How Long Do You Think It Will Be?

[Randolph Kinney]

Goldman Sachs is known for corporate mergers and managing money for billionaires. Recently, the firm started lending money to regular people. Hundreds have since filed for bankruptcy.

Not a good sign for the economy.

 

[Randolph Kinney]

A new report from the Department of Housing and Urban Development says that a San Francisco metro area family of four bringing in $117,400 a year qualifies as “low income." Last year, the cut off was $105,350. An annual salary of $82,000 now puts single adults in the “low income” bracket as well.

Other notoriously expensive cities aren’t nearly as extreme. In New York, the “low income” threshold for a family of four is $83,450 per year. In Los Angeles, it’s $77,500.

Making ends meet for a family of four in San Francisco requires a household income of $92,139, according to MIT’s living wage calculator.

Even some white-collar employees in the area are struggling. In 2017, one Twitter employee earning a $160,000 salary told The Guardian that he's barely scraping by in Silicon Valley.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/28/families-earning-117000-qualify-as-low-income-in-san-francisco.html

Applicants for affordable housing hoping to qualify for affordable housing in San Francisco must earn less than 117,400 a year to qualify for low-income housing in San Francisco.

The city's median income of $118,400.

Wonder how long home prices can remain this high where making $117,000 a year qualifies one for housing assistance?

 

[Eli]

the next recession could be way worse than the last. Watch your numbers like on the 1004mc. Not just sales. Look at all the indicators.

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

I am most certainly not cheering for a meltdown

Who is? But preparing for the worst isn't a bad strategy except for the moral hazard that you don't get bailed out, only the stupid fools who created the bubble in the first place get bailed out.

by extension most doomsayers.

When someone in the position of Ben Bernanke stupidly says that there is no "market contagion" as late as 2008, when it was obvious for years before that we were headed over the cliff, then you know the government isn't going to stop the lemmings from going off the edge. It is just a matter of how far from the cliff are we? Crashes cannot be timed, no more than the market, but they can be expected when the proper events take place.

The yield curve is basically the difference between interest rates on short-term United States government bonds, say, two-year Treasury notes, and long-term government bonds, like 10-year Treasury notes

Is it a leading indicator, or rather the result of the forces in play anticipating the inevitable. Timing has a lot to do with the success of an Indian Rain Dance.

 

[Randolph Kinney]

Who is? But preparing for the worst isn't a bad strategy except for the moral hazard that you don't get bailed out, only the stupid fools who created the bubble in the first place get bailed out.
When someone in the position of Ben Bernanke stupidly says that there is no "market contagion" as late as 2008, when it was obvious for years before that we were headed over the cliff, then you know the government isn't going to stop the lemmings from going off the edge. It is just a matter of how far from the cliff are we? Crashes cannot be timed, no more than the market, but they can be expected when the proper events take place.

Is it a leading indicator, or rather the result of the forces in play anticipating the inevitable. Timing has a lot to do with the success of an Indian Rain Dance.

It is both a leading indicator, and economic forces reflecting federal reserve policies and investor expectations.

A steepening curve typically indicates stronger economic activity and rising inflation expectations, and thus, higher interest rates. When the yield curve is steep, banks are able to borrow money at lower interest rates and lend at higher interest rates.

Historically, an inverted yield curve has been viewed as an indicator of a pending economic recession. When short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates, market sentiment suggests that the long-term outlook is poor and that the yields offered by long-term fixed income will continue to fall.

https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/capital_markets/ycfaq.html

Strange how appraiser are blamed for home prices rising or falling. It is not a case that one becomes joyful over prices rising or falling, just a matter of examining market data to say what the trends will result in.

 

[Tim The Enchanter]

How long? Five minutes.

 

[Randolph Kinney]

Amazon, whose 45% YTD return has contributed to 36% of the S&P, including dividends.

Just the Top 4 stocks, Amazon, Microsoft, Apple and Netflix have been responsible for 84% of the S&P upside in 2018.

A tech crash may be all that it takes to launch the next recession.

 

[Doug in NC]

How to screw small-time investors out of millions of dollars when you run a hedge fund: (Internal video leaked from Jim Cramer)

 

[ucbruin]

Now we know one of the reasons why Cramer is a rich man.....

 

[Randolph Kinney]

NYSE's Arms Index suggests panic-like selling

The stock market's drop Monday is showing panic-like characteristics for the first time in three months, according to the NYSE's Arms Index, which is a volume-weighted breadth measure used to gauge the intensity of buying and selling. The Arms, which tends to rise above 1.000 when the broader market falls, hiked up to 2.254 in afternoon trade. Many technicians view rises above 2.000 to indicate panic-, or capitulation-like, selling. The number of declining stocks outnumbered advancing stocks 1,781 to 1,114, or by a ratio of 1.60 to 1. Meanwhile, volume in declining stocks was 235.1 million shares versus 65.2 million shares of advancing stocks, for a much higher ratio of 3.61 to 1. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.21% was down 161 points and the S&P 500 SPX, -0.07% was down 0.5%. The last time the NYSE's Arms Index closed above 2.000 was April 6, when it closed at 3.01, and the Dow tumbled 572.46 points and the S&P 500 shed 2.2%.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/n...sts-panic-like-selling-2018-07-02?siteid=bnbh