Housing Bubble Bursting?

[Karl]

It's called Residential Housing for a reason. Single family homes NEED a Family NOT investors, Speculators. After you run out of Investors buying from Investors EVENTUALLY you need a FAMILY to occupy that RESIDENTIAL home. OOPPS!! we don't have families NEEDING all these homes?? WOW!! how hard was that to figure out. Investing 101 Supply Demand.

The Mike's of the world made out OK as long as they knew WHEN to get out. But as in everything for every winner there has to be a LOSER & those still holding "Investment" Residential RE are pretty much guranteed to be LOSERS, Now those that got out in time MAY want to look at some Commercial.

Hopefully Mike S. will reconsider leaving the Forum.
I for one hope he stays; he does have MANY thought provoking statements over time.

 

[moh malekpour]

I briefly checked his track record. Nov. 2004 he pontificated on PBS that the dollar vs Euro would "continue to slide" for an additional 3-4 years.

how the dollar is doing vs euro and yen? which one is on plus side?

 

[Randolph Kinney]

The dollar buys 3% more Euros than it used to when the guy wrote his article in 2004.

The yen vs dollar? Here's the first chart making tool I found with associated data It could only go back 120 days. Basically, the dollar has gained roughly 10% on the Yen in the last 120 days.

I have to go back on strike now.

My turn. Roger, the Yen has appreciated against the dollar; it takes less Yen to buy a dollar.

The dollar has lost ground against major currencies, including gold and oil.:new_popcornsmiley:

 

[Randolph Kinney]

What happened to Roger's post?

Very strange, I just replied to Roger's post on the Yen showing the chart and now it is gone. Oh well, maybe it went the way of Mike S.

 

[JSmith43]

how the dollar is doing vs euro and yen? which one is on plus side?

The article started out with Euro info and the implication that the dollar was going down compared to it in the first paragraph. I skimmed down for the economist's prediction. The economist switched to comparisons with the Yuan and other "asian currencies", so I retract my comment.

 

[Randolph Kinney]

The article started out with Euro info and the implication that the dollar was going down compared to it in the first paragraph. I skimmed down for the economist's prediction. The economist switched to comparisons with the Yuan and other "asian currencies", so I retract my comment.

So that is what happened ... retroactive rewrite.

 

[JSmith43]

Very strange, I just replied to Roger's post on the Yen showing the chart and now it is gone. Oh well, maybe it went the way of Mike S.

No, I pulled the trigger too soon on a post I was drafting & am working on about 3 different things. You didn't imagine the chart. :icon_smile: I just took to long making the correction and decided to start over. But now I have to do some work before it gets too late.

I only have time for half-assed posts it seems! I better go back on strike or I'll never get any actual work done. Sorry.

 

[Randolph Kinney]

No, I pulled the trigger too soon on a post I was drafting & am working on about 3 different things. You didn't imagine the chart. :icon_smile: I just took to long making the correction and decided to start over. But now I have to do some work before it gets too late.

I only have time for half-assed posts it seems! I better go back on strike or I'll never get any actual work done. Sorry.

Your phrase "go back on strike or I'll never get any actual work done" is similar to what Mike S. signs off, but his was back to the mines and I ain't time for ....

 

[Randolph Kinney]

Don't fight the FED

Summary taken from Merrill Lynch:

We continue to believe that higher quality stocks are
undervalued relative to lower quality ones, but that might
not matter if the Fed is not going to continue the tightening
cycle, increase equity market volatility, and drive stocks
back toward intrinsic value. Many, including us, have
suggested that the Fed should continue to tighten. We
have pointed to rising inflation expectations, raging
commodity prices, wages beginning to accelerate, and the
continuation of immense credit creation away from the
banking system as reasons the Fed should continue to
tighten.
However, it’s not what the Fed should do that matters, it’s
what they will do. If they are pausing or stopping and
economic growth remains healthy, then that might be good
combination for lower quality issues.​

We have pointed out many times that successful

momentum investing has little to do with the “buy”
decision, but rather has much more to do with the “sell”
decision. Thus, it is critical to identify factors that might
lead to a “sell” decision.
Again, we choose to use the slope of the yield curve. If the
yield curve continues to steepen, then it suggests that
expectations of nominal growth are increasing. That
would be good for our lower quality shift. However, if the
yield curve flattens or inverts, that might be a warning
signal. The combination of a flattening yield curve and
deterioration in the factors previously mentioned would
suggest that a reversal to higher quality issues might be
appropriate.​

Speculation is going to drive the market until it is very clear that the FED will not tolerate "irrational exuberance" as it once before demonstrated.

 

[Austin]

Sounds Like A Racketeering Operation To Me

In reference to Randolph's above post and the general crux of many others, I don't think many people discern what is going on here. It is the same phenomena driving both the real estate, commodity and stock market, that is they are playing musical chairs with the markets as opposed to creating product.
Same thing ENRON did but on a much grander scale. I can't figure out why people haven't figured this out yet in light of the market bust of the 90's. It is all a Ponzi scheme to make money without adding any value to the system. Reminds me of the analogy of the wolf. The American Indians used to take a sharp knife with a double edge blade and coat it with salt. They would then stick the knife up in the ground with the blade sticking up. The wolf would lick the salt on the blade and cut his tongue. The more he licks the more he bleeds and the better it taste. The better it taste the faster the wolf licks until he drops dead after consuming his blood supply. Me thinks we are about to run out of blood.