Housing Bubble?

[J Grant]

E

I don't know what will happen with insurance impact on value but it is probably good for areas without natural disasters and bad for places with risk of natural disasters. Look at the outer banks properties. Dirt cheap ocean front properties.

Every place is more at risk of natural disasters these days - climate change is affecting storm and wildfire patterns whether people deny it or not. The insurance agencies see it, and that is why they are no longer writing policies in a number of areas. Of course, some areas low lying coastal will continue to be more vulnerable as they have always been,

Imo the insurance crisis might get so bad the govt might have to UW some policies - omg the deep state evil gubmint !!

 

[Joe Flacco]

E

Every place is more at risk of natural disasters these days - climate change is affecting storm and wildfire patterns whether people deny it or not. The insurance agencies see it, and that is why they are no longer writing policies in a number of areas. Of course, some areas low lying coastal will continue to be more vulnerable as they have always been,

Imo the insurance crisis might get so bad the govt might have to UW some policies - omg the deep state evil gubmint !!

Government should definitely not underwrite insurance for properties at risk of disasters. Market will sort itself out.

 

[J Grant]

Government should definitely not underwrite insurance for properties at risk of disasters. Market will sort itself out.

Perhaps
Idk the answer. If insurance becomes unaffordable, is that because the insurance companies really can not afford to pay the claims, or they simply feel it is not profitable enough?

Govt programs exist because they do not have the same profit margin goal as private corporations and businesses do.

PS - some state of local govts already do UW. The state of Florida offers Citizens ( called the insurer of last resort ), which covers homes or condos that otherwise can not obtain insurance. IT is uw more and more properties at time goes on

An owner with no mortgage is not required to have insurance but some want it anyway.

 

[Joe Flacco]

What they should do is allow mortgage on land value only if property is not insurable. How the market reacts to that is up to the market.

 

[bnmappraisal]

US housing market is mirroring 2008 bubble—real estate analyst

The number of newly built, ready-to-move-in homes for sale sitting vacant on the market has exploded in the South this year.

www.newsweek.com

Agree? I’m still on the fence. In my market there’s more than a few with DOM in the months but still no signs of prices falling back to pre-pandemic levels, never mind a bust,

Didn't read it all nor the full thread, but I will say this
It's not like 2008 and that's a good thing
It's still (generally speaking) a mess out there
But overall??? "stable"

 

[CGinMN]

The quoted analyst in the article, Nick Gerli, has been predicting housing collapse for at least 3 years. I don't think any housing economists take him seriously.

Reventure Consulting

Reventure Consulting teaches home buyers and real estate investors how to use data to make smarter investment decisions. By combining data from a variety of sources - including the US Census, BLS, Zillow, and Apartments.com - Reventure has developed a suite of analytics to home buyers and real...

www.youtube.com

 

[Joe Flacco]

The quoted analyst in the article, Nick Gerli, has been predicting housing collapse for at least 3 years. I don't think any housing economists take him seriously.

Reventure Consulting

Reventure Consulting teaches home buyers and real estate investors how to use data to make smarter investment decisions. By combining data from a variety of sources - including the US Census, BLS, Zillow, and Apartments.com - Reventure has developed a suite of analytics to home buyers and real...

www.youtube.com

Lol they quoted a Youtube permabear

To be fair, all the economists and analysts like Ivy Zelman were wrong.

 

[Non Sequitur]

Didn't read it all nor the full thread, but I will say this
It's not like 2008 and that's a good thing
It's still (generally speaking) a mess out there
But overall??? "stable"

In 2008 strategic defaults were the rage, not necessarily affordability issues. This time affordability due to insurance may be the reason a housing bust occurs. It's a long article, but it makes the point that even borrowers locked in at pandemic low interest rates didn't budget for ever increasing insurance rates.

 

[Alsie35]

North Texas is still fairly strong, L/S ratios are getting a bit wider (maybe ~ 1-2%), and DOM crept up last January, but is holding fairly steady currently. New home inventory in D/FW has started to drop just a bit after a peak in October.

View attachment 94971

South Texas also is going fairly strong. For us, 2024 was as good as 2023, bottom-line wise. About 40% as good as 2020 or 2021. Which is PLENTY good enough. As far as foreclosures go, we get plenty of that business via 2055s, so if that goes up, unless the nature of the business changes, we should still be OK. In any event, the market will get stronger in the near future as the economy does under #47!

 

[Charles West]

The insurance crisis has nothing to do with some imaginary climate crisis, much to the chagrin of the Progressive movement, but everything to do with people wanting to live on the beach and deep in the forests in inappropriate construction. That's it in a nutshell.