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Housing Bubble Bursting?

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Auto Industry `Surprisingly Weak' in April

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aWj6us7awTOA&refer=us

April 27 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. auto sales in April were ``surprisingly weak'' industrywide, Ford Motor Co. sales analyst George Pipas said today.


The results were affected by a housing slump, rising gasoline prices and a slowdown in economic growth, Pipas said in an interview.


``It's as if the cumulative effect of these landed in April,'' Pipas said.


First-quarter U.S. auto sales slid 1.2 percent. General Motors Corp. and Ford, the two biggest domestic automakers, had larger declines, in part because they cut sales to car-rental companies.


Toyota Motor Corp., Asia's largest automaker, recorded an 11 percent gain in U.S. sales during the quarter and passed GM in worldwide sales for the first time.


Pipas's comments were echoed in some investment analyst reports.


``April is shaping up as a particularly weak month for automotive sales in the U.S. according to our channel checks,'' Lehman Brothers analyst Brian Johnson wrote in a report today.


``Lower consumer confidence, associated in part with the slowdown in the housing market, appears to be taking its toll on light vehicle sales,'' Johnson wrote.
 
RE;Mortgage adjusts every month in CA

I have reported on this property in my neighborhood before. It looks like values are going to slide down again. One particular home in my neighborhood was put on market in September 2006 as a short sale for $575,000. The original purchase price was $585,000 in August 2005. The price was lowered in steps to $510,000. No sale. Finally, this home went to foreclosure. It is now back on market now at $490,000 - a bank owned property.

I can't wait to see the second quarter of 2007 statistics on foreclosures in California.

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Just watched a PBS TV news show about subprime mortgages;
mostly focused on CA.

One gentleman in foreclosure said he felt like a loser, now;
bankers had beeen calling him up quote ''every day'' to refinace, apparently he bought into that, but no more daily calls from bankers.

And another lady in CA had seen mortgage jump from 2,ooo to $4,000 per month; said rate could change [watch this ] ''every month''
Trying to sell, but cant
 
What, John Dessauer worry?

Commentary: Despite dollar's dive, newsletter editor cheerful as ever

By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch
Last Update: 12:01 AM ET Apr 23, 2007

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- A dollar dive, but one international investment letter continues cheerful. As usual.

In the past week, the U.S. dollar reached a two year low against the euro. But John Dessauer of Investor's World isn't worried about the dollar, or anything else either for that matter.

Dessauer was actually bearish short-term on the dollar, very unusually for him, when I last checked in with Investor's World. See Dec 4 column

But in his February issue, he was back to his characteristic dollar triumphalism, jeering at what he calls "the dollar bashers," citing the greenback's performance against the Japanese yen.

Overall, though, the Dollar Index has continued to decline. And as far as I can see, Dessauer has responded by simply ceasing to discuss exchange rates, something I've complained about before.

But, however he makes his investment decisions, Dessauer is doing well right now.

Over the past 12 months, Investor's World is up 15.5% according to the Hulbert Financial Digest, vs. 11.33% for the dividend-reinvested Dow Jones Wilshire 5000. Over the past five years, Investor's World is up 10.94% annualized, vs. 7.71% annualized for the dividend-reinvested Wilshire 5000.

Note that this doesn't always hold true. Over the past 10 years, Dessauer slightly underperformed the stock market, 7.21% annualized vs. 8.73%. Unsurprisingly, given his endemic bullishness, Dessauer didn't handle the 2000-2002 crash very well.

Among other optimistic noises in his April issue, Dessauer predicts that there will be no change in U.S. short-term rates for the next several months. He expects that global economic growth will continue solidly, if not quite at the past year's 5.1% clip and that corporate profit growth will once more show a double-digit increase.

Dessauer also announces that: "We do not have a housing crisis! We are suffering from yet another attack of hype, fear and hysteria. Years ago, Wall Street fell in love with subprime mortgages all $1.45 trillion worth of them. Brokers loved the ease with which such loans could be made, packaged and sold. They loved the high fees and commissions. Now, in an irrational and unnecessary reversal, Wall Street sees subprime mortgages as toxic sludge. Make no mistake: Wall Street's emotional swing from greed to fear is the root cause of today's crisis."

Dessauer argues that real estate activity is "still very healthy," citing eight states that showed double-digit same-price house price gains in 2006.

He also, in a typical emotional aside, observes that, "the critics can moan and groan about imprudent lending to buyers with less than perfect credit or on terms that seem risky now, but the truth is that new mortgage products have opened home ownership opportunities for more people, and that is healthy. Home ownership is the No. 1 wealth-building opportunity for most Americans."

My mean-spirited reaction: So what? What's that got to do with whether or not the loans were imprudent?

But Dessauer is putting his money (and his subscribers') where his mouth is. His current letter contains a detailed and very interesting defense of IndyMac Bancorp Inc.(NDE), the mortgage lender whose stock price almost halved this year.

Dessauer says he's been following IndyMac since the late 1980s and that he is confident that management will do "whatever it takes" to get the stock price back to $50. He notes that insiders are buying shares and concludes: "IndyMac is a buy."

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
What will happen to all those subprime loans that need refinancing?

The following lists the changes to subprime lending standards implemented recently at Countrywide:
  • 100% LTV will be limited to a just 3% of the subprime production compared to 24% in 2006.
  • ARM 100% LTV will be limited to less than 2% of the subprime production compared to 90% in 2006.
  • Subprime Second Liens will be eliminated entirely.
  • No-Low Documentation loans will be limited to less than 2% of the subprime production compared to 35% in 2006.
  • Average LTV for the subprime production will be brought to less than 80% from 85% in 2006.
  • Subprime loans to first time homebuyers will be reduced to 5% from 22% in 2006.
  • Subprime loans, as a percentage of total purchase, will be brought to less than 20% compared to 60% in 2006.
A particularly interesting outcome of these changes lies in the elimination of the Subprime second liens as these were typically used for the 20% “piggyback” of the 80/20 100% LTV products.

If Countrywide is indicative of what the lending industry reaction is to rising defaults on subprime loans, credit has been essentially cut off to these borrowers.

The first time home buyer market will be severely impacted. This end of the spectrum will decline in price the most as demand falls because of decreased credit availability and California will be the hardest hit. We see it now with the astronomical rise in foreclosures. The 20% second mortgage value is eliminated when the property is offered for sale as a bank owned property.
 
Insert 2007...
The Great Depression was a time of economic down turn, which started after the stock market crash on October 29, 1929, known as Black Tuesday. It began in the United States and quickly spread to Europe and every part of the world, with devastating effects in both then industrialized countries and those which exported raw materials. International trade declined sharply, as did personal incomes, tax revenues, prices and profits. Cities all around the world were hit hard, especially those dependent on heavy industry. Construction was virtually halted in many countries. Farming and rural areas suffered as crop prices fell by 40 to 60 percent.[1] Mining and logging areas had perhaps the most striking blow because the demand fell sharply and there were few employment alternatives. The Great Depression ended at different times in different countries; for subsequent history see Home front during World War II. The majority of countries set up relief programs, and most underwent some sort of political upheaval, pushing them to the left or right. Democracy was weakened and on the defensive, as dictators such as Hitler, Stalin and Mussolini made major gains, which helped set the stage for World War II in 1939.
 
Chief Executive Michael W. Perry said "Problem?"

http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2007/04/26/ap3655211.html

Chief Executive Michael W. Perry said he is disappointed in the results, which were short of Indymac's typical performance. He pointed to "challenging conditions" in the mortgage market, marked by sagging home values, a surge in payment defaults, weak prices for mortgage debt and failed mortgage banks.


The proportion of loans in Indymac's portfolio classified as "nonperforming," or doubtful to be repaid, more than tripled.


Indymac said the investors who buy home loans have shied away from riskier mortgage debt because of heightened credit risk. Indymac's profit margin was lower during the quarter because the mortgage bank commanded lower prices for its loans.


While Indymac said it still plans to scale back its lending, the company said it expects to capture some volume lost by lenders that have gone out of business.
You have to grow the top line (revenue) to achieve long term bottom line growth (profits). Scaling back lending means revenue will decline or grow at nominal industry rate, a reduced rate from the heady days.

The lenders that have gone out of business have had problems with subprime loans or risky loans in general. If the volume to be picked up from those exiting the lending market is something other than subprime, it is going to be a real fight for that end of the business because that is the game plan for ALL lenders.

Profitability in the short run (1 year) is more about controlling expenses and accounting issues. Some expenses are beyond control like defaulting loans. If the FED raises interest rates, that also will negatively impact expenses.
 
At least ONE economists agrees with me.Well , O.K. Two (Roubini)...

Swedish economist Stefan Karlsson has predicted the US economy nears recession in 2007, according to an article posted this week in the Mises Institute website.

Karlsson sustains that the imbalances of the US economy should result in a bust this year. Although GDP growth rate is still above previous recessions of 1982 and 1991. Yet there are increasing signs that the worst is yet to come, says the economist currently working in Sweden.

Much of his forecast is based on the fact the housing bubble was financed by so-called subprime mortgages, mortgages to people with a low credit rating.

Subprime mortgages were encouraged greatly by the government, with the Federal Reserve providing a cheap source of credit and with Bush encouraging it as part of the “ownership society” that he envisioned.

But after the Fed was forced to raise interest rates again and the cost of borrowing for the subprime borrowers increased sharply. This means many people will be forced to leave their homes, unable to handle the increased cost of credit.

With construction investment still high and the increase in house supply, there is a high risk of falling prices — which, given the negative savings rate and the record high level of household debt, would imply that consumer spending will have to fall, says Karlsson.

Given residential investments are likely to continue to fall and with consumer spending likely to be weak as well, the one thing that could save the US economy would be business investments.

Business investments are still at a relatively moderate level, but in relation to corporate profits they are in fact historically low.

With the pessimism generated by the decline in profits and the trouble in the housing market, refers the economist, an increasing number of business leaders seem to think that the days of high profits will be over soon.

What about the Federal Reserve? “The knight in shining armor” always saving the day by cutting interest rates. Of course, Ben Bernanke would certainly be willing to provide “liquidity” if he thought a recession was coming.

However, warns Karlsson, the fact that commodity prices continue to soar and the dollar is falling means that Bernanke will have limited scope to cut interest rates, particularly in the aggressive way that Greenspan did after the tech stock bubble burst.

So how is Bernanke going to create the next bubble, the one that will mask the hangover from the housing bubble in the same way that the housing bubble masked the hangover from the tech stock bubble?

Karlsson questions a solution is at hand.
 
Flippers Bubble Pop As Housing Market Cools

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070429/flippers_flip_out.html?.v=2

LAS VEGAS (AP) -- In the rampant real estate speculation of the Las Vegas valley three years ago, people lined up outside Pulte Homes sales offices overnight as if they were waiting for the release of the latest video game console or hot new movie.

Having seen his house in an upscale part of suburban Henderson, Nev. jump $200,000 in value in 18 months, Sam Schwartz felt he couldn't miss any part of the boom.

He spent the night in the parking lot with TV, snacks and drinks, along with about a hundred other people.


Schwartz intended to buy a new home and then quickly sell it within the year -- for a huge profit. Most people waiting were flippers just like him, he said.


"We had seen real evidence of what was possible in this crazy, inflated market, and we just wanted to get a piece of that investment equity," Schwartz said.


But when home prices unexpectedly took a backward step, many investors seeking to cash in quickly were left "upside-down," or owing more on their mortgages than what their homes were worth.


The result was a glut of homes in the marketplace, communities spotted with empty houses and for sale signs -- and a foreclosure rate in Nevada that leads the nation as owners unable to sell became saddled with unbearable debt payments.

In Clark County, which encompasses Las Vegas, one of every 30 homes began the process toward foreclosure last year.


The day Schwartz reserved his home, the sales staff was raising prices $20,000 after every fifth buyer came inside. The $500,000 house he and his wife were eyeing had shot up to $540,000 by the time they sat down. Somehow, it still seemed like a good deal.


"Everybody was thinking, 'Hey it's not the end of the world, because the homes across town are selling for $720,000. We have almost $200,000 in equity in the house and it isn't even built yet,'" Schwartz said.


He and his wife put down $5,000 on a home that would end up costing $560,000 with upgrades.


While the Schwartzes were able to cancel before closing on a property that suddenly was worth only $490,000 -- and recoup their deposit on a legal technicality -- others were less fortunate.


Schwartz, a 44-year-old life coach, said he "narrowly escaped financial disaster." But the effects of the housing crunch would reverberate for years, he said, something he expects to see among the clients he coaches to succeed in their lives and careers.


"There's going to be a lot of depression, a lot of anger. A lot drinking, gambling, and desperate stuff going on."

More than other states hit by the mortgage lending crunch, the high foreclosure rate in Nevada, California and Florida was driven by speculation, said Rick Sharga, vice president of marketing for Realty Trac.


"It was a combustible mix of risky loans and risky real estate deals," he said.


Russ Valone, the chief executive of research firm MarketPointe Realty Advisors, said speculators in San Diego were putting deposits on downtown condo units under construction, assuming they could sell them at a profit when they were finished.


"There were guys out there that were rolling the dice just as if they were going to Las Vegas," Valone said.


When the market slowed, many buyers forfeited their deposits, or let their properties get repossessed by the banks. As a result, the inventory of unoccupied condo units downtown since early 2005 has soared fivefold, he said.


New home builders are slowing down the pace of new projects in Las Vegas and are giving agents commissions of up to 12 percent and up to $100,000 in upgrades such as pools, granite countertops and appliances.


"The speculators completely dried up," said Paul Murad, a real estate observer and author of "Manhattanizing Las Vegas."

"One would have to logically assume that (flippers) are no longer in the market," he said.
 
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