How Long Do You Think It Will Be?

[Randolph Kinney]

It's not declining, Randolph. It is like that every year. Just look at it. The last 8 bars (quarters) are higher year over year. Eight straight quarters of YOY increase in price. It is increasing.

I will update the chart for you Q2-2018 becomes available.

I saw the pattern on Price, spikes in Q1 and declines the rest of the year. How does that pattern correlate to number of listings? Looks like the number of listings for two years is constant, yearly totals. Looks like 30,000 average per quarter over the year. That's not a shortage, Joe.

 

[timd354]

i never knew any of that, so thanks for the explanation.

I know it sounds pretty absurd, but I knew the guy who designed the 1004 MC and he directly told me the story of why it was designed the way it was.....the conversation resulted from me giving him a hard time about having two columns that had 3 time periods of three months while the third column covered a 6 month time period, which confused a lot of people (especially underwwriters) quite a bit initially....I basically asked him wtf did you do that? and then he proceeded to tell me about the scanning issues that limited him to 3 columns

 

[timd354]

The MLS systems also tend to have a limitation on how many records you can download at one time, so that makes it hard to deal with the huge datasets, too.

Yes, my MLS at the time limited the number of records that could be downloaded at one time to either 500 or 1000 (I can't remember which after all of these years)

 

[Joe Flacco]

I saw the pattern on Price, spikes in Q1 and declines the rest of the year. How does that pattern correlate to number of listings? Looks like the number of listings for two years is constant, yearly totals. Looks like 30,000 average per quarter over the year. That's not a shortage, Joe.

I think the confusion is maybe that you are from Cali. We have seasonality. Actual prices are not declining from quarter to quarter.

It is Q2 (Spring season) that sees the price spike which correlates with a big spike in number of sales. Q2 and Q3 probably makes up at least 2/3 of sales for the year.

Definition of shortage is when demand is greater than supply. That's what moves price. Maybe not extreme shortage but the data is saying when active listings dip to the level in 2012/2013 and 2017/2018 then price goes up. Demand is greater than supply. That is a shortage. If it becomes a extreme shortage which is possible, then prices probably go up faster.

 

[timd354]

That worksheet was specific to the form. i did it because appraisers were stressed out and fretting about having to spend an hour running data and doing the calcs by hand and using averages instead of medians. With a little practice you could build a single MLS run, export it into the worksheet and get the grid populated in less than 5 minutes.

i even wrote an A-Z tutorial about how to set the exports up and use the worksheet, and distributed that, too.
.

Yes, you made it idiot proof and you sacved a lot of people a whole lot of work with your incredible act of generosity

 

[Randolph Kinney]

I think the confusion is maybe that you are from Cali. We have seasonality. Actual prices are not declining from quarter to quarter.

It is Q2 (Spring season) that sees the price spike which correlates with a big spike in number of sales. Q2 and Q3 probably makes up at least 2/3 of sales for the year.

You need to perform a regression analysis on Price versus Volume, median price per month versus median volume per month over 2 years. Post the analysis.

 

[George Hatch]

I think the confusion is maybe that you are from Cali. We have seasonality. Actual prices are not declining from quarter to quarter.

It is Q2 (Spring season) that sees the price spike which correlates with a big spike in number of sales. Q2 and Q3 probably makes up at least 2/3 of sales for the year.

Definition of shortage is when demand is greater than supply. That's what moves price. Maybe not extreme shortage but the data is saying when active listings dip to the level in 2012/2013 and 2017/2018 then price goes up. Demand is greater than supply. That is a shortage. If it becomes a extreme shortage which is possible, then prices probably go up faster.

Something else to consider is where your market's timing is in relation to other markets. Some markets in the nation never did enter into catastrophic declines because the flippers never really got going in their markets and they didn't have the big price increases. Others lagged entering into the declining trend by over 2 years or more. We still aren't seeing any big slowdown in the markets that are on the leading edges of these trends so we wouldn't expect everyone else all over the nation seeing what we see yet.

All we're saying is that we're starting to see some of the same signs we saw last time, even if not to the same degree.

 

[Joe Flacco]

You need to perform a regression analysis on Price versus Volume, median price per month versus median volume per month over 2 years. Post the analysis.

wth? You do it and post the analysis.

You are thinking way too much into it. Can you see where demand > supply and where demand = supply if I draw it like this?

 

[George Hatch]

I don't think anyone is actually telling you that you aren't seeing what you say you're seeing in your region. The problem here is that you don't seem to think we're seeing what we say we're seeing in our own region.

You don't really think all markets in the nation move on exactly the same clock, do you?

 

[Joe Flacco]

Something else to consider is where your market's timing is in relation to other markets. Some markets in the nation never did enter into catastrophic declines because the flippers never really got going in their markets and they didn't have the big price increases. Others lagged entering into the declining trend by over 2 years or more. We still aren't seeing any big slowdown in the markets that are on the leading edges of these trends so we wouldn't expect everyone else all over the nation seeing what we see yet.

All we're saying is that we're starting to see some of the same signs we saw last time, even if not to the same degree.

I get what you are saying. In my area the outer suburbs topped in 2006 and then closer in areas topped in 2007. And some places like Arlington were not really effected at all. The outer suburbs got crushed and closer in suburbs went down less. My county is barely back to highs in closer in suburbs and not back to highs in outer suburbs but in the city is at ATH. Listings just now getting to shortage in my county so I expect prices to start moving higher.

Not even fully recovered yet so a crash right now sounds pretty crazy to me.