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How Long Do You Think It Will Be?

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MAY 29, 2018

Some Folks Are Getting Into Homes They Couldn’t Afford

A report from Mansion Global on New Mexico. “Santa Fe is now the ‘hottest second-home market’ in the world, according to ‘Luxury Defined,’ Christie’s annual analysis of global luxury residential housing dynamics, which was released earlier this month. ‘New Mexico’s capital city of Santa Fe posted luxury sales volume levels not seen since 2005-2006,’ according to the report. ‘We have a very large second home market—that is a big focus here,’ said Darlene Streit, an agent with Sotheby’s International Realty in Santa Fe. ‘Lately we have been seeing a lot of people coming from Colorado as well as our usual markets of Texas and California,’ she said. ‘We’re also seeing a lot more New Yorkers.’”

From Fortune. “For decades, it’s been part of the American dream: owning a vacation home, a lakeside or mountain getaway somewhere for the family to escape to on weekends or for a week or two in summer. And with the country enjoying strong economic growth, a healthy stock market, and relatively low mortgage rates, you might think beach houses and country cabins would be especially hot commodities today.”

“But all is not well in Holiday Village. ‘Vacation-home sales have been relatively weak for the last four or five years,’ says Aaron Terrazas, senior economist for Zillow. Demand is being stalled by a traffic jam of different trends—ranging from climate change to demographics to, of all things, the Trump tax reforms. Year-over-year price changes in many second-home markets have dipped into negative territory, and some experts think that trend could go national over the next couple of years—making many buyers think twice about a real estate investment that people used to count on for both fun and profit.”

“There were only 721,000 vacation-home sales transactions that year, a 36% drop from 2014.”

From Realtor.com. “It’s no secret that we’re in one heck of a sizzling housing market, with prices reaching new heights in many parts of the country. It’s a go-go seller’s paradise of historic proportions. It may seem like nothing can slow down those runaway prices for everything from high-rise condos in the biggest cities to cookie-cutter, single-family homes in the suburbs. But here’s the news: There are exceptions to every rule.”

“There are actually a few metropolitan areas in the U.S. where prices are coming down. (Only 27 of the nation’s 350 largest metros saw price drops.) We compared the 12-month periods of May 2016 to April 2017 with May 2017 to April 2018 to come up with our findings. Then we ranked metros that saw the biggest price cuts. Now let’s take a look at the metros where buyers can still get a home for a discount. Maybe even a deep discount!”
 
I would go so far as to say that when I refer to "yield" I am referring to how the typical buyers will most likely use the site, which isn't always at the maximum density. Just because an urban site has a maximum FAR of 10.0 doesn't mean that site will get built out with a high rise. The local economics balanced against the costs of construction will come into play, too.

I have a property with an HBU problem in the queue right now. It's a site located in an outlying community where they have no maximum density; only a 4-story height limitation. The borrower thinks they can get 60 units onsite; and maybe that's physically possible and legally permissible. But from looking at the rents and sale prices of existing multi-family in town it doesn't look to me like the returns would justify the costs of the types of construction it would take to get that density. The other wrinkle to that site is that there are 9 existing units onsite; so there really is a question as to whether the property is worth more in that market based on its existing use or based on its value as a supposedly redevelopable site (which means land value less cost to cure).

Long story short, while we can get away with actually ignoring the active consideration of HBU in a lot of assignments, what's really going on there is the appraiser is substituting an undeveloped assumption for a developed opinion because their valuation is still based on the concept that the property is worth the most in its HBU.
 
From WHO TV in Iowa. “Higher rise living space is planned for downtown Des Moines, including more than 500 rental units. The city says 200 of those should be available by 2022, but some residents say that’s a lot of homes to fill. ‘I think it’s crazy. I just don’t think there is any need for it, but that’s just my opinion,’ Des Moines resident Jodi Aldini-Zepeda said. ‘The apartments they do have, are they vacant or filled?’”

“According to Zillow, there are currently more than 200 units listed as vacant downtown.”
 
From News 5 Cleveland in Ohio. “The cost of new construction in the City of Cleveland continues to rise with several current projects advertising townhomes and brownstones for well over $400,000. This is in stark contrast to the average annual income of a family in the Cleveland-metro area, which the U.S. Census Bureau places at just over $52,000. ‘What we’re seeing here in the City of Cleveland in terms of new residential construction is the majority of the focus is on the very, very high end,’ said William Mahnic is an associate professor in the Business and Finance Department at Case Western Reserve University.”
 
I wonder if these developers have any experience with units sitting vacant or being sold for less than the costs of construction?
 
From National Real Estate Investor. “Apartment landlords can no longer raise rents like they used to. So many new apartment units are opening that the percentage that vacancy is inching higher across the country. The number of new apartments opening has been trending higher than the number of apartments absorbed. Developers are expected to open a little more than 300,000 new units a year through 2019, matching the current high level of production, according to RealPage.”

“All the new development is putting stress on the apartment sector. ‘Vacancies have been rising since late 2016 as a veritable avalanche of new supply (a record high for some areas) works as a counterbalancing force,’ says Victor Calanog, chief economist of data firm Reis Inc.”
 
I've seen lots of mapped residential subdivisions sell for 10 cents on the dollar during a bust.

In downtown SD there were several BIG high-rise condo projects that were operated as rentals as an interim holding strategy while they waited for the pricing to recover enough to sell at their costs.

If NOW is not always a great time to buy a home, it's especially not always a great time to be buying land or developing new homes or condos.
 
Fed's Mester says improving economy means there needs to be more rate hikes

In interview, Cleveland Fed president sees myriad of reasons to keep lifting interest rates

May 31, 2018

Mester threw cold water on the idea that wages are somehow mysteriously low. The fact is that worker compensation is rising and soon will be reflected in the statistics, she said. She said she could tolerate “a couple” of inflation readings above 2%. She stressed that the data would dictate the path of policy, and the impact of the Trump tax cut and Congressional spending package would be much clearer later this year. I believe that inflation is moving up toward, and will be at, our goal of 2% sustainably over the next year or so.

But, at the same time, we know that, as the economy continues to grow, we are a little beyond full employment. The unemployment rate, I expect, will continue to come down even further. Inflation is moving up, you don’t want to not be attentive to that either. I don’t think it is a good strategy to try purposely to overheat the economy because I think that could lead to bad outcomes.
 
Bad signs suggest housing market rebound is dying

After disappointment in new- and existing-home-sales, pending home sales in April tumbled 1.3% MoM (missing expectations of a 0.4% gain - and well below the lowest analysts estimate).

Contract signings to purchase previously owned U.S. homes unexpectedly declined in April, underscoring the housing market’s challenge centered around a persistent inventory shortage, according to data released Thursday from the National Association of Realtors in Washington.



2018-05-31_7-03-02.jpg


A limited number of for-sale properties is keeping prices elevated at a time when mortgage rates have climbed to an almost seven-year high.

And housing does not look like it's going to get a bounce anytime soon.
 
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