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Housing Bubble Bursting?

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In reality, we as appraisers should have been adjusting our valuations DOWN to account for these accounting conditions, but how the heck would you calculate an adjustment for ARM financing?

I don't see the valuation change, just the level of market risk to be communicated to the investor, say the typical comp is propped up with 100% financing, or, worse yet, option arms with teaser rates in an environment of rising rate indices.

For the point value to be lowered, the discounting of the option arm financed comps would have to reflect the behavior of buyers and sellers at the particular point in time. No? I can see them now, hitting the gold key on their HP 12C.....not:rof:
 
In reality, we as appraisers should have been adjusting our valuations DOWN to account for these accounting conditions, but how the heck would you calculate an adjustment for ARM financing?
I've said the same thing for years, ever since I had my first appraisal class. Leverage greatly affects the price paid by the purchaser. I think prices paid by buyers should be adjusted to some "standard financing terms" which would likely need to be published by a federal agency. A major problem with such methods is the calculations involved are over the head of many residential appraisers. There is also the consideration that the ultimate price paid is actually unknown, for most properties, until the buyer later sells the property.

It's much easier to just look at how much cash did the seller get. It is, after all, the seller that has ultimate control of the transaction, since they have the control of the real estate. Most buyers and lenders alike tend to ignore the idea that real estate values can go down. Lending for 30 years based solely on "What is it worth today?" is stupid, IMHO.
 
I don't blame appraisers for secretly wanting to take over underwriter/investor functions. Not much skin in the game, so why not?

Imagine the claims, if underwriting and investment strategies became more a part of the appraiser's work product. A wrong forecast (miss a bubble:)), and bubble-ology was one of the touted skill sets, and damage claims may roll your way.

Too darned conservative in forecasting, and there is a loss of expectancy among the clients that decided not to gear up or even cut back, based upon the information. Maybe orthodoxy is the safe way to go for $350 prognostications:rof:
 
I've said the same thing for years, ever since I had my first appraisal class. Leverage greatly affects the price paid by the purchaser. I think prices paid by buyers should be adjusted to some "standard financing terms" which would likely need to be published by a federal agency. A major problem with such methods is the calculations involved are over the head of many residential appraisers.
They have the HAI (housing affordability index) that assumes a specific financing and terms with down payment.

In California, they have done away with HAI and replaced it with FTB-HAI (first time buyer - housing affordability index). Less than 9% of the population in the state of California can afford to buy a home using the HAI so CAR (California Association of Realtors) changed that to FTB-HAI, which today represents about 23% of the population using the "new" methodology.

What changed? HAI assumed fixed-rate mortgages for financing a home purchase, while the calculations used to produce the HAI reflected a 20 percent down payment. The methodology also assumed a monthly payment for principal, interest, taxes and insurance that was no more than 30 percent of a household’s income. The median price of homes was used.

The first time home buyer or entry level is defined as follows:

The information published by the California Association of Realtors shows the price of an entry-level home for first-time buyers has been approximately 15 percent below the median price of all existing homes on a consistent basis over the past 25 years. Moreover, first-timers generally make a down payment of 10 percent and use an adjustable rate mortgage (ARM). Lenders are commonly qualifying buyers at something other than the traditional debt to income ratio of 30 percent, more likely a 40 percent ratio, and even a 50 percent ratio in some cases. Thus, the FTB-HAI is based upon the following assumptions:

• median price of an entry-level home equal to 85 percent of prevailing median for all homes
• 10 percent down payment, corresponding to a 90 percent loan-to-value
• one-year arm index for previously occupied homes that includes points and fees, reported by the federal housing finance board
• qualifying ratio of 40 percent, meaning that the monthly payment (including taxes and insurance) cannot exceed 40 percent of household income.

Applying these assumptions to the market in the forth quarter of 2006, the minimum household income needed to purchase an entry-level home at $477,400 in California in the fourth quarter of 2006 was $96,760, based on an adjustable interest rate of 6.36 percent and assuming a 10 percent down payment. The monthly payment including taxes and insurance was $3,230 for the fourth quarter of 2006.

If the assumptions for FTB-HAI are violated, then you SHOULD adjust for financing. All the 100% financing, for example, should be adjusted. All the DTI ratios greater than 40% should be adjusted. All the ARMs that were not qualified on a fully indexed interest rate should be adjusted. And so on, and so forth.

However, we are not privy to all that information concerning the financing and details of the borrower's life. It would be a mess if we had to adjust for it. Therefore, cash to the seller seems like the only feasible way.

Financing and terms do make a difference on housing demand.
 
If the assumptions for FTB-HAI are violated, then you SHOULD adjust for financing. All the 100% financing, for example, should be adjusted. All the DTI ratios greater than 40% should be adjusted. All the ARMs that were not qualified on a fully indexed interest rate should be adjusted. And so on, and so forth.

That's like saying the definition of MV should be reinvented (I agree, but for many reasons).

Should appraisers in mortgage transactions not be appraising according to the definition of MV, simply because they disagree with the implied operating assumptions of the investors?

Is this not a quibble about financing terms readily available in the market (at the time of valuation)?
 
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That's like saying the definition of MV should be reinvented (I agree, but for many reasons).

Should appraisers in mortgage transactions not be appraising according to the definition of MV, simply because they disagree with the implied operating assumptions of the investors?

Is this not a quibble about financing terms readily available in the market (at the time of valuation)?
Roger, personally I don't care. The so-called definition of market value is too vague to pin down a condition for adjustment. It comes down to an individual appraiser's own judgment and interpretation.

Financing terms and conditions offered by the lending industry as a whole is, by definition, conventional. Investors are not the same as a typical buyer looking for shelter for himself and family.

MV as it is being defined does not consider conventional financing with its terms and conditions as an influence on the market value. Therefore you have an extreme situation creating maximum demand with cheap financing and terms that are geared to speculation.

Now that anyone who could buy a home has, any speculator wanting to speculate has, the only place left for demand is to go down. What happens to market value?
 
Perhaps valuation is not as important in the lending process (certainly its not important except as a hurdle to overcome for the MB) as are the terms of financing. The question arises. If it were law that no one could purchase a home without putting down 5% in cash, and no one could 'gift' them the cash, do you think sales activity would be considerably dampened? I do. I think a lot of investors, who may turn out to be dupes in a mortgage fraud, never had the money to begin with and without those 'investors' in the market, the prices we saw in 2005 would never have been achieved.
 
The so-called definition of market value is too vague to pin down a condition for adjustment.


Quote MV: Special or creative financing adjustments can be made to the comparable property by comparisons to financing terms offered by a third party institutional lender that is not already involved in the property or transactions.

I see a relative spurt of clarity in this part of the MV definition. It doesn't say "average terms" available in the market, nor is "conventional" financing pinned down to whatever market offerings were popular and considered prudent 20 years ago.

So, I believe appraisal orthodoxy and the current definition of MV has us stuck with accepting current financing of the comps with ARMS, 80/20's Option ARM's, etc, not requiring adjustments. However, nothing stops an appraiser from making prudent & defensible "house of cards" comments to their client, if they want.

Maybe a bubble thread link could be incorporated by reference in the reports....or a cut and paste, with permission from Wayne:)
 
Quote MV: Special or creative financing adjustments can be made to the comparable property by comparisons to financing terms offered by a third party institutional lender that is not already involved in the property or transactions.

I see a relative spurt of clarity in this part of the MV definition. It doesn't say "average terms" available in the market, nor is "conventional" financing pinned down to whatever market offerings were popular and considered prudent 20 years ago.

So, I believe appraisal orthodoxy and the current definition of MV has us stuck with accepting current financing of the comps with ARMS, 80/20's Option ARM's, etc, not requiring adjustments. However, nothing stops an appraiser from making prudent & defensible "house of cards" comments to their client, if they want.

Maybe a bubble thread link could be incorporated by reference in the reports....or a cut and paste, with permission from Wayne:)
Roger, according to elements found in USPAP and other sources for market value:


o Identification of the specific property rights to be appraised.
o Statement of the effective date of the value opinion.
o Specification as to whether cash, terms equivalent to cash, or other precisely described financing terms are assumed as the basis of the appraisal.
o If the appraisal is conditioned upon financing or other terms, specification as to whether the financing or terms are at, below or above market interest rates and/or contain unusual conditions or incentives. The terms of above- or below-market interest rates and/or other special incentives must be clearly set forth; their contribution to, or negative influence on, value must be described and estimated; and the market data supporting the opinion of value must be described and explained.

The following definition of market value is used by agencies that regulate federally insured financial institutions in the United States:

The most probable price which a property should bring in a competitive and open market under all conditions requisite to a fair sale, the buyer and seller each acting prudently and knowledgeably, and assuming the price is not affected by undue stimulus. Implicit in this definition is the consummation of a sale as of a specified date and the passing of title from seller to buyer under conditions whereby:
o Buyer and seller are typically motivated;
o Both parties are well informed or well advised, and acting in what they consider their best interests;
o A reasonable time is allowed for exposure in the open market;
o Payment is made in terms of cash in U.S. dollars or in terms of financial arrangements comparable thereto; and
o The price represents the normal consideration for the property sold unaffected by special or creative financing or sales concessions granted by anyone associated with the sale.

(12 C.F.R. Part 34.42(g); 55 Federal Register 34696, August 24, 1990, as amended at 57 Federal Register 12202, April 9, 1992; 59 Federal Register 29499, June 7, 1994)


Fannie Mae's preprinted market value definition:

The most probable price which a property should bring in a competitive and open market under all conditions requisite to a fair sale, the buyer and seller, each acting prudently, knowledgeably and assuming the price is not affected by undue stimulus. Implicit in this definition is the consummation of a sale as of a specified date and the passing of title from seller to buyer under conditions whereby:
(1) buyer and seller are typically motivated;
(2) both parties are well informed or well advised, and each acting in what he or she considers his or her own best interest;
(3) a reasonable time is allowed for exposure in the open market;
(4) payment is made in terms of cash in U. S. dollars or in terms of financial arrangements comparable thereto; and
(5) the price represents the normal consideration for the property sold unaffected by special or creative financing or sales concessions* granted by anyone associated with the sale.

*Adjustments to the comparables must be made for special or creative financing or sales concessions. No adjustments are necessary for those costs which are normally paid by sellers as a result of tradition or law in a market area; these costs are readily identifiable since the seller pays these costs in virtually all sales transactions. Special or creative financing adjustments can be made to the comparable property by comparisons to financing terms offered by a third party institutional lender that is not already involved in the property or transaction. Any adjustment should not be calculated on a mechanical dollar for dollar cost of the financing or concession but the dollar amount of any adjustment should approximate the market's reaction to the financing or concessions based on the appraiser's judgment.

All of the above is vague when it comes down to adjusting for financing or special factors that may be affecting the sale.

What is above market rate financing? Is that a subprime borrower paying a higher interest rate due to his credit score, or LTV, or DTI, or no closing cost loan?

Does it matter that availability of 100% LTV financing is being curtailed or minimum credit scores are being raised to qualify for a loan?

Seems like to me the market value floats with the available financing for the least qualified buyer.
 
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