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Market areas and Market Trends

Back to the OP, the train is still coming. I really wish someone would pay a few boots on the ground appraisers bags of money to write papers on the subject or at least consult. Beyond the purist mentality of "if it can be measured it can be adjusted for" our big problem is Ph.D.'s and desk jokey appraisers have won the narrative and are riding whatever money train they can hop on. And boots on the ground appraisers had no chance to shape any of this, mostly because we have to actually work for a living and our orgs are filled with self-serving people who are just trying to pad their own nests with the ridiculous amounts of money pouring into our profession.

The carnage that will be left behind by people in appraisal orgs who spent millions on training and classes that have no demand, or millions on software to drive adjustments and essentially the market, will be transformational and they will just move on to the next gig. When we look back, for those left standing, this will be a niche market with few practitioners making full time money.

Here's a study by the FHFA, notice not a single site sourced from any appraisal paper or org. And that's a flat-out failure of the orgs, especially the AI.

 
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And here's a post on LinkedIn showing who's driving the discussion:

Time adjustments.png
 
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Non Sequitur said:
Back to the OP, the train is still coming. I really wish someone would pay a few boots on the ground appraiser bags of money to write papers on the subject or at least consult. Beyond the purist mentality of "if it can be measured it can be adjusted for" our big problem is Ph.D.'s and desk jokey appraisers have won the narrative and are riding whatever money train they can hop on. And boots on the ground appraisers had no chance to shape any of this, mostly because we have to actually work for a living and our orgs are filled with self-serving people who are just trying to pad their own nests with the ridiculous amounts of money pouring into our profession.

The carnage that will be left behind by people who spent millions on training classes that have no demand, or millions on software to drive adjustments and essentially the market, will just move on to the next gig. When we look back, for those left standing, this will be a niche skill with few practitioners making full time money.

Here's a study by the FHFA, notice not a single site sourced from any appraisal paper or org. And that's a flat-out failure of the orgs, especially the AI.

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Yes, I am sure everyone - appraiser, regulator, and real estate expert alike - understands this concept perfectly....not.
1733581213039.png36 pages of BS to tell you the obvious, prices rise in spring and go flat by fall...sort of....depending...sometimes...
 
Terrel L. Shields said:
Yes, I am sure everyone - appraiser, regulator, and real estate expert alike - understands this concept perfectly....not.
View attachment 9446536 pages of BS to tell you the obvious, prices rise in spring and go flat by fall...sort of....depending...sometimes...
Click to expand...
Yeah, we've all heard the stories of buyers walking through single-unit residential dwellings with paper in hand scratching those calculations out before making offers.

Not.

But here we are, we'll be asked about door color adjustments when these desk jockeys get their way. Think I'm kidding? Google "does door color have a measured price difference in house sale price" or something similar:

"Homes with a black front door could sell for an estimated $6,449 more than similar homes. Most buyers say they would likely buy a home with a slate blue front door, and might pay, on average, $1,537 more for it. Homes with pale pink front doors could sell for an estimated $6,516 less than expected."

I wonder if they seasonally adjust for that too? Trends change in a flash now because of HGtv.
 
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The benchmark they use for the predicted adjustments is Zillow. Ridiculous.
 
Joe Flacco said:
The benchmark they use for the predicted adjustments is Zillow. Ridiculous.
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I agree, ridiculous. But backed by more alphabet soup, phony-baloney regression, and money than we are. A LOT more. And not a single paper has been published by any appraisal org to refute anything Zillow. So in the future, who will pilot that adjustment train?
 
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It's hard to be mad because I know that generally we do not do a good job with market conditions adjustments. It's complex and the author of the paper doesn't seem to understand the complexities involved.
 
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