agrees to sell its money-losing mortgage unit, even if the price is lower than Chief Executive Officer Mark Ernst's $1.3 billion target, UBS AG analyst Kelly Flynn said.


A $400 million to $800 million sale of Option One Mortgage Corp. would help H&R Block shares rise by $1 to $2, said Flynn in a note to investors today. Flynn, who's the most accurate analyst on H&R Block's earnings according to StarMine, said a ``no sale'' announcement could make the shares fall by the same amount.

``The management's $1.3 billion price target looks unattainable unless H&R Block assumes significant liabilities related to early payment defaults,'' Flynn said.
 
Just some info from chicken little..cluck...cluck..

Pay your share of subprime debt

By: ANN PERRY - Staff Writer

Think the subprime mortgage mess doesn't affect you?

Even if you don't own a home, or have never taken out one of these high-interest mortgages geared for borrowers with poor credit, you might need to think again.

You could own a piece of the multibillion-dollar market in risky mortgages ---- through your pension plan or a mutual fund.


As the bull market in housing rampaged between 2001 and 2006, Wall Street did not sit idly on the sidelines. It jumped in to enjoy the spoils.

Big-time investment companies, brokerage houses and mutual fund managers found several ways to partake: They bought shares in companies that made subprime mortgage loans to borrowers; they helped bundle the mortgages into securities that could be bought and sold, also known as CDOs, for collateralized debt obligations; and they added these securities to their investment portfolios.

With interest rates at historic lows in the earlier part of this decade, investment companies and mutual funds looked to higher-yielding mortgages to give their portfolios an income kick. Some major mutual fund companies, such as T. Rowe Price, American Century and Legg Mason Partners, invested in loans issued by subprime mortgage companies, according to a recent report by The New York Times.

Wall Street, with its insatiable need for growth and profits, provided the liquidity, or the cash, to keep the housing market revved up. Now that the cycle is unwinding ---- as subprime borrowers default and subprime lenders close up or consolidate ---- all of us could end up paying a price, though probably small or hard to pinpoint.

At a mortgage investment conference earlier this month at the La Costa Resort and Spa, executives with some of the biggest financial services companies in America were bemoaning that many subprime and other risky mortgages were going bad and could harm investors.

Those investors, one speaker noted wryly, "are probably your and my 401(k)."

We have only to look in our own neighborhood to find the evidence. Accredited Home Lenders, a publicly held Rancho Bernardo-based company that markets mainly subprime loans, has seen its stock tumble in recent weeks.

Some of those who could be sharing the pain are listed in the paperwork that Accredited is required to file with the Securities and Exchange Commission. As of Dec. 31, the biggest investors in the company included some hedge funds, major Wall Street brokerages and mutual funds, such as Goldman Sachs Small Cap Value Fund and Putnam Vista Fund.

Even if you didn't take out a subprime loan, you still might get stuck paying it off.

Contact Business Editor Ann Perry at (760) 740-5444 or aperry@nctimes.com. Comment at nctimes.com.

.
 
Top investor sees U.S. property crash

http://www.reuters.com/articlePrint?articleId=USL1470530620070314

Commodities investment guru Jim Rogers stepped into the U.S. subprime fray on Wednesday, predicting a real estate crash that would trigger defaults and spread contagion to emerging markets.
"You can't believe how bad it's going to get before it gets any better," the prominent U.S. fund manager told Reuters by telephone from New York.
"It's going to be a disaster for many people who don't have a clue about what happens when a real estate bubble pops
"It is going to be a huge mess," said Rogers, who has put his $15 million belle epoque mansion on Manhattan's Upper West Side on the market and is planning to move to Asia

"Real estate prices will go down 40-50 percent in bubble areas. There will be massive defaults. This time it'll be worse because we haven't had this kind of speculative buying in U.S. history," Rogers said.
"When markets turn from bubble to reality, a lot of people get burned."
 
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Subprime losses lead to drop in home ownership

http://money.cnn.com/2007/03/27/real_estate/subprime_losses_spike/index.htm?postversion=2007032716
Despite the mortgage industry's claims to the contrary, an advocacy group says that subprime foreclosures will leave 1 million fewer homeowners
CRL's analysis rebutted the mortgage industry's claims that the increase in subprime loans has opened up home ownership for millions of low income buyers. Instead, CRL contends, relatively little subprime lending is used for first-time home buying.
Testifying before the House Finance Committee today, CRL's president, Michael Calhoun, said the primary reason for the jump in foreclosures is "the abandonment of underwriting standards."
 
Moh, do you look for negative articles? You do know that for every negative article there is an opposite view. Do you look for those also, or do specifically look for the sky is fallng articles?
 
What the Federal Reserve's neutral bias policy means

On the one hand, we've got inflation in things we need to power, educate and feed the world.

On the other side of the equation, we have the specter of slowing global growth, a debt-laden consumer and cracks in the subprime mortgage market which, while isolated, is tied to the global machination through an intricate maze of derivatives.

There is a difference between legitimate economic growth and debt-induced demand.

One must juxtapose the U.S. dollar, which has declined 30% since 2002, against the appreciation in stocks. Viewed through that lens, we've gone nowhere fast for the past four years.

Alan Greenspan, who is widely credited with navigating our markets through turbulent times, hasn't done us any favors. He rode off into the sunset claiming victory, leaving consumers with adjustable-rate obligations while warning of recession as the dust settled behind him. Make no mistake, he left Ben Bernanke and the rest of us in a pretty pickle. We're up to our eyes in debt, with roughly $3.50 owed for every dollar of GDP. That'll mute the effect of cheaper money in a profound way.

Once credit demand and supply start to decline after a massive credit-based inflationary boom, a deflationary credit contraction becomes the most likely resolution. This isn't a popular statement, nor is it fun to fathom. Still, as we weigh the landscape and prepare to listen to our Fed chairman, it's a necessary context with which to absorb his vernacular.
 
Randolph,

1. Here is a paragraph right from Bernanke's statement that apparently everyone missed since no one posted it:

"Although the turmoil in the subprime mortgage market has created severe financial problems for many individuals and families, the implications of these developments for the housing market as a whole are less clear. The ongoing tightening of lending standards, although an appropriate market response, will reduce somewhat the effective demand for housing, and foreclosed properties will add to the inventories of unsold homes. At this juncture, however, the impact on the broader economy and financial markets of the problems in the subprime market seems likely to be contained. In particular, mortgages to prime borrowers and fixed-rate mortgages to all classes of borrowers continue to perform well, with low rates of delinquency. We will continue to monitor this situation closely." (bold added).

Frankley he is fully hedging his position but did not come out and say. "the sky is falling". I gues he is leaving that up to you guys.

2. As to stock purchases by our CEO and director, yes I knew about that. As of the close of the market today they are up about $2 per share, although I sincerely doubt that they are trading the stock.

Brad
 
Scott,

Prepay speeds? Sorry I missed that from a couple of weeks ago but I do not think anyone really knows.

What we do know is that virtually all of these subprimes carry 2 year minimum prepay penalties (often waived if you refi with the same lender, and obviously not in play where prohibited by law). So you asked what the impact will be if this speeds up or slows down.

Answer: I do not know. I would suggest, however, that there will be fewer prepays if refi volume decreases. And, given the impact of these penalties when rates are likely higher than they were at origination, I expect that would happen.

We do know that the further the borrower gets into the loan, the lower the rate of default. So, if you see prepays decrease without refis, that will mean defaults will be decreasing as well as the borrowers hold on to their properties longer.

Brad
 
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