"Herein lies my problem with the bubble bandwagon. They overeach in their attempt to make bubble news."
I've stated all along; that Bubblist would begin getting desperate for bad news & start making mountains out of mole hills as soon as the markets began to show even remote signs of slowing. After all, the longer they carry on without a bubble materializing...the more ridiculous they begin to look (go back in the archives to 2002 & read some of the nonsense predicted back then).
"...but most every house purchased in Palm Bay in the summer of 2005 with less than 10% down is undoubtedly upside down as are many who refinanced at that time."
What bothers me about comments like this is the assumption someone knows everyone's finances & the conditions of every sale and every refinance. Quite simply...that's a blanket statement that leaves a hole big enough to drive a truck through.
"The market for houses priced over $500,000 is still quite good here in Central Florida, but anything below $500,000 is a tough sale. That is why the median price continues to rise, the bottom end of the market is in trouble."
The inverse is true here in the Western WA.
"HELP Mike. Your clue is too cryptic. I would like to find something applicable to my market in the resources you cite. It must be some kind of technique that I can apply."
You know I've dropped enough hints over time...even in this thread as to where I get my information. I was about to launch into another long list of information from which I draw my conclusions, but realized; here it is 2006 & we're still rehashing the SOS. I've gotten nowhere...convinced not one Bubble Head...I've not had my views changed, and this all takes up my valuable time.
So I've got to ask...what's in it for me?
People usually pay me for my insights.
But..what the hell;
Get familiar with your States Chief Demographer & learn everything you can about their estimates & projections
How's the health of your job market in your region in relation to population growth estimates?
Rate of population growth projections
Employment Growth (historic & projected)
Pay attention to the consumer confidence series
Revolving consumer debt
Most Appraisers don't pay enough attention to building permits vs. population growth (housing demand)
Track Permit Activity (past & present)
New & active listings coming to market (historical & current)...go back 5 years if you have the data (if not...begin tracking this data in a spreadsheet yourself)
Marketing times (historical & current)...go back 5 years
Affordability Issue (Index & 1st Time Affordability Index)
There's some information that should get you stared. You'll have to gather the data, correlate the data, and reconcile the data yourself. That's just off the top of my head, but it's a start.
Here's the conclusions that were drawn in Feb 2005--regarding the region in which I reside--based on analysis of the above data (it's pretty damn accurate...hindsight being 20/20);
* Housing affordability is becoming an increasing issue. Homes valued over $500,000 in this region are taking longer to sale...the inverse of what another poster had written regarding their region.
* Continue to see smaller new construction product to be brought to market. Some builders in this region are builder bigger & bigger homes...consequently...they're sitting on the market
* Sales velocities will start to taper in '05.
* Price escalation will decline to an average of 5% (this predication was way under what actually took place in '05).
* Upper end new single family sales could decline (we're seeing that now in this region).
* The resale market will further dominate.
* Mortgage rates will increase steadily (they have...though I've thought they'd increase since 2003)
* Expect Record Foreclosures
* Urban Development will continue to grow
* There is NO Housing Bubble!