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Housing Bubble Bursting?

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National City Mortgage Mumbo Jumbo CYA report

Edd,

I have no idea what that report was trying to convey other than a penumbra of pointless minutia to cover their you know what.

I just turned down an appraisal request for them in a market sector RIPE for correction OFF CAMPUS HOUSING.
 
Randolph Kinney said:
"Unfortunately as we feared, the soft-landing scenario does not appear to be unfolding as many had hoped," wrote JMP Securities analyst Alex Barron in a recent note. "It may not be until next year that the housing market finds a bottom."

This statement, IMHO, is awfully optomistic.There is an oversupply in many major markets already, and we have yet to feel the full impact of rate adjustments, which, of course, will increase supply; sometimes by will, and in other cases by force.

It took a couple of years last time around; it is likely to do the same or worse this time around.
 
David Wimpelberg said:
This statement, IMHO, is awfully optomistic.There is an oversupply in many major markets already, and we have yet to feel the full impact of rate adjustments, which, of course, will increase supply; sometimes by will, and in other cases by force.

It took a couple of years last time around; it is likely to do the same or worse this time around.
David, I don't disagree with you. It is interesting to note what is being published about the housing market. I have read research reports that say it takes about 3 years for the housing market to adjust to mortgage interest rate changes and employment changes. Some markets react more swiftly than others to economic changes. Other markets react more violently than others to economic changes.
 
City National - National City - stock down $7.71 today

I don't know if this is the same company or not, but thought it was interesting enough to mention here .....

stock down $7.71 today ....
 
"But, come on Mike, you swim against the stream on here in most of your posts and wear it like a badge of honor. Most of us don't agree that your choice is appropriate for us and your methods of expression are very close to proselytizing. You appear to be on a crusade, and your not getting agreement or even appreciation for it."

That was good Edd...I had to look it up..."proselytizing"...never heard it before!

The above sentiments are thoughtful...though not entirely accurate. I do appear to swim against the stream lately...especially when it comes to housing bubble debates. I find this ironic considering most mainstream experts (outside this Forum) don't subscribe to a looming catastrophe in the housing markets. But here the theory is (and always has been) all the rage. Guess I should just pack it up...I'm outnumbered.

Moreover, I AM getting agreement & appreciation for my viewpoints. It just so happens most of the people I hear from contact me via private message, and nearly all of them say the same thing..."they rarely posts...mostly read, and don't want to contribute because, of the way some Forumites conduct themselves."

I've also received phone calls (unsolicited), and two letters to date. I've been contacted via private message from those wanting to know what I did to escape (1st) appraising for mortgage lending purposes, and (2nd) how I left appraising behind altogether & increased my income. I've been contacted with enough frequency, and asked to share...that I wrote down my response in Publisher so I could just copy & send it easily via Private Email.

Yet others do agree with me publically, and they're attacked with almost equal frequency. One PM'd me recently that they're noticing they're "getting the cold shoulder lately."
______________________________________________________________

I wish we'd all just stick to the debate rather than opening up an all you can eat buffet of character assassination.

"Whether you personally win or lose has nothing to do with the larger question under discussion here. I realize you struggle with this, but it really is not all about you. Notice the topic of this thread is not "Is Mike's world and everyone who lives in it coming to an end?", and the only reason we keep ending up hearing about you is because you keep injecting yourself into it. Would you believe that not everyone cares about what you say you're doing? Go figure."

No George...it's not all about me. It's all "80% drop in housing prices lasting for a decade or more."

So lets quit making it about me, and lets get back to debate. You're not the only one that knows about "your market" and there's plenty of experts out there that disagree with your outlandish viewpoints & wild predictions of the past regarding that particular market.

You've given examples and so have I, and I must say, you're remarkably thin skinned with those who'd dare disagree with you.

-Mike
 
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City National

(CYN) $7.71 down today - not National City (CCN)

City National was down today (Based on San Fransico) - Banks is projecting slower than expected deposit growth .....

I wonder if 0% financing here is here to stay .....

I was talking to a guy on the street about real estate a week or two ago ....

He said some people are buying real estate with 0% interest for four years ....

We better be careful with auctioning real estate and make sure we know the "real transaction" and reserves they are taking .....

Fed ...... up a half? ....... boy, if he goes to half ..... in the face of shaky economics right now ..... its going to hurt ....

that inside the core inflation and inside the beltway data brokers must be missing the outer core effects of inflation ..... the dumb core .... poor man's inflation is a lot higher than rich man's inflation .....

if you got credit, inflation is lower, if you don't inflation is very high ...
 
"Fed ...... up a half? ....... boy, if he goes to half ..... in the face of shaky economics right now ..... its going to hurt ...."

I doubt seriously they'll raise a half although nothing the Fed does anymore surprises me.

I think they've already raised rates too far, but I can remember saying the same thing back in '99' when Greenspan & the Fed had just raised rates yet again (and we all know what happened then).

I think we're flirting with Recession now...another 1/4 point and it's an almost certainty.

By-the-way...doesn't it seem like all the inflation pressures are coming from abroad? Would further rate hike have any affect on how much oil China & India consume?

-Mike
 
Mike Simpson said:
I find this ironic considering most mainstream experts (outside this Forum) don't subscribe to a looming catastrophe in the housing markets.

Hmmm... and who might those mainstream experts be?

I'm don't think singing the blues is particularly productive and I don't claim to be mainstream nor do I aspire to be, but I read articles weekly that confirm what I am seeing in the markets I work in. Foreclosures at an all time high, which is completely unprecedented when money is available in an economic time that is otherwise good. The housing market is overinflated. Appraisers, agents and lenders are feeling increasing pressure to make deals work, in spite of facts that tell them the deal is not sound. Looks dismal and I cxan't see anything of promise in it.

Do the mainstream experts interpret those facts differently and see them as indicia of healthy housing markets or am I not seeing the bigger picture?

HELP!

Point me to your facts that say we are not approaching, or past, the apex of the inevitable cycles that real estate seems ever destined to repeat. This time it seems the high is almost unbelievably high, which predicts a crash bigger than anything we've seen yet.
 
Mike Simpson said:
"Fed ...... up a half? ....... boy, if he goes to half ..... in the face of shaky economics right now ..... its going to hurt ...."

I doubt seriously they'll raise a half although nothing the Fed does anymore surprises me.

I think they've already raised rates too far, but I can remember saying the same thing back in '99' when Greenspan & the Fed had just raised rates yet again (and we all know what happened then).

I think we're flirting with Recession now...another 1/4 point and it's an almost certainty.

By-the-way...doesn't it seem like all the inflation pressures are coming from abroad? Would further rate hike have any affect on how much oil China & India consume?

-Mike
Inflation is reflected in the foreign exchange value of the dollar. It is a gobal market Mike.
 
Oil Period

Mike Simpson said:
By-the-way...doesn't it seem like all the inflation pressures are coming from abroad? Would further rate hike have any affect on how much oil China & India consume?-Mike

Everything I am hearing is that China and other emerging markets may slowdown, but that the rates of growth in these economies will continue to have a net increase on demand for oil consumption.

Japan is poised for a slowdown and is raising rates to headoff any chance of inflation - even after 15 years of deflation.

Its probably in the best interests gloablly to think of slowing down the larger economies like the US and Japan to keep the pressure off oil consumption .... we are tapped out at 85 million barrels per (according to to Boone Pickens) - and he sees real demand at about 86 million barrels per day by then end of the year .... yet the world can not pull it out any faster (so says Pickens) ....

natural gas and other forms of energy are going to need to be tapped here in this country and that will take time ... we have to slow down our economy because of OIL PERIOD.
 
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