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Housing Bubble Bursting?

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moh malekpour said:
there are two different calculations: Toyota is a japanese company but functions in USA. Some of its profit goes to USA and it is USA GDP because it is inside USA and some of it goes to Japan and it is Japan GNP because it is out of Japan. We don't count Japan's profit as ours, we count our own profit.

Bean counters can do whatever they want. Think of GDP as product produced on USA soil. That would include the calculated profit of Japanese operations on USA soil.:shrug:

If you are trying to measure how productive the USA is as a place to live and do business, GDP tries to measure that aspect.
 
""That particular American sold his home and moved back into rental housing, and, yes, it would take $280,000 for him to become an owner once again. However, he now has approx: 4 Toyota Camry's worth of gain in the bank.""

Sorry BUT that is what three of our Appraisers here did & your illustration is close to the numbers, they got. (The rent they paid to the Investors that bought their homes was LESS than thier Mortgage Payment Plus no Maintainance cost for 1+ years, ). HOWEVER due to ----------Thinking of what word to use that won't upset (Some) people BUT I have NO choice The DROP in the Market here in Pinal County AZ they have purchased new homes superior to those they sold for less. So now they have superior homes & a couple Toyota's in the Bank. IF they had waited until next year I believe they'd have 5/6 Toyota's in the Bank.

I paid a lot of money to learn words like Functional Obsolesence Hypothetical Conditions, Extra Ordinary Assumptions, Etc Etc But still the word with most irritation is IF.
 
For the people who want to delve into the mechanics of income and expense calculation on a national level, one can go to Wikipedia:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_domestic_product for GDP and:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_national_product for GNP.

I will make a point concerning trade. It use to matter if a country was running a significant trade deficit over a extended period of time, when international accounts were settled in gold. A country tied its currency directly to gold by the exchange rate you could redeem a quantity of gold for that currency. The country running a negative trade balance would adjust the exchange rate for its currency (depreciating) to redeem less gold for more currency to break even on trade. If no exchange rate adjustment was made, that country ran out of gold and could no longer trade.

Today, the world trading is settled with currency only and is principally conducted in dollars. The U.S. is the largest debtor country in the world today and its debt is growing and has been growing since the 1960s. Way back then, the national debt was financed from domestic savings and we were running a positive trade balance, on the gold standard. Today, about half the national debt is financed by foreign savings and that is mirrored in our trade deficit. If we were still tied to the gold standard, this country would have been bankrupt long time ago.

It is strange how people and the media view inflation. When assets go up in value (IE. stocks, houses, etc.), people view that as appreciation in value, instead of asset inflation. Asset inflation leads to real inflation when there is a demand for currency or credit or the other way round. Easy credit and excess currency leads to real inflation; assets, commodities, wages, etc. It is called the velocity of money. It can be found also in Wikipedia:http://encyclopedia.thefreedictionary.com/Velocity+of+money

Wikipedia mentions GDP however, I was taught it is related to GNP as follows:

GNP = PRICE X QUANTITY (price of goods and services, quantity of goods and services)

Theoretically then:

M*V = P*Q where M = money supply, V = the velocity of money transacted, P*Q = GNP.

By inspection of the above formula, if GNP is growing, it is because the velocity of money has speeded up or the money supply has been increased. Or looking at it another way, if the quantity output remains the same, the price went up for the goods and services in order for GNP to grow. This all relates to productivity, inflation and FED policy.

Anyway, we are all helpless, even if we understand economics because the government sets the policy for spending and credit creation. We can only react to those changes.
 
Just remember to look on the metal plate on the Toyota to verify it was "assembled" in the USA. Buy that model, if you wish to enhance USA GDP totals and steer clear of Made in Japan:icon_smile:
 
More spin from the NAR

Here's some more

http://www.realtor.org/RMODaily.nsf/pages/News2006050901?OpenDocument

But, it is true that rates are still low by historical standards. Some of you newer folks may not realize it, but if inflation is at 3 percent per year, anything under 7 percent would probably be considered a pretty low rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage.

And... seems like the bust didn't really pop... it just relocated as a boom somewhere else.

http://www.realtor.org/RMODaily.nsf/pages/News2006051104?OpenDocument

the national median home price, which was $218,000 in March
Man, I'm glad I live in an affordable part of the country.
 
Maybe not for long.

Steve Owen said:
Man, I'm glad I live in an affordable part of the country.
Housing here in Central Florida was some of the most affordable 2 years ago. (It may be again in another couple of years.)
 
Roger if you still have your “Ogg the caveman and the gold standard” cached where you can easily post it, would you please? I tried a search and couldn’t find it. It’s one of the best I’ve ever read on the subject and many here will find it enlightening and entertaining, while hopefully a few of our close minded brethren will find it irritating. :)
 
Interesting post Pam.

On the ground in Florida, which, like California and Washington, D.C., has posted double-digit sales declines in the past months, the mood is souring as fast as Silicon Valley in March, 2000.
"The mortgage market today is bigger than the government bond market; housing is valued at double the level of household equities on the household balance sheet,"
Across the United States, there are 3.5 million single-family homes and condo units up for sale, a record, and up 30% from a year ago.
:new_popcornsmiley:
 
but if inflation is at 3 percent per year,

If the Government allowed the appropriate items to be used in that "basket" of goods used to estimate inflation, namely gasoline, insurance, and medical expenses, inflation would be well over 5%

Pam - if you noticed, Canadian money is near parity with the U. S. Dollar....it was about 3 Canadian to 2 American dollars a very few years ago.

One major reason Oil is $70/bbl is that oil is traded in dollars..Europe has not been hit near as hard since, compared to Dollars, the Euro has gained strength.
 
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