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Housing Bubble Bursting?

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That is why I prefer long-term investing to day trading... the same applies to real estate markets... if you have something that will produce income, then it is much more solid than something that will not.
 
Steve Owen said:
That is why I prefer long-term investing to day trading... the same applies to real estate markets... if you have something that will produce income, then it is much more solid than something that will not.

Ditto!!!!!!!
 
When GRM and PE ratios all begin to go in the same direction - you have a problem with valuing the income. The income itself becomes less and less durable.
 
Old Auctioneers Trick

When I was a big time real estate auctioneer here is a little trick that works every time. The buyers want to keep the bidding as low as possible so they play games of not bidding. When I would start a sale and no one would give an opening bid I would say: "Ok, sale is over, I will just put a price on it and sell it privately." That always does it, the bidding immediately starts. All you have to do is convince the buyers that there is a shortage of the product or it is not available, the price is going up and they can't resist. Buy up all of the milk and declare a milk shortage, then sell milk at double the price. Beats working.
Same in the appraisal business. Tell everybody you are six months behind and when a mortgage company calls say cash up front or I don't leave the office. They say can't do that and I say good, I don't have time anyway. They call back and say OK, go for it. They will pay at the door. It is easy to make money when you don't need it and impossible when you do need it.
The market is kind of like a crowd at a football game. The home team crowd is really wild until the other team makes a TD, then they die. As soon as the home team makes a good play the mood changes. That is where the media comes into play in markets. Put a pundit on TV and predict the market will tank and the market tanks. You buy it up when it is down, then send another lackey on TV and say the market will smoke, prices go up and you sell. Same theory. Like taking candy from a baby. It is a zero sum game. A loser is born every minute. For every winner there is a sea of stupid losers. Problem is that in our business the sub prime losers don't lose, the tax payers do. That is why I don't invest in equity markets, it is a rigged scam. I keep mine under the mattress where it is safe.
 
I want to have post #1,000 on the bubble thread.
 
So Bucks is predicting the thread will get to #1000 before the bubble bursts or the thread dies of old age. I think I'm going to start a CA thread that examines how CA contributed to the current "bubble" situation. Any prognostications, oh wise one from the far east, Junior Samples?
 
"I think I'm going to start a CA thread that examines how CA contributed to the current "bubble" situation. "

No need the major claim is that CA folks are buying in NV, AZ, New Mexico, FL, Arkansa, Texas, Washington. So in other words IF it wasn't for CA they'd be no Bubble to burst.

In another thread B Bucks said it best, He STUDIED an area knew it well so was able to buy & sell at a profit. What a great concept STUDY an area before buying.

Many current buyers have left out that idea.
 
Sorry Karl, I should have wriiten it out. CA=Cost Approach. If we could combine a CA thread with the Bubble, it'll be the thread to end all threads.
 
Gold futures tap $700 for first time in nearly 26 years

By Myra P. Saefong
Last Update: 11:33 AM ET May 9, 2006





SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures tapped the $700-an-ounce level Tuesday for the first time since October 1980, with the June contract last up $19.90 at $699.80. "It is not the fact that gold is close to breaking above $700 that has surprised us, but rather the pace at which it is expanding," said Matthew Parry, an economist at Moody's Economy.com. He emphasized, however, that his company "does not ... envisage the current bull-run having much further to go once $700 has been broken." Assuming the recent escalation of geopolitical tensions subsides going forward, and global inflation comes under control, the price of gold should return to negative territory, falling back below $600 in 2007...."
greendot.gif


.............................................

I believe the markets are playing the FED cycle. It becomes a self fulfilling prophesy; the FED will have to tighten later to send the signal that it is serious about inflation.

Meanwhile, you have the likes of Merrill Lynch advising people to speculate; buy the lower quality securities.:new_popcornsmiley:
 
Dollar broadly lower ahead of Fed

Dollar broadly lower ahead of Fed
Retreat on eve of rate decision; Treasury report also in focus


By Wanfeng Zhou, MarketWatch
Last Update: 4:34 PM ET May 9, 2006


NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The dollar fell to a fresh eight-month low against Japan's yen and hovered around a one-year low against the euro Tuesday, reflecting growing market expectations that the Federal Reserve would pause after raising interest rates for a 16th consecutive time on Wednesday.

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B22D03DF3%2DF8CD%2D40F2%2DA8C3%2D10C6E801E904%7D&
 
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