Overall Market Trend (Min 12 months)

[Joe Flacco]

This is what they are saying. The overall trend is the yellow arrows. Not the Red arrows.

 

[alebrewer]

It is the latest trend, a last quarter trend, for example, that indicates where the market is and going for the very near future -despite what it did past tense the first 8-9 months- all of it should be commented on, of course.

No argument that the 'latest' trend could indicate a declining market. It could also indicate a cyclical market that is still trending upward. The 'latest' trend has to be analyzed in context with a longer period of time. The thought process is that a 12 month cycle should capture any cyclical fluctuation, thus that's why they want P1 to reflect the 12 month trend.

 

[alebrewer]

View attachment 96099

This is what they are saying. The overall trend is the yellow arrows. Not the Red arrows.

exactly!

 

[Joe Flacco]

Overall trend is increasing. Every quarter is higher than a year ago.

 

[alebrewer]

I know of no other market that is as consistently cyclical as yours...

 

[J Grant]

exactly!

But he based it on an 8 year period of time

 

[alebrewer]

But he based it on an 8 year period of time

Ok - base his graph on a 12 month period - it's still increasing over the prior 12 months and the Q1 price point is still lower than the Q4 price point.

 

[Fernando]

I think the purpose of having appraisers try and adjust comps up and down, month to month based on market fluctuations (similar to stock prices) is to try and make our appraisals look and function more like the collateral underwriting system and Zillow’s valuation algorithm. I think the CU system also had trouble keeping within the 15%net/25% gross guidelines which is probably why those were done away with too.

The more our appraisals and techniques look like those derived by collateral underwriter the more they can discount what it is that we do.

The 1004MC was a joke It can be easily manipulated with the chosen stats. It was an exercise to confirm what we wanted.
Never had any complaints on my 1004MC.
Now Fannie wants us to analyze deeper and more standardize especially with 12 month trend.

 

[Joe Flacco]

I know of no other market that is as consistently cyclical as yours...

Texas is the same. 2021-2022 kind of went straight up but other than that it is back to normal seasonal patterns.

 

[Joe Flacco]

Overall trend doesn't only apply to price data. It applies to everything else.

Like above, the number of closed sales is higher YOY for the last two quarters after 12 quarters lower YOY. For now, I would described this as stabilizing following a declining trend from 2021 levels.