NAR’s Move To Replace Real Estate Appraisers With RVM’s

[jay trotta]

Data is cheap. Reconcilation is expensive.

I welcome all the AVMs in the world. I've yet to see how one could capture the nuances of a Victorian, the market appeal of a view, the benefit of an accessory unit the quality of a renovation, etc...

The appraisal field is definately undergoing significant changes. IMO, the burden of our final analysis will continue to be measured against the AVMs. I won't be surprised if AVMs replace a large chunk of slam dunk assignments with low LTV considerations. But you can be certain that when the AVM balks, we will be called in to prove why it is wrong.

Great idea Doug, perhaps we are looking in all the wrong places for business now, and into the future. If the "To Large To Fail" group has that intent and they all elect to put us out of business, Why not open pandora's box for the "Public" at large ?? We are and have been the "Gold Standard" for a long time, maybe we just need to re-direct our "Professional Work" to what has been touted for years and help protect the Public Interest At Large".
We all know the AVM - RpR crowd will lack credability and therefore, we can increase our Attorney work, additionally.
When one door shuts / another will open........we just need to put a handle on it to open up for US.

 

[Kali the Boston Terrier]

I was going to save this idea for my PHd paper in a few years...but what the heck. If you want to disprove an AVM or RVM, all you have to do is take a sale the minute it goes under contract (or pending). When the sale finally closes and you have sale information...update your database. If everyone does this in all of our markets...what you will find is that 100% of the AVM and RVM results miss the sale price. How much they miss it will ultimately determine the strength of the AVM/RVM. Aggregatre all the information, publish it and tesify for it...I bet it will not take long for the AVM and RVM crowds to slink back in their shadows. One thing we have going for us is that residential is a highly emotional buying decision...it does not lend itself well to computer models.

 

[CJHNV]

They may not want to work with us in 10 years, who knows. It will really be a lesson in supply and demand. Lets say, hypothetically, that the Realtor AVM meets most lenders needs and appraisers are no longer needed for the majority of lender work. What % of the total # of current active appraisers would the market need to fill the needs of private, non lender work? 10%? 20%? I can't see anyway even 50% of the total # now would be needed in a market like that?

This kind of attrition seems to be happening anyway... We used to get 4 or 5 calls a week from people wanting to intern with us.
My dad (and mentor) did not renew his appraiser cert this past year - retiring from appraising (after 35 years) - I guess at 87 he can drop one of his careers :laugh:.
But I'm noticing a lot of the "old timers" in my area are giving it up. I'm trying to diversify and hang on because I don't want to start over and I love the flexibility.

For what it's worth - our MLS sent out a message about the new RPR (or whatever it's called) stating that they were "evaluating" the benefits to membership and whether or not they would be participating.

Guess we'll see what happens!

 

[CJHNV]

I was going to save this idea for my PHd paper in a few years...but what the heck. If you want to disprove an AVM or RVM, all you have to do is take a sale the minute it goes under contract (or pending). When the sale finally closes and you have sale information...update your database. If everyone does this in all of our markets...what you will find is that 100% of the AVM and RVM results miss the sale price. How much they miss it will ultimately determine the strength of the AVM/RVM. Aggregatre all the information, publish it and tesify for it...I bet it will not take long for the AVM and RVM crowds to slink back in their shadows. One thing we have going for us is that residential is a highly emotional buying decision...it does not lend itself well to computer models.

Do you mean because the market is changing so much between contract and close?

PS - what's your dissertation topic?

 

[JSmith43]

The AVM's can't smell the cat urine in the carpet. They don't hear the neighbor's pit bulls barking. They have no appreciation of gang tagging art adorning a garage or decorating inspired by cable shopping networks.

AVM's are indifferent to proposed frontage road widening to the full right of way width or recent property use restrictions delivered via zoning ordinance refinement or activation of code enforcement programs.

AVMs don't read the papers.

An enlightened AVM model would factor in changes in employment statistics and all sorts of factors in an econometric model so complex that it would make a climate scientist blush. And then, it would get it all wrong, because it wouldn't factor in that the area all of a sudden turned into a trendy people watching grand central just down the block.

AVM's need commander DATA's emotion chip. And it better not be a fake chip.

 

[Doug DeMars]

In the end its about accountability.

Many will declare the value added by the services by an appriasier pivots on our unbiased opinion. Unfortunately, you can't prove one to be unbiased despite all the bible swearing, certifications and firewalls that are invented. AVMs, RVMs, etc...are about as unbaised as you can get and the end result is knowing that an AVM or 'live' appraiser can be both just as 'wrong' or 'right' in comparison. Our true value pivots on our willingness to be accountable for our analysis. The real concern for alternate types of valuation methods isn't about their perceived accuracy; it will come the day they can also take liability for their conclusions.

 

[moh malekpour]

NAR’s Second Century Initiatives include the creation of the Realtors Property ResourceTM (RPR), an online real estate library/archive that will provide real estate professionals with data on every property in the United States.

This initiative will provide access to a national database of real property information and will give real estate professionals the best access to real property information needed to serve their clients and customers. It will include in-depth, trusted information on every parcel of real property including public record information, details of prior transactions, MLS-provided information, zoning information, transfer tax information, and other relevant information.

The initiative will be based on the collaborative efforts of REALTORS® and the real estate community, including MLSs. It will drive development and implementation of data standards and definitions, and will increase the breadth, depth, immediacy and power of real estate information available to REALTORS®.

BENEFITS & HIGHLIGHTS

The RPR™ will provide unmatched access to a single-source national compilation of tax and assessment data; property data; neighborhood, school, demographic and psychographic information; and maps, trends and reports. It will be exclusive to members of NAR, and members of subscribing MLS/CIE’s who are participants of the RPR

Members who register with a valid NRDS ID can access non-proprietary, non-MLS/CIE sourced data; however, only MLS/CIE Subscribers/Participants will be able to view MLS/CIE sourced information. There will be no public access to the RPR™, and the database and its data cannot be shared through consumer websites.

The RPR™ is not a national MLS, and will carry no offers of cooperation and compensation. Its design is to provide a single-source access for public record information for commercial, residential and vacant land such as tax assessments and comparable data, liens, zoning, permits, environmental, neighborhoods, school districts and community demographics

have you ever used psychographic information for your appraisals?

 

[Greenback]

...They may not want to work with us in 10 years, who knows.

Hopefully.

I think Appraisers need to pull the plug before they can actually say it and mean it (in an over confident manner).

...It will really be a lesson in supply and demand.

I agree. Also, it will be a history marker for the profession, as well as, for the market.

...Lets say, hypothetically, that the Realtor AVM meets most lenders needs and appraisers are no longer needed for the majority of lender work.

It would mean the beginning of that era. Era may be too strong of a word, but, it represents. It will turn into advertising and they'll throw lights on it, have a smooth talker selling it, and it will dissolve eventually. That's my assessment as of today. They are shooting themself in the foot. It's true 100% economic suicide.

...What % of the total # of current active appraisers would the market need to fill the needs of private, non lender work? 10%? 20%? I can't see anyway even 50% of the total # now would be needed in a market like that?

I agree with that thinking pattern. I think 50% would be very optimistic.

How unique do you think that market may be?

Sincerely,

 

[Greenback]

...It would appear to me that "Technology" is well beyond where it should be;

lol - no doubt. The lending industry is 'mad'. (english terminology).

Where there is money, there is power (unless you get caught using that power- fraudulantly) which is where this will all end up.

There's bound to be breadcrumbs.

Right now, Bankers/Lenders are in the begining stages of "herding", they are circling the wagons to control everything. The public at large has no idea this is happening, will be told some wild stories about "how good it's going to be for them" and take total control of how people live. The empty suits are attempting to control USSR/America and getting closer day by day - greed is very much alive and has been allowed to grow thru your Elected officials.

Good paragraph. The vipers are striking.

Plan ahead, it appears we're being attacked by the white collar group in grand fashion - it is interesting to watch the snake slither thru the grass, I wonder if it gains speed when the grass is on fire ??

The bold in the last paragraph: funny; vipers do belong in the pit.

Sincerely,

 

[Greenback]

...When one door shuts / another will open........we just need to put a handle on it to open up for US.

I agree.

Sincerely,