How Long Do You Think It Will Be?

[Randolph Kinney]

To understand the magnitude of the housing bubbles simply compare the index of wages to the index of prices.

https://www.themaven.net/mishtalk/e...in-one-simple-picture-LwBwDhZDjU6tKdH-jOpefg/

 

[Joe Flacco]

yes, as a result of Reagan's tax cuts, the economy was boosted which resulted in much higher tax revenue. the problem was that the growth in government spending over the same time period outpaced the growth in tax revenue

What caused the growth in government spending? Was it military?

 

[Joe Flacco]

If it was military spending then it makes sense why Trump is pressing NATO countries to boost military spending.

 

[timd354]

What caused the growth in government spending? Was it military?

Much of government spending as a percentage of the GDP remaiedn stable and military spending actually decreased (as a % of GDP) in the late 1980's. The largest and most pernicious growth in government spending is a result of entitlements (mainly social security and health case) and this show no signs of abating and will eventually break the country if nothing changes:

 

[Randolph Kinney]

Last housing bubble no longer accountable for local foreclosure growth

Foreclosure filings plummeted in the first half of the year, but 40% of local markets saw foreclosure starts increase, with the last housing bubble no longer to blame for the growth, according to Attom Data Solutions.http://link.email.nationalmortgagen...jVkNTU2ZDE3/52e9a69ec16bcfa46f1c8dbaD8cb25b26

 

[Addie]

Buyer of last resort becomes sellers. queue recession 24 months from 2018.

 

[Randolph Kinney]

US Budget Deficit Hits $607 Billion In 9 Months, As Spending On Interest Explodes

The U.S. budget deficit widened by 16 percent to $607 billion three-quarters of the way through Donald Trump’s first full fiscal year as president, as spending accelerated faster than revenue.

The shortfall in the nine months through June was larger than the $523 billion gap in the same period of fiscal 2017, according to a report from the Treasury Department released Thursday. Revenue rose to $2.54 trillion in the period, up 1.3 percent from a year earlier. Spending rose 3.9 percent to $3.15 trillion.

In December, Trump signed into law about $1.5 trillion in tax cuts intended to boost economic growth, wages and investment. While the economy likely quickened in the second quarter from the first three months of the year, revenue in the April-June period totaled $1.04 trillion, up slightly from $1.03 trillion in the same period a year earlier.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-budget-deficit-jumps-first-180016123.html

Debt is growing faster than revenues. Interest expense explodes.

 

[Randolph Kinney]

More rate hikes likely to come, says Fed chair

17 Jul 2018

Further interest rate increases are in the future, according to the chairman of the Federal Reserve.

The economy is running at a fast enough pace that continued rate increases are justified, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said today in remarks to the Senate Banking Committee.

“Overall, we see the risk of the economy unexpectedly weakening as roughly balanced with the possibility of the economy growing faster than we currently anticipate,” he said. “The unemployment rate is low and expected to fall further. Americans who want jobs have a good chance of finding them.”

Powell said that although the economy grew at a pace of just 2% in the first quarter, second-quarter growth was “considerably stronger than the first.”

“Robust job gains, rising after-tax incomes, and optimism among households have lifted consumer spending in recent months,” he said. “Investment by businesses has continued to grow at a healthy rate. Good economic performance in other countries has supported US exports and manufacturing. And while housing construction has not increased this year, it is up noticeably from where it stood a few years ago.”

https://www.mpamag.com/news/more-rate-hikes-likely-to-come-says-fed-chair-106188.aspx

 

[Randolph Kinney]

IDS Hybrid eClosings: a Reality-Ready Doc Prep Solution

Ignore the hype. We deliver digital solutions to meet your needs in today’s mortgage market.

 

[Randolph Kinney]

10% of mortgaged homes are underwater

More than 5.5 million US homes are underwater, representing 10.5% of all homes with a mortgage.

ATTOM Data Solutions says that while many of the hottest housing markets have seen the share of underwater homes drop, there are some markets that are still struggling to recover from the financial crisis.

https://www.mpamag.com/market-update/10-of-mortgaged-homes-are-underwater-108469.aspx

Since we are near or past the peak of many markets, those that have bought houses within the last year will soon be underwater as the real estate markets begins declining.