New market analysis changes.

[ZZGAMAZZ]

Ok - so your argument is that folks sell nicer homes in the spring and crappier homes in the winter? That's gonna be a tough argument to quantify, my friend.

I'd love to see results of a Review Master that Alerewer n Fernando create that would include a wiseacre comment for every flagged item, e.g., "The local market having been described as 'Increasing' contradicts the cost of the appraiser's continuing education" or "this review is exhausting even for a bot" or "this review reveals that the appraiser, like many redundant USPAP items, should be retired as soon as possible." Just for fun!

 

[Joe Flacco]

'knowing' and 'hypothesizing' are two different things.

A median price based on 30 sales in the spring and 30 sales in the summer being more reliable than median price based on 10 sales in winter is not hypothesizing. It is statistical fact.

That is why people are showing wacky results like in the FB post showing 10% decline from the fall and the datamaster post showing 10% increase from the fall.

 

[ZZGAMAZZ]

'knowing' and 'hypothesizing' are two different things.

Like my mentor advised me as a trainee "You cant describe an assignment as 'Complex' just because you're too dumb to know what you're doing." Yep he was insightful as all get-out....

 

[J Grant]

paired sales does not mean matched pairs

The parish can be similar houses adjusted for key features to make them equivalent.
One pair is not enough to tell us that 5 pairs can, especially combined with other indicators, most recent listings and or a chart, etc.

 

[alebrewer]

A median price based on 30 sales in the spring and 30 sales in the summer being more reliable than median price based on 10 sales in winter is not hypothesizing.

This is a mathematical argument that is true - period (at least in the context of 'reliable' meaning less variability), and has nothing to do with the argument that more crappier homes sell in the winter than in the spring/summer.

Try these two:
3501 Santana Ln was the median sale for Spring Creek Pky Estates in the summer/fall of 2024 (10/24).
3304 Sailmaker Ln was the median sale for Spring Creek Pky Estates in the winter of 2024 (02/24).

In this case, Sailmaker is the smaller home and sold for ~ $40k more than Santana. Nearly identical condition. I will say that DOM was longer for the one in the winter, but that's to be expected.

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

the argument that crappier homes sell in the winter than in the spring/summer.

the best get picked first and the worst get picked last when the picking is slim and prices are falling. Today's email is full of price reductions and open houses, etc.

 

[alebrewer]

the best get picked first and the worst get picked last when the picking is slim and prices are falling. Today's email is full of price reductions and open houses, etc.

Like I said - I don't disagree with the hypothesis in principle - but demonstrating that quantitatively is a different animal.

 

[Joe Flacco]

This is a mathematical argument that is true - period (at least in the context of 'reliable' meaning less variability), and has nothing to do with the argument that more crappier homes sell in the winter than in the spring/summer.

Try these two:
3501 Santana Ln was the median sale for Spring Creek Pky Estates in the summer/fall of 2024 (10/24).
3304 Sailmaker Ln was the median sale for Spring Creek Pky Estates in the winter of 2024 (02/24).

In this case, Sailmaker is the smaller home and sold for ~ $40k more than Santana. Nearly identical condition. I will say that DOM was longer for the one in the winter, but that's to be expected.

That is not the same cycle. That is the winter before and the following fall, not the spring / summer and the following fall / winter.

What you are looking at would suggest that prices are declining on a year over year basis.

 

[alebrewer]

That is not the same cycle. That is the winter before and the following fall, not the summer / fall and the following winter.

What you are looking at would suggest that prices are declining on a year over year basis.

Right... carry on.

 

[Joe Flacco]

Right... carry on.