I am not doing the 3.6 FORM deal

[Dublin ohio]

Best short and to the point summary I have seen. And I agree 100%. Nailed it.

Except with all of the widgets in the new software. The same appraisers that turn and burn now will also use the widgets to spit out appraisals in no more than an hour or two. Of course the quality will really be suspect. But how long will it take the powers that be to realize they are getting black box appraisals

 

[Airstream]

Because we need the MLS more than they need us

Possibly. I just saw a survey from the Realtors to agents asking about hybrid appraisals. I think they are getting nervous that in-experienced individuals are inspecting properties that could result in bad things happening for closings. I just got asked to do a PDC for $75. Tell me…who does that for $75 and does it competently?

 

[Overimprovement]

If I'm deluded about my own evaluation of the upcoming "Failure to timely implement 'The UAD 3.6 Abomination", then - I get to retire in July 2026 (when we go on a long vacation) instead of sometime in 2027. Sounds like a "Win-Win" scenario to me!

Where are you vacationing? Stuck at work for 8 more years people need to live vicariously!

 

[Overimprovement]

Except with all of the widgets in the new software. The same appraisers that turn and burn now will also use the widgets to spit out appraisals in no more than an hour or two. Of course the quality will really be suspect. But how long will it take the powers that be to realize they are getting black box appraisals

The worse the output, the greater the ammunition to forego appraiser created reports forever. I think that was part of Terrel's point.

 

[shrubberyvaluation]

The worse the output, the greater the ammunition to forego appraiser created reports forever. I think that was part of Terrel's point.

I will disagree slightly. Most outside the profession don't know what a good report/output is aside from it coming in at the value they want.

 

[RCA]

I say let Alamode, Bradford, et. al. burn themselves out creating this crap. Then maybe I will jump in and create something if it is not too much work, and beat them up. Of course,with my system you will have to use MARS, be able to take good photos and so on. Yes, my system will reject photos that are blurry and lack resolution. It will reject adjustments and accept only value contributions, it will provide a real sales grid that can be dumped into whatever the idiot GSEs require. And I have other ideas. Lots of ideas.

I'm hoping of course that Grok, Claude and ChatGPT will have picked up a lot of info from Alamode and Bradford doing their work, plus improved its analysis of Fannie Mae specs, so I can get it all done with little effort. If I decide to proceed. Just a passing thought. I really haven't looked into it that much. Maybe I will just focus on my war with traditional appraisal.

 

[Zoe]

I don't think you understand the complexity of commercial nor the capabilities of AI (and you are conflating basic algorithms and finance math that have been around forever with blanket usage of the "AI" term). The idea that residential is more dynamic than commercial is hilarious. Furthermore, there's way less public data available for commercial - much of it is proprietary; it's not even a technical problem.

I understand commercial valuation very well. Many segments of the commercial market have large brokerage firms that publish all kinds of commercial data. I admit I don't know all the available sources AI could use in income cap/sales comp/cost approaches to value but there are many sources of data AI can tap.

 

[Zoe]

I think of national chains too. Do I believe a commercial appraiser will be needed to input some data into an AI program? In some cases. In some cases a national firm like a large commercial brokerage firm might be able to do it with a computer program in many areas.

I am pretty familiar with ARGUS. AI will improve on ARGUS.

GSEs are not in the commercial appraisal business by and large, so 3.6 won't apply. I am not even sure GSEs will be around forever. Govt may own them. (Fannie/Freddie).

With another huge taxpayer bailout to Fannie or Freddie, Govt will probably own them.

 

[Tom D]

With only several appraisal program developers, i see a darker side. What's to prevent them from really high increasing their fee's. i'm sure it will go to a new higher monthly fee, probable double at minimum. With corelogic owning total, they can kill every independent appraiser, or charge them to death. They are the coming godzilla of 1 management company in control of appraising. Now, who would buy bradford to compete.

 

[J Grant]

The software companies are not the problem. The stakeholders set out to diminish the role of appraisers and they succeeded in that mission. The appraisal profession will survive, if in reduced numbers, but the residential license side of mortgage lender work ( the vast majority of which was conventional or FHA/VA ), will be a shadow of its former self. Very few are signing up for or graduating from PAREA to train as a res license. Why would any young person or any person with an ounce of sense want to train, even with expedited training, for a field that is being marginalized, with assignments cut up into fast food , low pay widgets, a field that does not offer sufficient financial compensation due to fee predation from the AMC's? Anyone who can get out, will get out within the next few years. UAD 3.6 is one more reason to leave sooner rather than later, if anyone has the means to do so.