One woman's opinion.....and I agree

[NC Appraising]

She's part of the crash bros.....been preaching the crash for several years now. They will eventually be right.....it should've crash several years ago.

She is probably right. Shet will hit the fan when the national economy contracts.

Demand for riskier mortgages rises again, along with interest rates

Mortgage rates continue to climb, so more borrowers are turning to adjustable rate mortgages, which offer lower interest rates comparatively.

www.cnbc.com

 

[NC Appraising]

Some more crash bros that she hangs out with. Most of these should have for entertainment purposes only

King of the crash bros....this guy is a trip doomed and gloom for 5 plus years now LOL

 

[NC Appraising]

New home builders are still offering 4.99% 30 year fixed loans.

Track resales in those pud developments where the builder had 20-40k in rate buydowns.

I just did one. Purchased home in 2023 new for $407, under contract now for $367k.

The lower class will feel it the most. That market will crash.

Middle and upper class are just trading the free equity in there homes. When the equity goes down, I predict no major crash. Most will just not sell or break even....

 

[Airstream]

None of the present oil market conditions are permanent or structural. Yes oil is up but that is not permanent. My bet is oil will be back in the low 70’s next year. And that is what Golman Sachs predicts and they are often pessimistic. I would be more concerned about 40 trillion in debt. That affects rates more than anything. Remember the 70s and high rates? That was a result of loose monetary and fiscal policy. The fact is more people now have higher mortgage rates than low rates. At some point people sell and move. People die. They sell. People get paid led and sell. People can’t hold on to their house forever. When I built homes and warned people about floor plans the would say, “But we are going to live until we die.” Never happened.

 

[Joe Flacco]

Oil is going to a new range.

 

[Airstream]

Oil is going to a new range.

I don’t think so. That is based upon a faulty assumption the Strait is the forever problem. Not going to happen. The world won’t let it happen. The Strait issue will be solved through all kinds of different means in particular pipelines, etc., and there is a glut of oil. If the Strait wasn’t an issue oil would be about $70 to $72 a barrel. The price of diesel right now has nothing to do with oil production as much as refinery issues in particular the Ukraine war. Ukrainian drone attacks have damaged key Russian refineries, leading Russia to ban diesel exports. Worldwide refining capacity is tight, and there are fewer operational plants capable of turning heavy crude into diesel. Existing U.S. plants are already running near maximum operational capacity (around 90% to 97%), leaving little room to pump out more fuel without major risks. So the price of diesel isn’t JUST about the price of oil. Something many people fail to grasp. Also when the conflict ends (and it will) there will be an immediate glut of oil on the market that will drive prices down.

Price Scenarios for 2027

• 
  
• • Baseline Forecast: Average around $80/bbl, assuming ongoing adaptation to shipping constraints in the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea. [1, 2]
  • Pessimistic/Upside Risk: Exceed $120/bbl if Gulf output stays roughly 4 million barrels per day below pre-war levels due to prolonged conflict. [1]
  • Bear Case/Downside: Fall toward $60/bbl if regional output recovers faster than expected and non-OPEC supply growth outpaces weak demand. [1, 2]

 

[Airstream]

Real estate crash? I think this lady is goofy. The reasons for the previous real estate crash were foreclosures and bad paper mixed with good. That’s not going to happen. That doesn’t mean prices won’t go down. Already prices are not keeping up with inflation. So we already have some de-valuation in appreciation. Will there be a further correction? Probably. But it will be more localized and not a national crash. I expect in cities or regions that are becoming less popular due to overall cost of living those will see the biggest declines. In other areas, not necessarily. There still is a tight supply. The only way that changes is if there is a major building push or massive foreclosures or people moving out of an area for economic reasons. Thus this lady is goofy. She reminds me of the constant bears in the stock market. They are like Chicken Little that are constantly calling for a crash. Anyone that follows their advice would put their money in a mattress and build a bomb shelter. Goofy.

 

[Joe Flacco]

I don’t think so. That is based upon a faulty assumption the Strait is the forever problem. Not going to happen. The world won’t let it happen. The Strait issue will be solved through all kinds of different means in particular pipelines, etc., and there is a glut of oil. If the Strait wasn’t an issue oil would be about $70 to $72 a barrel. The price of diesel right now has nothing to do with oil production as much as refinery issues in particular the Ukraine war. Ukrainian drone attacks have damaged key Russian refineries, leading Russia to ban diesel exports. Worldwide refining capacity is tight, and there are fewer operational plants capable of turning heavy crude into diesel. Existing U.S. plants are already running near maximum operational capacity (around 90% to 97%), leaving little room to pump out more fuel without major risks. So the price of diesel isn’t JUST about the price of oil. Something many people fail to grasp. Also when the conflict ends (and it will) there will be an immediate glut of oil on the market that will drive prices down.

Price Scenarios for 2027

• 
  
• • Baseline Forecast: Average around $80/bbl, assuming ongoing adaptation to shipping constraints in the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea. [1, 2]
  • Pessimistic/Upside Risk: Exceed $120/bbl if Gulf output stays roughly 4 million barrels per day below pre-war levels due to prolonged conflict. [1]
  • Bear Case/Downside: Fall toward $60/bbl if regional output recovers faster than expected and non-OPEC supply growth outpaces weak demand. [1, 2]

I don't think it will be at a new range in 2027. I do think it is going to a new range in next 5 years. Above $140 per barrel.

It's not clear what the cause will be but we will find out.

 

[Airstream]

Housing prices continue to increase yet fewer people can afford to buy. We are in a war that may not end soon, oil is back up to $100 a barrel, we have a lunatic in the White House, we have pissed off nearly every country in the world, tariffs are up and down minute by minute, new home builders are making little if any profit. Seeing too many new sub-divisions with nothing but white pipes sticking out of the ground. Interest rates likely to go up but not down. The housing market has declined in listings and sales. Things are not looking great....but hey, I am no expert.

My guess is you don’t have money in the stock market with your understanding of things. Get a big mattress.

 

[Airstream]

I don't think it will be at a new range in 2027. I do think it is going to a new range in next 5 years. Above $140 per barrel.

It's not clear what the cause will be but we will find out.

On what basis or analysis? Oh, wait.,.It’s not clear…