How Long Do You Think It Will Be?

[Randolph Kinney]

Nothing is crashing until there is no SHORTAGE okay? "ALL of your reasoning" will show up in active listings increasing which indicates SHORTAGE is easing. Until there is no SHORTAGE there is no point talking about a bust or a crash.

Is there really a shortage? I don't see 3+ buyers on every house for sale. There may be some multiple offers, but for the most part it is not there. There are buyers waiting to pull the trigger when they find what they want, and when they do, they don't lowball a bid, they come in at top dollar.

 

[DTB]

Here's the problem with your perspective. You haven't ever been there and done that the way we have. We were way out in front of the last market correction and history has proven both our perspectives and ALL of the reasoning behind it to be completely right. Meanwhile, all the guys who were saying the same things then that you're saying now were later proven completely wrong. They skulked out of here, never to return.

So, if I were you I wouldn't indulge too much in the idea that "it hasn't happened yet so it's not going to happen". You may come to regret it.

When one is euphemistically early with their predictions they leave quite a bit of money on the table. No different than the guy who is late in his decision making.

 

[Joe Flacco]

Is there really a shortage? I don't see 3+ buyers on every house for sale. There may be some multiple offers, but for the most part it is not there. There are buyers waiting to pull the trigger when they find what they want, and when they do, they don't lowball a bid, they come in at top dollar.

Look at little bit closer at what I have been posting. Do you not see a relationship between price and active listing?

 

[Randolph Kinney]

View attachment 35473


Look at little bit closer at what I have been posting. Do you not see a relationship between price and active listing?

I see price increasing. I don't see a shortage of listings.

 

[Joe Flacco]

 

[Joe Flacco]

I see price increasing. I don't see a shortage of listings.

Okay buddy. I guess price goes up when there are more sellers than buyers then. SMH

 

[Joe Flacco]

You don't see the price increasing when listings got low in 2012/2013 and then price flatten out when listings increased in 2014/2015? And then price increasing again in 2017 as active listings are declining?

What are you looking at?

 

[George Hatch]

When one is euphemistically early with their predictions they leave quite a bit of money on the table. No different than the guy who is late in his decision making.

I haven't attached any timing to it. So on my end there is no "early" involved at this point. What I do know is that the extent of a correction is related to the extent of the excess that it corrects, so the longer and more distorted the bull run gets the harder the bear will bite back in response. So from that perspective we're all better off if that occurs sooner rather than later.

It's not how much you make that counts, it's how much you're able to keep. The guy who leaves money on the table but has booked his 'lesser' profits ends up coming out ahead of the guy who tries to wait it out and gets burned when he's late.

Try to bear in mind that we're not referring to you two wannabe property moguls who are now being warned - we're referring the masses who don't have access to the early warning signs until 6 months later when the news outlets finally run a story on it. After it's too late.

 

[Joe Flacco]

I haven't attached any timing to it. So on my end there is no "early" involved at this point. What I do know is that the extent of a correction is related to the extent of the excess that it corrects, so the longer and more distorted the bull run gets the harder the bear will bite back in response. So from that perspective we're all better off if that occurs sooner rather than later.

It's not how much you make that counts, it's how much you're able to keep. The guy who leaves money on the table but has booked his 'lesser' profits ends up coming out ahead of the guy who tries to wait it out and gets burned when he's late.

Try to bear in mind that we're not referring to you two wannabe property moguls who are now being warned - we're referring the masses who don't have access to the early warning signs until 6 months later when the news outlets finally run a story on it. After it's too late.

You are hilarious!

Let me ask you. Were you tracking the number of active listings pre-financial crisis?

NO. Because you were not able to collect that data. If you were able to you would have seen it building sharply from 2004-2006.

 

[Joe Flacco]

Active listings went from 100 to 150 in this zip between 2005 and 2006. Probably went from 50 to 100 between 2004 and 2005. You think the number of active listings get that high overnight? It took at least two years to get that high and then bottom fell out a year later in 2006 in exurbs and 2007 closer in.