Housing is Unaffordable for Young People

[Fernando]

Lol are you high right now. Or are you referring to the 20 years preceding the COVID and after era? Things really started cooking at money printer go brrrrr.

There was a period when the FED wanted to increase inflation but couldn't. FED was worried about deflation. I soon we forget.
For decades, my CD rates were so low. Past few years, higher rates, nice.

 

[timd354]

I said 60's. And then somebody else brought up the 70's. And the stagflation of the 70's occurred following the "roaring" economy of the 50's and 60's.

If the 70's 4% GDP growth rate is stagnant, then what is the 2% we've had for the last 15 years?

Flacco, you suffer from recency bias and the disease of thinking that things are worse for your generation than they were in the past. Nominal GDP growth means nothing as the nominal GDP growth in the 1970's was juiced by inflation. Try looking at real GDP growth, which has actully been remarkably consistent over each decade since1950 with the 1960's having the best run without a serious recession. WhielAlso note that volatility has been much reduced since 2010 with the exception of around the COVID pandmic, thus while the highs since 2010 have not been as high as the growth in some prior periods, the lows, have not been nearly as low (with the excpetion of the COVID low and subsequent recovery). Additionally, the somewhat higher (but more volatile) overall growth in real GDP in the the 3 in the decades after WWII was juiced by population growth (i.e., thebbay boom) and per capita real GDP growth is fairly similar to the rate in the 1950's and 1970's - it was higher during the 1960's, but the boom times of the 1960's were fed in large part by a huge expansion of the federal government and the escalation of the Vietnam war and the boom times of the 1960's were followed by a severe hangover in the 1970's

 

[Joe Flacco]

Flacco, you suffer from recency bias and the disease of thinking that things are worse for your generation than they were in the past. Nominal GDP growth means nothing as the nominal GDP growth in the 1970's was juiced by inflation. Try looking at real GDP growth, which has actully been remarkably consistent over each decade since1950 with the 1960's having the best run without a serious recession. WhielAlso note that volatility has been much reduced since 2010 with the exception of around the COVID pandmic, thus while the highs since 2010 have not been as high as the growth in some prior periods, the lows, have not been nearly as low (with the excpetion of the COVID low and subsequent recovery). Additionally, the somewhat higher (but more volatile) overall growth in real GDP in the the 3 in the decades after WWII was juiced by population growth (i.e., thebbay boom) and per capita real GDP growth is fairly similar to the rate in the 1950's and 1970's - it was higher during the 1960's, but the boom times of the 1960's were fed in large part by a huge expansion of the federal government and the escalation of the Vietnam war and the boom times of the 1960's were followed by a severe hangover in the 1970's


View attachment 97782

That thing looks almost exactly the same as what I posted before.

Each decade looks remarkably consistent to you? You need to look at little bit closer.

 

[Joe Flacco]

That one year of 8.5% REAL GDP growth during the 50's is equivalent to four years of growth during the 2010's.

There is nothing consistent from decade to decade shown in the Real GDP.

 

[Joe Flacco]

Look at that thing. 8.5% followed by 8%. Those two years is more Real GDP growth compared to the whole 2010's.

 

[Joe Flacco]

I don't know about you guys but I really liked that 6% gdp growth rate in 2021.

People were getting jobs, getting raises, houses were being built and bought.

I want that. This 2% gdp growth rate is bull****.

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

The only people who made out during the 1970's

Being a geologist at a time when we were in demand worked well for me. It was the 80s that broke me. But all booms go bust and December 1981 was the peak oil price and peak drilling rig count. Almost 5,000 rigs running. Today the rig count is 826 or about 21 less than this time last year. Each rig is more productive alright, but that also is a measure of the smaller industry drilling is.

 

[timd354]

That one year of 8.5% REAL GDP growth during the 50's is equivalent to four years of growth during the 2010's.

There is nothing consistent from decade to decade shown in the Real GDP.

Yes, there was a boom in the early 50's that was fed fed by the Korean War the sparked huge growth, but that was followed by three recessions in pretty short order (1953, 1957=58 and 1960) which ended putting several automakers out of business or on life support as new car sales in the US fell from * million in 1955 to 4.3 million in 1958. The overall growth of real GDP in the 1950's averaged 2.4% on a per capita basis, which is not that much higher than the 1.9% per capita GDP growth rate so far in the 2020's, especially considering the distortion of the economy due to the pandemic in 2020.

 

[timd354]

Being a geologist at a time when we were in demand worked well for me. It was the 80s that broke me. But all booms go bust and December 1981 was the peak oil price and peak drilling rig count. Almost 5,000 rigs running. Today the rig count is 826 or about 21 less than this time last year. Each rig is more productive alright, but that also is a measure of the smaller industry drilling is.

Yes, I remember the 1980's oil bust well...everyone thought Houston would never recover.

 

[Joe Flacco]

Yes, there was a boom in the early 50's that was fed fed by the Korean War the sparked huge growth, but that was followed by three recessions in pretty short order (1953, 1957=58 and 1960) which ended putting several automakers out of business or on life support as new car sales in the US fell from * million in 1955 to 4.3 million in 1958. The overall growth of real GDP in the 1950's averaged 2.4% on a per capita basis, which is not that much higher than the 1.9% per capita GDP growth rate so far in the 2020's, especially considering the distortion of the economy due to the pandemic in 2020.

Your math doesn't make any sense.

Population is increasing since the 50's and real GDP growth rate is declining during the same period. The decline in real GDP on a per capita basis would multiply the decline the real GDP growth rate.