Housing Bubble?

[CGinMN]

Lol they quoted a Youtube permabear

To be fair, all the economists and analysts like Ivy Zelman were wrong.

At the time when she made her predictions the news media threw a lot of praise on her, but they also pointed out most analysts didn’t agree. I didn’t think her basis for the prediction was very strong.

I do see some headwinds, but in the near term I think it is mostly pockets and nationally things will be ok. I think we are in a really different place with tech, the economy, stock market, and geopolitics by the end of Trump’s term. Could be worse or could be better. That is probably not much of a predication.

 

[TerryRohrer]

San Francisco House Prices Drop Back to 2019, Condo Prices to 2015, as Tech Jobs in the City & Silicon Valley Evaporate after Drunken Hiring Binge | Wolf Street

 

[Fernando]

View attachment 94987

San Francisco House Prices Drop Back to 2019, Condo Prices to 2015, as Tech Jobs in the City & Silicon Valley Evaporate after Drunken Hiring Binge | Wolf Street

Oddly San Francisco didn't increase but neighboring cities and towns have increased about 15% since 2019.

 

[TerryRohrer]

Lennar said the revenue drop was primarily due to a 7% decline in the number of home deliveries to 22,206 and a 2.5% fall in the average sale price of homes delivered, which was $430,000. In addition, new orders declined 3% to 16,895 homes, and the dollar value of new orders dipped 1% to $7.18 billion.

'Affordability Limitations' Negatively Impacted Performance​

Home Builder Lennar Stock Falls as High Mortgage Rates Hurt Results

Lennar blamed high borrowing costs for its weaker-than-expected quarterly results and outlook.

www.investopedia.com

 

[Surf Cat]

I agree, but are current market conditions normal? While inventory is moving in my market it’s slow and I doubt could handle more new spec builds. What’s missing for the spec market is the trade up buyers, they aren’t buying right now.

No way the buyer's looking for their up leg property are going to let go of their 3% loans. The interest rate is king (sorry Fernando). That and high inflation is what's gumming up the market. Also, many people I know with these low rates are taking advantage of new zoning laws allowing ADU's. The potential for generating additional rental income, raising their property value, or providing a space for a family member is a no brainer.

So, IMO, the current market conditions are not normal.... Something's got to give though....I mean, how much higher can a property that should be worth $600K, which is currently valued at over a million go?

I am appraising 6 new construction - mix of 3 and 2 bed homes from 840 -1,100 SF. in a small rural town. They have built 4 and sold them all for $135,000 plus minus, 840 SF.

That's amazing.....This is the way it should be. You couldn't even build that here in Cali for a $135K.

 

[shrubberyvaluation]

No way the buyer's looking for their up leg property are going to let go of their 3% loans. The interest rate is king (sorry Fernando). That and high inflation is what's gumming up the market. Also, many people I know with these low rates are taking advantage of new zoning laws allowing ADU's. The potential for generating additional rental income, raising their property value, or providing a space for a family member is a no brainer.

So, IMO, the current market conditions are not normal.... Something's got to give though....I mean, how much higher can a property that should be worth $600K, which is currently valued at over a million go?

That's amazing.....This is the way it should be. You couldn't even build that here in Cali for a $135K.

Last New Construction I did ~7500 SF lots went for $400k-450k

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

.This is the way it should be.

DOM is 30-40 days. Cars are the same. No farmer is going to willingly pay $90,000 for a pickup. They will rebuild an older truck first. Working people in the Cherokee nation are making $50k a year on average. They cannot afford a $300,000 home. But give them a $150k house and they will jump on it fast.

 

[TerryRohrer]

DOM is 30-40 days. Cars are the same. No farmer is going to willingly pay $90,000 for a pickup. They will rebuild an older truck first. Working people in the Cherokee nation are making $50k a year on average. They cannot afford a $300,000 home. But give them a $150k house and they will jump on it fast.

There is no actual housing crisis/shortage. There are just too few Americans who understand the actual difference between want and need, and who don't think it is a fundamental human right that someone else pay for the former.

 

[Fernando]

There is no actual housing crisis/shortage. There are just too few Americans who understand the actual difference between want and need, and who don't think it is a fundamental human right that someone else pay for the former.

People don't have right to live in certain areas if they can't afford it. They can live further away where homes are cheaper or in cheaper (low income) areas.
People feel privileged that's why high demand areas have higher rents and there's rent control.