How Long Do You Think It Will Be?

[Addie]

Q3'08 $12.68T. Today $13.3T. Inflation adjusted Q3'08 is $14.8T. So we got another $1.5T to go. Puts us right about 2020. There's like 1,000 data points that say 2020 comes a typical Capitalism reset.

 

[Addie]

Take anyway you want.

Write $7T of notes over 5 year period (03-08) or $7T over 10 years to <620 credit in a rising rate environment, gonna be a similar outcome, just not as deep.

 

[Eli]

I can see things in neighborhoods right now that are way different from a year ago. Pay attention to year over year and current trends. Be careful. Don’t rely on national or regional trends. Do neighborhood trends. Do competing property trends. Bifurcation is important depending on the neighborhood boundaries. Competing is crucial.

 

[Mike Garrett RAA]

The sky is falling.....days on the market just jumped to 8 from 6.

 

[Addie]

The sky is falling.....days on the market just jumped to 8 from 6.

Not even close. No one here saying that. Now come 2020. Yes. Called a warning. To heed or not is up to you. But you have been given the info just like I have. We both have the same 24 hours in a day.

 

[Eli]

The sky is falling.....days on the market just jumped to 8 from 6.

Lol. It is falling in some areas. It never fell on some areas. Lol

In the Bible, it rains on the just and the unjust. Many people see that verse as a curse on the unjust. Rain is a blessing.....period. Nothing grows without it.

I like it here when the heat index can reach 110. Temp 93. Heat index 105 to 110. Lol

The weather people call it air you can wear. Lol

I have talked to several veterans that served in Iraq. They are like it was scorching hot there but you didn’t sweat much. The air was dry. Low humidity.

 

[Mike Garrett RAA]

Sky opened up here twice in the past two weeks. Massive hail measuring as much a 4". Thousands of cars and houses damaged. That said...the real estate market still moves upward. Colorado is one of the best states when it comes to increase in value. El Paso County (mine) is considered in the top 10 nationally. Our MLS publishes stats monthly broken down into the 30 MLS sub areas. I include a one page Local Market Condition addenda in every one of the appraisal reports along with a comparative market analysis of the listings, pendings, and closed sales. We are blessed in most areas to have lots of sales and good market data. I've been through 3 major declines in my 38 years of appraising and I suspect we will see another one at some point in the future; however, I don't see it in the immediate future...at least in MY MARKET.

 

[Eli]

Sky opened up here twice in the past two weeks. Massive hail measuring as much a 4". Thousands of cars and houses damaged. That said...the real estate market still moves upward. Colorado is one of the best states when it comes to increase in value. El Paso County (mine) is considered in the top 10 nationally. Our MLS publishes stats monthly broken down into the 30 MLS sub areas. I include a one page Local Market Condition addenda in every one of the appraisal reports along with a comparative market analysis of the listings, pendings, and closed sales. We are blessed in most areas to have lots of sales and good market data. I've been through 3 major declines in my 38 years of appraising and I suspect we will see another one at some point in the future; however, I don't see it in the immediate future...at least in MY MARKET.

When you get 70% or more humidity and 90 degrees plus, it’s rough on anybody. That’s when they do excessive heat warnings and code orange warnings on air quality.

One day not to long ago, temperature in Knoxville was like 92 and heat index was 92. Temperature in Memphis was 92 and heat index was 107. Same temp. Lol

 

[Randolph Kinney]

Mortgage balances rise along with overall household debt

The second quarter marks the 16th consecutive quarter with an overall increase.

 

[TD Morgan]

Take anyway you want.

Write $7T of notes over 5 year period (03-08) or $7T over 10 years to <620 credit in a rising rate environment, gonna be a similar outcome, just not as deep.

View attachment 36564

Does this imply a large number of cash transactions?