October surprise

[Zoe]

Fernando, you and Charles are probably in this elite group.

This is highest percentage reported in history of USA on who is spending the most on consumer spending.

America's wealthiest households driving nearly half of consumer spending: Moody's

The top 10% of American households in terms of income earned are driving nearly half of all U.S. consumer spending, according to a new analysis by Moody's Analytics.

www.foxbusiness.com

America's wealthiest households driving nearly half of consumer spending: Moody's​

The U.S. economy's reliance on spending by high-income households could represent a risk of the trend reversing.​

Tariffs are hurting the more than 50% of households with income below the top 10% income earners.

Let me rephrase that. Tariffs are hurting the average American making less than the top 10% in America the worst. So Tariffs are hurting 90% of income earners in America because 90% of America's income earners are below the top 10% income earners.

Think about that long and hard.

 

[Fernando]

Fernando, you and Charles are probably in this elite group.

This is highest percentage reported in history of USA on who is spending the most on consumer spending.

America's wealthiest households driving nearly half of consumer spending: Moody's

The top 10% of American households in terms of income earned are driving nearly half of all U.S. consumer spending, according to a new analysis by Moody's Analytics.

www.foxbusiness.com

America's wealthiest households driving nearly half of consumer spending: Moody's​

The U.S. economy's reliance on spending by high-income households could represent a risk of the trend reversing.​

Tariffs are hurting the more than 50% of households with income below the top 10% income earners.

Let me rephrase that. Tariffs are hurting the average American making less than the top 10% in America the worst. So Tariffs are hurting 90% of income earners in America because 90% of America's income earners are below the top 10% income earners.

Think about that long and hard.

Could be since I pay over $2,000 on credit cards every month.

 

[Fernando]

Stock market dropped again today. Little worry that it's a beginning of a major downfall.
Still haven't stopped my spending habits especially going out to eat.

 

[Fernando]

MSN

Market crash fears grow as pro-Trump billionaire dumps major tech stock​

Venture capitalist and supporter of President Donald Trump Peter Thiel became the latest billionaire to sell off all of his stock in the tech company Nvidia, according to new reporting Monday, sparking panic that a market “bubble” centered around artificial intelligence may burst at any moment and send the market into a downward spiral.

 

[Gobears81]

MSN

Market crash fears grow as pro-Trump billionaire dumps major tech stock​

Venture capitalist and supporter of President Donald Trump Peter Thiel became the latest billionaire to sell off all of his stock in the tech company Nvidia, according to new reporting Monday, sparking panic that a market “bubble” centered around artificial intelligence may burst at any moment and send the market into a downward spiral.

If you watch net liquidity, there is no surprise that news like this comes out now.

Fear-Greed Index at 14 and last AAII investors survey has bears outnumbering bulls 49% to 32%. The Economist has a cover of how the AI bubble bursting can push the economy into a recession. All of this makes me think that the top is further out.

 

[Joe Flacco]

Here is an update of where we are in the secular bull market.

 

[Joe Flacco]

When you read "market crash", the first thing you have to ask is what do they mean by "market crash"?

Are they talking about a 20-30% decline within the secular bull market? Are they saying a big sell off is coming before the trend resumes?

Or are they talking about the end of the secular bull market? Are they saying the market is looking at zero percent returns for the next 15 years?

 

[Joe Flacco]

We are well into the second half of the secular bull market. If this one is like the last, then the S&P 500 will be around $20,000 in 2030. Then it will be in a range of around $10,000 and $20,000 for the next 10-15 years.

S&P 500 is $6,672 today, so we are kind of getting to that point where returns might not look great, depending on when you are looking at it in the future. It would look great in 2030 with 300% returns in five years, but then by 2035, if it is back down to $10,000, then the returns won't look great. That would be only 50% return over 10 years at the lows of the next secular bear market.

I have been wondering if we would limp into the secular bear like the 70's (stagflation) or if it would blow off into the secular bear like the 2000's (tech bubble). I was leaning towards it limping in, but now I am leaning more towards a blow off with AI bubble.

 

[Fernando]

Dow Jones dropping again today.
I'm hoping by end of year Stock Markets increased at least 10% from beginning of this year. If Biden was in office, I also expected at least 10% increase.
I thought Trump was going to boast stock market significantly by now.