Mass Layoffs

[Fernando]

Economy still doing well. Mortgage rates won't be coming down sooner than I expected.

 

[George Hatch]

I want to know who is working, because that cuts down on the creative reimagination of the composition of the "unemployment rate"

 

[Fernando]

I want to know who is working, because that cuts down on the creative reimagination of the composition of the "unemployment rate"

View attachment 84676

View attachment 84677

Overall trend is going up.

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

Overall trend is going up.

But despite a huge growth in illegal immigrants the participation rate is still not what it formerly was? So none of the illegals are "working"? Or, just not being reported?

 

[Dublin ohio]

But despite a huge growth in illegal immigrants the participation rate is still not what it formerly was? So none of the illegals are "working"? Or, just not being reported?

Through August of FY 2023. 2.7M work permits were issued to illegal immigrants. We added about 2.5M jobs in the same time period. But nowhere near enough of those jobs were in the low skilled or unskilled sectors where most of the immigrants could seek employment.

 

[Charles West]

There is something wrong with the numbers irrespective of the large revisions we've seen in the last couple of years. The household numbers weren't very good, but the total number of jobs was good. It either means people are working multiple jobs or the revision is going to be huge. Job growth is mainly in the government/health care/service industries sector and not in manufacturing or other forms of the kind of organic growth you want to see. AI is also a factor or is going to be shortly.

 

[Carnivore]

Our government is borrowing money just to pay the interest payments on money we have a;ready borrowed. So they just print more money.

When the average citizens does the same thing above, We don't get to print more money. It just means Bankruptcy.

I am old, so hopefully I will be dead before it all collapses.

 

[ucbruin]

Trump: ‘I’m the king of debt’​

"“I’m the king of debt. I’m great with debt. Nobody knows debt better than me,” Trump told Norah O’Donnell in an interview that aired on “CBS This Morning.” “I’ve made a fortune by using debt, and if things don’t work out I renegotiate the debt. I mean, that’s a smart thing, not a stupid thing.”"

Trump: 'I'm the king of debt'

Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee for president and self-described 'king of debt,' offered a glimpse into his deal-making playbook Wednesday morning.

www.politico.com

Just renegotiate the debt....

 

[George Hatch]

Overall trend is going up.

We still haven't recovered the entirety of the 02/2020 employment participation rate. Note the rate of increase for the several years prior to 2020. It's not an extreme increase but it was fairly steady. An extrapolation of that line might have been in excess of 64% by 2024 if not for the CCP-Rona.

According to the Census,
The total 18-70 population in 2020 was 223.8M. 67.62% of the total population.
They're not all workers, but still, when multiplied by the 01/2020 labor participation rate of 63.3% that number amounts to 141M.

The total 18-70 population in 2021 was 224.2M. 67.57% of the total (lower than 2020) When multiplied by the 01/2021 labor participation rate of 61.3% that number amounts to 137.5M.

The total 18-70 population in 2022 was 225.1M. 67.55% of the total (again, lower than 2021) When multiplied by the 01/2022 labor participation rate 0f 62.2% that number amounts to 141.5M.

I can't find the population breakdown for 2023, but if we extrapolate the previous 3 years
The total 18-70 population in 2023 might have been ~ 226M. When multiplied by the 01/2023 labor participation rate 0f 62.4% that number amounts to 141M. It's the same NUMBER of workers as 2020 except that the number of people in that age range will have increased by 2.2M people.

For 2024, and continuing the extrapolation of population vs labor force participation rate,
The total 18-70 population in 01/2024 might be ~ 227M. When multiplied by the 01/2024 labor participation rate 0f 62.5% that number amounts to 141.9M. Again, 900,000 more workers than 2020 among a population group that has increased by over 3M people in the last 3 years.

Long story short, the talking point that the reason for the lower percentage is because the population is getting older doesn't work because the number of people in that working age range isn't increasing that fast. It looks to me that we need to add ~630,000 more workers to the economy just to break even and before we get into any actual growth in the labor force participation rates as had been occurring in the years prior to 03/2020. .

 

[OSU Beavers]