How Long Do You Think It Will Be?

[gregb]

Volume of active listings shows just a narrow slice of the market. Why should owners move when their job and income prospects look promising. You have to look at more data, like sales volume, expired and cancelled listings. If owners are not listing their homes for sale, there are more reasons than one. Some areas will be either not suffering much hurt in the wallet when there is a decline in values while other areas of the country are likely to suffer substantial declines. I happen to reside in one area that has shown great resilience to downward declines. That is basically because of tourism, the university, beaches and good climate.

 

[Joe Flacco]

I don't think anyone is actually telling you that you aren't seeing what you say you're seeing in your region. The problem here is that you don't seem to think we're seeing what we say we're seeing in our own region.

You don't really think all markets in the nation move on exactly the same clock, do you?

You yourself said in a different thread that you guys have a shortage. Are you saying you don't have a shortage?

 

[George Hatch]

Okay, so your region is at least a year behind us; that's easy enough to understand. Meanwhile over here none of us even thinks we know when our region will reach it's tipping point. It may be at some point in 2019 or it may go a lot longer than that. The point we're trying to make is that (in this area) we are already at or near overvalued relative to the long term trends so there's no real reason the trigger event couldn't happen at any point from here on out. We're in wait and see mode.

 

[George Hatch]

You yourself said in a different thread that you guys have a shortage. Are you saying you don't have a shortage?

I don't actually recall saying there was a shortage. If I said that it would have been without looking, which I normally wouldn't do in such a discussion.

At the moment (and for detached SFRs) we have 7144 actives and pendings against 7937 solds for the first 5 months of the year. I wouldn't call that some catastrophic shortage.

In 2017 we had 8760 closed sales as of 05/24. By my count that is 18.5% higher than the YTD sales for 2018. I don't know about you, but that doesn't look like nothing to me.

 

[Joe Flacco]

At the moment (and for detached SFRs) we have 7144 actives and pendings against 7937 solds for the first 5 months of the year. I wouldn't call that a shortage.

Okay well let us know when your prices start crashing.

 

[George Hatch]

Others may be saying that, but I never said prices were crashing, same as i don't think we actually have a big shortage of actives. Further and IMO, if a correction DID commence today I don't think it would amount to a crash.

Anyways I think we can all agree that while YOU may be seeing a shortage in your area, that's not necessarily a universal occurrence.

 

[Joe Flacco]

Others may be saying that, but I never said prices were crashing, same as i don't think we actually have a big shortage of actives. Further and IMO, if a correction DID commence today I don't think it would amount to a crash.

I don't think we are getting another crash like that in your lifetime or my lifetime.

 

[gregb]

Okay well let us know when your prices start crashing.

Carlsbad is not crashing anytime soon if anyone knows about this beachside town.

 

[Joe Flacco]

Historical average 6% per year.

 

[George Hatch]

I don't think we are getting another crash like that in your lifetime or my lifetime.

That depends entirely on how distorted the sale prices get. The lenders seem to be trying their level best to extend the bull run by loosening their underwriting criteria, and we're seeing other behavior that has cropped up before in the later stages of an RE

I think that the way the banks have been holding their non-performing assets for years on end has prevented this last correction from correcting all the way. If the mark-to-market accounting requirements had been adequately enforced and the lenders had been compelled to book their losses the pricing would have dropped by prolly another 15% - 20%.

Suffice it to say that I learned a long time ago to never say never.