Market change?

[Gobears81]

Appraising the same condo I appraised a year ago. Top one is months of supply chart when I appraised it in 2025 and the bottom one is the months of supply chart in the new report.

Guess what happened.

How much lower were you a year later?

I'm starting to see some low commercial sales come through. Not enough to call a trend, but I'm in such a thin market that they can't be ignored. Utilities just went up 25%, insurance said to increase 14% YoY (though I am personally bigger increases than that), and the multipliers on the assessed values are still showing a 10% annual increase. Someone told me that the assessors cannot put different multipliers on commercial properties vs residential, but everybody is getting squeezed here.

 

[Joe Flacco]

How much lower were you a year later?

I'm starting to see some low commercial sales come through. Not enough to call a trend, but I'm in such a thin market that they can't be ignored. Utilities just went up 25%, insurance said to increase 14% YoY (though I am personally bigger increases than that), and the multipliers on the assessed values are still showing a 10% annual increase. Someone told me that the assessors cannot put different multipliers on commercial properties vs residential, but everybody is getting squeezed here.

30%.

But looking at the market building by building, it looks like it's only my building doing that. Prices in almost all of the other buildings are unchanged. Prices are actually higher in some buildings.

 

[Joe Flacco]

It gapped down 20% at the red line and then slid another 10%.

 

[Airstream]

Still a major supply constraint in my area. Although very slight increase in values. It is hard to know because many areas where I do work are small town and rural so the sales lack conformity and can be all over the place. Recreational waterfront is still going strong even at 7% rates due to a high number of cash buyers. Just did an appraisal on a waterfront property for 4 million. Paying cash. The appraisal was for the buyer to make a buying decision.

Also lots of new construction in some of the areas. But they are modest homes and a lot of twin homes. Twin homes are especially affordable in that 300k to 350k range with some in the 400k to 450k with basements and nicer finishes.

 

[timd354]

30%.

But looking at the market building by building, it looks like it's only my building doing that. Prices in almost all of the other buildings are unchanged. Prices are actually higher in some buildings.

View attachment 112091

It gapped down 20% at the red line and then slid another 10%.

Gawd, I remember that project.....I would imagine that project is now filled with a bunch of old boomers who are dying off.....also, I never liked that location, it has a Bethesda address and is close to DC, but it is not within walking distance of anything worth a crap. It is pretty much just a generic suburban high-rise in a generic location. I cannot imagine that building appealing to anyone who is not at least middle-age, but maybe things have changed there in the 15+ years since I last appraised anything in that project.

 

[Joe Flacco]

Gawd, I remember that project.....I would imagine that project is now filled with a bunch of old boomers who are dying off.....also, I never liked that location, it has a Bethesda address and is close to DC, but it is not within walking distance of anything worth a crap. It is pretty much just a generic suburban high-rise in a generic location. I cannot imagine that building appealing to anyone who is not at least middle-age, but maybe things have changed there in the 15+ years since I last appraised anything in that project.

That whole Westbard area across the street is being redeveloped right now with mixed-use and EYA townhouses. It's not a bad building. All the common areas have been renovated. The problem is high condo fee and no washer / dryer.

 

[timd354]

That whole Westbard area across the street is being redeveloped right now with mixed-use and EYA townhouses. It's not a bad building. All the common areas have been renovated. The problem is high condo fee and no washer / dryer.

Just what the world needs, another fake suburban mixed-use town center, lol but if people there find that appealing, then good on them. I forgot all about the units in that project not having their own washer and dryer.....that is a legacy of that building originally just being a generic rental apartment building, I think it converted to condo sometime in the 1980's right about when Bethesda was starting to become more prosperous.....you are probably too young to remember, but downtown Bethesda really did not have a lot going on before the mid to late 1980's...before that time, there was really no reason to go there for the most part as it was kinda of crappy in the 1970's with a bunch of commercial built in the 1940's and 50's and looking old and tired by that time.....of course the huge concrete plant right in the middle of the downtown area did not help.....what jump stated Bethesda was when the metro opened there in the mid-1980's.

 

[Joe Flacco]

Just what the world needs, another fake suburban mixed-use town center, lol but if people there find that appealing, then good on them. I forgot all about the units in that project not having their own washer and dryer.....that is a legacy of that building originally just being a generic rental apartment building, I think it converted to condo sometime in the 1980's right about when Bethesda was starting to become more prosperous.....you are probably too young to remember, but downtown Bethesda really did not have a lot going on before the mid to late 1980's...before that time, there was really no reason to go there for the most part as it was kinda of crappy in the 1970's with a bunch of commercial built in the 1940's and 50's and looking old and tired by that time.....of course the huge concrete plant right in the middle of the downtown area did not help.....what jump stated Bethesda was when the metro opened there in the mid-1980's.

Westbard was all run down. Anything is better than what was there before.

All 100 townhomes sold out on the first weekend of sales. $1.1M-$2.2M

 

[timd354]

The problem is high condo fee and no washer / dryer.

Yeah, I just looked up some listings in that project and the condo fee is hideous...that is one of the problems with a high-rise that is almost 60 years old - there is undoubtedly a lot of expensive ongoing maintenance issues.

 

[timd354]

Westbard was all run down. Anything is better than what was there before.

All 100 townhomes sold out on the first weekend of sales. $1.1M-$2.2M

True, the Westbard area was pretty crappy.........good for those home buyers who paid $1 or $2 million for a townhouse in a fake suburban town center with a Starbucks, Giant Food grocery and a mix of other generic and fake "local" businesses selling stuff at inflated prices. Additionally, several of those storefronts will be empty within a couple of years...I looked at the project plan and there is really nothing there that is going to attract many people from outside the project to come there except to go in and out of Giant Food and there is not going to be a large enough density of people living within walking distance of the fake town center to support a lot of the retail businesses that will go in there.