New market analysis changes.

[alebrewer]

One REALLY EASY methodology that has been touched on, but not really fleshed out is model comparisons. Just did a pull for the 75023 zip code in Plano, TX.
Sale 1: Sold at $425k in 01/24; DNA: 1802' GLA, blt in 1984, 0.19 acres, 3/2/2 room/garage count, Low C3
Sale 2: sold at $419k in 01/25; DNA: 1932' GLA, blt in 1984, 0.18 acres, 3/2/2 room/garage count, Low C3

Of course, this is only one pair - and we know the faults of using 'one pair' in a paired sales analysis, but this is really supportable stuff - and no advanced math is necessary.

 

[Joe Flacco]

Ok - so your argument is that folks sell nicer homes in the spring and crappier homes in the winter? That's gonna be a tough argument to quantify, my friend.

That is what happens. At the micro level, a lot of the properties that sell towards the end of the year are properties that were on the market in spring and summer but were priced too high for what they were. And they are finally selling after enough price cuts.

 

[CGinMN]

Desperate people and estates sell on a steady schedule year-round. People who can plan their sales have higher financial security and turn-key properties to sell at the most optimal time of the season.

 

[alebrewer]

That is what happens. At the micro level, a lot of the properties that sell towards the end of the year are properties that were on the market in spring and summer but were priced too high for what they were. And they are finally selling after enough price cuts.

Interesting hypothesis, and I'm not saying you're wrong. I'm saying that the amount of time it would take to quantify that hypothesis is beyond the scope of anything I'd want to include in my appraisal analyses...

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

Look at this great tool from FB. Let's auto-adjust the summer and fall sales down 10-20%.

being facetious I hope

his timing adjustments were based on ONLY the 5, sometimes 6 comparables he used on the report......Holy Hell, blew me away. He was shocked that I was shocked

Timing has a lot to do with the success of an Indian Rain Dance

They keep trying to turn something into a science that isn’t a science.

That's the problem. They all want it to fit the computer algorithm and eventually to eliminate the human element so that they can eliminate the appraiser entirely and pocket that money themselves.

we know the faults of using 'one pair' in a paired sales analysis

and making sure the pairs are really pairs and not dissimilar to the point of being distorted in adjusting to "equal"

 

[CGinMN]

How can you argue prices are sticky if you think prices are fluctuating by 10% and peak to trough every year?

 

[Joe Flacco]

Interesting hypothesis, and I'm not saying you're wrong. I'm saying that the amount of time it would take to quantify that hypothesis is beyond the scope of anything I'd want to include in my appraisal analyses...

You don't need to quantify it. You just need to know that it happens and understand that the fewer number of transactions in the winter can skew the median price.

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

I'm saying that the amount of time it would take to quantify that hypothesis is beyond the scope of anything I'd want to include in my appraisal analyses...

therein lies the rub...how 'accurate' your time adjustment relates to how much time you spend massaging the numbers.

 

[alebrewer]

and making sure the pairs are really pairs and not dissimilar to the point of being distorted in adjusting to "equal"

Easy enough given the data that's available to those in a 'review' capacity. Look up these two addresses and see if you agree:

3244 Portside, Plano TX
3224 Portside, Plano TX

 

[alebrewer]

You don't need to quantify it. You just need to know that it happens and understand that the fewer number of transactions in the winter can skew the median price.

'knowing' and 'hypothesizing' are two different things.