MLS statistics

[NJ Valuator]

It downloads the entire file. I then have to delete the columns that are useless. You can filter the factors you want before you go do the download.

the download will look like this
View attachment 97851
Then I just pare it down to the date and price
View attachment 97852Of course, you can glean the outliers from the analysis to get better accuracy

thanks Terrel. much appreciated.

 

[NJ Valuator]

It downloads the entire file. I then have to delete the columns that are useless. You can filter the factors you want before you go do the download.

the download will look like this
View attachment 97851
Then I just pare it down to the date and price
View attachment 97852Of course, you can glean the outliers from the analysis to get better accuracy

so you make the time adjustment based on the % difference of the median sale price on the effective appraisal month compared to the median price of the comparables based on their contract date? what if there is only 1 sale in the effective appraisal month? does it trend everything toward that most recent sale?

 

[alebrewer]

No, that's not at all what I said. The point is that some people use statistics to further an agenda or argument but they cherry pick the data that suits them best ala global warming or Algores graphs. Statistics are very easy to manipulate and, in the "wrong" hands, they can easily be completely useless, or worse, harmful.

Statistical analysis is very helpful in many scenarios. I'm skeptical about their value in real estate valuation other than for overall info for general market analysis. But, IMO, the same goes for regression analysis. I'd put more weight on the opinion of an experienced real estate broker for assistance in valuing real estate or a specific amenity.

But I suppose if you are really, really good with statistical and regression analysis, you could be as good of an appraiser as a forum member that always has his comps adjust to the exact number, out to the $1 level of precision. LOLOL!!!

Statistical analysis is helpful in most any scenario I can imagine. The weather folks use it. City planners use it (queuing theory), heck - even nature uses it (the Golden ratio). Typically, those who poopoo statistics are the folks that don't really understand it. I have no idea whether you understand it or not, but I do know that math can explain pretty much anything - if used properly.

 

[Mark K]

Statistical analysis is helpful in most any scenario I can imagine. The weather folks use it. City planners use it (queuing theory), heck - even nature uses it (the Golden ratio). Typically, those who poopoo statistics are the folks that don't really understand it. I have no idea whether you understand it or not, but I do know that math can explain pretty much anything - if used properly.

I understand it. I've had college statistics, probability, calculus, etc. for engineering. It just that I've been around long enough to see how stats get manipulated by some individuals to fit their narrative and their agenda. OTOH, I don't believe that its necessary for appraising a typical SFR. If it works for you, fine.

Learn math and, IMO, more importantly physics, and the world loses a lot of its mystery.

 

[alebrewer]

Learn math and, IMO, more importantly physics, and the world loses a lot of its mystery.

Absolutely!

 

[Sadie]

What if there is only 1 comparable sale on the effective appraisal month? Then everything is being based on that 1 sale.

You are getting too granular. Zoom out to a more general market, Say all sales of homes in XYZ zip codes for the previous year. If its rural maybe add a wide range of acreage.You need enough data for a credbole analysis. The market conditions at the time are all of the sales your defined area, not just the tiny results of your comp search.

 

[J Grant]

You are getting too granular. Zoom out to a more general market, Say all sales of homes in XYZ zip codes for the previous year. If its rural maybe add a wide range of acreage.You need enough data for a credbole analysis. The market conditions at the time are all of the sales your defined area, not just the tiny results of your comp search.

Sometimes the smaller but relevant set of comps and sales from the subject property type and area how a different trend than the general and wide market - and Fannie and Freddie and FAQ state teh appraiser should explain the difference

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

how stats get manipulated by some individuals to fit their narrative and their agenda.

Darrel Huff's book has been out 70 years and is still accurate and he's been dead for over 20 years.

 

[Mark K]

Absolutely!

View attachment 97858

You have to love Fibonacci; found in nature in so many ways!

 

[alebrewer]

You have to love Fibonacci; found in nature in so many ways!

The Golden Ratio is a most fascinating subject. Nature, Roman architecture, human face. Its everywhere around us.