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Housing Bubble Bursting?

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Lenders take notice as defaults are rising

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/metro/20060515-9999-1n15default.html


Homeowners feel pinch of adjustable-rate loans

By Emmet Pierce and David Washburn
UNION-TRIBUNE STAFF WRITERS
May 15, 2006

A recent spike in default notices may be a sign that some homeowners are struggling to pay the adjustable-rate mortgages that now dominate lending in San Diego County's residential real estate market, analysts warn.

Notices of default – the first step toward mortgage foreclosure – jumped 60 percent in the San Diego region in the first three months of this year, compared with the first quarter of last year, DataQuick Information Systems reported.

In contrast, Nicolas Retsinas of Harvard's Center for Joint Housing Studies says the increase in default activity coming during a time of economic growth is a sign that many adjustable-rate mortgages, or ARMs, carry too much risk for borrowers.

The trend toward highly leveraged loans began when middle-wage consumers in escalating housing markets no longer could qualify for fixed, 30-year mortgages, Geisen said. Nearly three-quarters of all home loans made in the county last year were ARMs.

“We have more REOs now than we have in the past three years,” Weichelt said. Until recently, “there was no need for the foreclosure process; appreciation was so strong. People were able to refinance or sell the property and get a fresh start. Now, because of limited appreciation and some stagnation in the market, that is just not available.”
 
Hottest U.S. housing markets cooling

Hottest U.S. housing markets cooling
Sales plunge more than 15% in five leading states

By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch
Last Update: 4:30 PM ET May 15, 2006

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Existing home sales are down more than 15% in five states that have had the hottest housing markets, the National Association of Realtors said Monday.

Sales have dropped 22.2% year-over-year in Arizona, 19.2% in California, 18.2% in the District of Columbia, 15.7% in Florida and 15% in Nevada, the real estate group said.
 
Nearly three-quarters of all home loans made in the county last year were ARMs.



That is an amazing stat.


TC
 
With 75% of loans being ARM type for the nation as a whole last year, one may become acquainted with the idea that even if a very small fraction of borrowers with payment shock over the next 24 months do get behind in their payments, that is going to be one giant problem.

It is going to be the "slow bleed" of home owners; rising gas prices, rising mortgage payments, rising medical cost, rising property taxes, ... rising whatever else they may use or consume.
 
I believe the article said "county" not country. (San Diego) It doesn't matter, the bubble is going to get us all in the end no matter what we do. :-)
 
Randolph Kinney said:
With 75% of loans being ARM type for the nation as a whole last year, one may become acquainted with the idea that even if a very small fraction of borrowers with payment shock over the next 24 months do get behind in their payments, that is going to be one giant problem.

It is going to be the "slow bleed" of home owners; rising gas prices, rising mortgage payments, rising medical cost, rising property taxes, ... rising whatever else they may use or consume.

More froth, please.
 
567 and counting.:new_all_coholic:
 
Bobby Bucks said:
I believe the article said "county" not country. (San Diego) It doesn't matter, the bubble is going to get us all in the end no matter what we do. :-)

Yeah, I caught that too, still pretty high. My guess is that ARMs are popular in the hot markets. Haven't seen one around my market it years.


TC
 
TC, not just hot markets, remember that MB are paid on commission and ARMS pay higher fees than fixed rate. Why? Rates may go up, borrowers score may change, 9/12/06 may happen. ARMS are lenders selling short, betting that the borrower can't REFI and if they can, they make new fees, so win win. So what do you think the average used car salesman MB is pushing? The Volvo wagon Bucks has or the shiny new 'vette?
 
I agree, Mike, my cousin is a MB in Atlanta, he loves to push ARMs, hoping he sees them again in a few years. ARMs are great if you are only in an area for a few years, but like I said, I rarely see them in my market.

TC
 
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